(Full NCAA Tournament Bracket Revealed | Printable Bracket)
That’s the most predictable part of your Sunday choice.
More teams believe they deserve a bid for the NCAA Men’s Tournament than they have space in the brackets of 68 teams each year.
Three years ago, Texas A&M coach Buzz Williams distributed a nine-page manifesto claiming that Aggies were incorrect and that overhauls would be required in the selection process. Last year, Big East called it “unsurprisingly very disappointed” about the historically small number of selected teams. The bubble team, handed over to North Carolina in March this year, had the most reason to smoke after removing the bracket on Sunday evening.
Many amateur bracket scholars predicted they would narrowly miss 68 fields as they went from one to 12 in a quadrant game and defeated only one projected NCAA tournament team throughout the year. The committee apparently felt otherwise, and awarded one of the final large bids to Tar Heel (22-13) for top 40 metrics and strong schedule strength.
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North Carolina has experienced a relief of hearing its name, but the other bubble teams weren’t that lucky. This is the biggest NCAA tournament snub of the year, starting in West Virginia, where the governor threatened legal action against the NCAA after the climbers were not invited.
1. West Virginia (19-13)
Kenpom: 53 | Net: 51 | Q1: 6-10 | Q2: 4-3 | Q3: 4-0 | Q4: 5-0
West Virginia paid a big price for a terrible loss to Colorado’s last Colorado in the opening game of the Big 12 tournament. The climber comfortably avoided the first four in most bracket predictions before missing out on the NCAA tournament entirely.
The West Virginia omission was a huge surprise. This defeated Gonzaga and Arizona in November, overcoming the loss of outstanding guard Tucker DeBreeze, and went .500 on the sturdy Big 12. The climbers went 6-9 late in the season and did not beat the NCAA Tournament Caliber Team over a single NCAA Tournament Caliber Team during that stretch.
2. Indiana Hoosiers (19-13)
Kenpom: 48 | Net: 54 | Q1: 4-13 | Q2: 5-0 | Q3: 6-0 | Q4: 5-0
Indiana head coach Mike Woodson announced that “Fire Woodson” would step down at the end of the season in early February as rain fell in the assembly hall and pressure from the media and his administration increased. The Hoosiers then began to perform like the top 25 teams in the preseason. They are unlikely to be Big Ten champion Michigan. They defeated Purdue and fellow bubble team Ohio State. They came in one or two buckets against Michigan and UCLA.
It was a respectable finish, nearly winning Woodson in his third NCAA Tournament in four seasons, but it wasn’t enough to make up for a seven-loss midseason stretch in eight games. Both Hoosiers’ prediction and resume-based metrics were fairly low. They had one victory with four quadrants, but they needed many opportunities to get them. They finished four games under .500 against the top two quadrants.
3. Boise State (24-10)
Kenpom: 50 | Net: 43 | Q1: 3-6 | Q2: 5-2 | Q3: 5-1 | Q4: 10-1
There was good reason to believe Boise State did enough to win an NCAA Tournament bid on Sunday. The Broncos have fallen Clemson and St. Mary’s, actively scheduled in non-league plays. They won 14 games in the Mountain West regular season, progressing to the Mountain West Tournament title game, expelling two of the conference’s best teams along the way.
Why did the committee rule out Boise? Certainly, it didn’t help that the Broncos were one of the only bubble teams to have been injured in Quadrant 4, and that it was a 63-61 loss to 19 Los Boston College in the Cayman Islands Classic title game in November.
“Because on the third day of the tournament, Boston College will beat us by hitting the Stepback 3. Boise State coach Leon Rice asked incredibly Saturday night when he spoke to reporters about his team’s NCAA Tournament incident.
Apparently that’s true. All games are important when the margins between bubble teams are very thin.
4. UC Irvine (28-6)
Kenpom: 65 | Net: 60 | Q1: 1-1 | Q2: 3-2 | Q3: 12-3 | Q4: 11-0
The two Big West dreams died in the final 10 minutes of Saturday night’s conference tournament title game when UC San Diego pulled away from UC Irvine to seize the 75-61 victory. The Tritons had a strong case for a large bid. The Alitant was one of the most stingy defensive teams in college basketball throughout the season, but there were no flashy metrics or non-conference wins on head touring to shake up the committee.
UC Irvine coach Russell Turner appears to have already noticed by the time he speaks with reporters after Saturday night’s defeat.
“There’s no denying the catastrophic feeling of not reaching the goal of playing in the insanity of March,” Turner said. “We knew we would arrive at the summit if we won. We’d feel like we’d failed to win tonight.”
5. Ohio (17-15)
Kenpom: 39 | Net: 41 | Q1: 6-11 | Q2: 3-4 | Q3: 2-0 | Q4: 6-0
Looking back, it’s surprising how the path to NCAA bidding has made it clear that Ohio is entering the Big Ten tournament. Even at 17-14, even after slipping up after slipping during Big Ten play, the lacking Buckeyes were at a distance claiming one of the final large bids.
Step one would have been the Iowa team’s days victory after the coach’s firing, but Ohio State couldn’t even manage it. The Buckeyes fell 77-70 in a game that did not guarantee a spot on the field with a victory, but the losses eliminated them from the competition.
The forecast metrics rank Ohio as the top 40ish NCAA Tournament Caliber Team. The Buckeyes boast six quadrant wins, including Markey’s victory in Kentucky, Maryland and Purdue. However, no team has landed a massive bid in just two games over .500. The committee did not justify that this Ohio team didn’t think it was the first.
