Germany is planning to vote for a historic increase in defence spending

What happens today here in Berlin will affect the future of Europe’s defense and the continued support for Ukraine.

German parliament Bundestagg is voting to remove brakes from defence spending. This could pave the way for a massive uplift in military investment, just as Russia is profiting from the signal that Europe cannot rely on US protection, as it is profiting in Ukraine.

“This vote on the Bundesag is absolutely important,” says Professor Monika Schnitzer, chairing the German Council of Economic Experts.

“After the security conference in Munich, after Trump Zelensky’s queue, Europe received a wake-up call, the first time Europeans could not rely on Washington.

“As the largest defence budget holder in the region, the outlook for European defence spending depends on Germany’s development,” agrees Dr. Fenella McGartie, a senior fellow in defense economics at the London-based Institute for International Strategic Studies.

Last year, Germany’s defence spending rose 23.2% last year, helping Europe’s defence spending rise 11.7%.

“The incredible initiative announced in Germany is key to enabling further growth,” adds Dr. McGerty.

“Without them, progress in strengthening Germany’s military capabilities could have stagnated.”

Germany’s new prime minister, Friedrich Merz, is on the verge of competition with time.

The new council will be convened on March 25th and will not be in favor of all this money specifically spent on defense.

Both the far-right AFD party and the far-left Linke have vowed to oppose it. As two-thirds of votes need to be in favor, Meltz is more likely to happen today under existing (old) Congress. It must then be approved by a German senator.

Meanwhile, Europe still agrees with the shock of the announcement from the Trump administration.

At a security conference in Munich last month, I saw a representative sitting open-mouthed after hearing the ferocious attacks of the US Vice President on European policies on immigration and freedom of speech.

This a few days ago, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegses told NATO members that America’s 80-year European defensive umbrella should not be taken for granted.

European defence strategists are already planning what is unthinkable. It plans to profit in Ukraine and then rebuild its army and threaten NATO eastern members, such as the Baltic Sea, within three years.

This is when the US commitment to European defense is becoming very unstable. President Trump has been urged by some in his circle to separate US troops from Europe and withdraw entirely from NATO.

There is talk of France expanding its national nuclear deterrence to cover other European countries.

Meanwhile, most European governments are under pressure to increase their defence spending after years of cuts.

The British Army has now reduced to the smallest size since the Napoleonic Wars more than 200 years ago, with experts predicting that ammunition will run out within two weeks of fighting a full-scale traditional war in Europe.

Germany has long been cautious about defense spending, not just for historical reasons dating back to 1945, but also due to the global debt crisis of 2009.

It brings us back to today’s important votes on the bandettag. It’s not just defense. One part is to free up 500 million euros (£4200 billion) for German infrastructure. Not only do they fix things like bridges and roads, they also pay for climate action.

Another part is to remove the constitutional restrictions on borrowing that could, in theory, be freed of unlimited billions of europes for defence spending, for both German troops and Pan-European Defence Funds. On March 4th, European Commission Chairman Ursula von der Leyen announced plans for a 800 million euro defence fund called the Liam Europe Fund.

The proposal voted in Berlin is that spending on defense, which amounts to more than 1% of Germany’s national wealth (GDP) will no longer be subject to borrowing restrictions. Until now, this debt cap was fixed at 0.35 pct of GDP.

Other countries are looking closely to see if the proposal passes. Otherwise, the EU Commission’s “Rearm Europe” project could have a volatile start.

Security challenges in Europe today are tough. What should the continent do to fill the gap if the US no longer has its back, or at least not be able to resort to coming to Europe’s defense?

Let’s start with the numbers. According to the Kiel Institute, which tracks these things in detail, Europe spends just 0.1% of its wealth to help Ukraine advocacy, while the US spends 0.15%.

“So Giuseppe Ito of the Kiel Institute says, “If Europe makes up for the shortfall, it will need to double its contribution to 0.21%.”

But regardless of what’s going on in Berlin today, this isn’t just about money.

Many of the most sought after weapons in Ukrainian arsenals come from the United States, like Patriot Air Defence and long-range gun systems like HIMARS. The Kiel Institute has acquired a Ukrainian rocket gun percentage of 86% from the US, and 82% of how guns are also sold in the US.

Then there is the issue of US intelligence reporting aid for Kyiv, many of which stem from satellite and geospatial images. If Washington turns it off forever, the Ukrainian army risks being partially blind.

If American nuclear weapons are taken from the equation, there is a huge gap between Russia’s more than 5,000 warheads and the total British and French nuclear sums, reaching less than a tenth of that. But it remains sufficient to act in theory as a nuclear deterrent.

As for “conventional”: Nuclear-free weapons, Western defense chiefs like to say that NATO’s combined forces are superior to Russian troops.

Perhaps, but if there is one obvious lesson to get out of the Ukrainian war, it is that the “population” is important. Although the Russian army may be of poor quality, Putin has been able to throw such a huge number of men, drones, shells and missiles at the forefront of Ukraine, where Russians are slowly and at great cost, mercilessly advancing.

This should not be a surprise. Moscow placed its economy on the foothold of the war some time ago. He appointed an economist as Minister of Defense, remodeling many factories and stirring up enormous amounts of munitions, especially explosive chip drones.

Many European countries have limped by increasing defensive spending, well above 2% of GDP, while Russia is close to 7%. Approximately 40% of Russia’s national budget is spent on defense.

So Europe has quite a catch-up if it even gets closer to augmenting defense and security.

“If the vote passes, it will be important for Germany and Europe,” said Ed Arnold, senior researcher at European Security at the Royal United Services Institute think tank.

“It sets precedents and allows others to follow… But three years after the Ukrainian invasion, the German incident reminds us that more money for defense is needed but not enough.

“Europe needs defense and security leaders who can navigate the rapidly deteriorating security environment of the Euro-Atlantic. Cultural things, not financial reform, are the most valuable to Europe today.”