Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte was soon able to become the first Asian former head of state to be tried in The Hague.
The populist politician was arrested on March 11, 2025 after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant related to his “Drug War.”
About 6,000 people were killed during the crackdown. But despite the controversy over his policy in 2022 and the end of his presidency, Duterte remains an influential figure.
Our conversation relied on Lisandro Claudio, a Philippine Politics and History expert at the University of California, Berkeley, to explain how arrests affect domestic politics and whether this would mark the end of Duterte’s shaking.
What do you know about arrests and charges?
The arrest warrant issued by the ICC states that it is charged with crimes against humanity in connection with events that occurred between November 1, 2011 and March 16, 2019. This is important not only when Duterte was president, but also when he was mayor of Davao, the richest city on the island of Mindanao.
Duterte served as president from 2016 to 2022, but he pulled the country out of Roman law, the treaty that established the ICC in 2019. Nevertheless, the ICC says it is within their jurisdiction as it was committed before the Philippines terminated its relationship with the ICC, and therefore suspected crimes were committed.
Duterte is said to have overseen the systematic use of murder, torture and rape against civilians.
He is accused of acting as the de facto leader of the Davao Death Squad, a group responsible for the summary executions and murder or loss of more than 1,000 people in and around the city. Importantly, however, the prosecution is also the nationalisation of Duterte’s death strategy. Upon power, he incorporated the “war on drugs” into national police policies.
AP Photo/Aaron Fabira
Based on the method the ICC warrant was written and reported in the Philippines, it appears that former members of Davao’s death force and police officers are testifying about the prosecution.
What role did the government play in the arrest?
Duterte’s arrest and direction appears to have happened with cooperation with the Netherlands in search of better words.
President Ferdinand “Bonbon” Marcos Jr., who took over Duterte, held a press conference after his arrest, explaining that despite not being part of the Treaty of Rome, the Philippines is committed to supporting the international criminal police organization, or Interpol. And it was Interpol who asked Manila to implement a warrant after receiving it from the ICC.
The indication from Marcos was that the Philippine government had no choice but to adhere to Interpol for two reasons. First, adherence to international norms is the expected action of a democratic state, and second, Interpol has helped the Philippines to arrest fugitives in the past – including allegations of the former mayor and China’s Spy Alice Guo.
In short, Marcos says it is in national interest to comply with the ICC arrest warrant.
Is it also in President Marcos’ political interests?
The Philippines cannot instruct the ICC when to issue a warrant or to whom to issue it.
And it appears that the timing was not decided by Marcos, as ICC prosecutor Karim Khan appears to have requested a warrant on February 10th.
But that doesn’t mean that it’s not a lucky time.
A significant midterm election took place in May, and Marcos is keen to use it to integrate the powers in a continuing feud with Vice President Sara Duterte, the daughter of the now arrested former president.
In 2022, Sarah Duterte and Marcos ran on the same ticket for their vice president and president. But the union between these two family dynasties – Bonbon Marcos, son of former Philippine dictator Ferdinand Marcos and Imelda, still the powerful Matriach of the family, broke pretty quickly.
The fight between Sarah Duterte and Martin Romaldez, the House Speaker and President Marcos’ cousin, was strained in relation to the matter.
But beyond the question of personality, there is a difference in policy between Dutertes and Marcos. In particular, under Marcos Jr., the Philippines has returned to the US by bringing the US military back into the country and taking a more positive attitude towards China in the South China Sea.
This approach has been challenged by the Duterte family, near China. In the first year of Marcos’ administration, Rodrigo Duterte served as a kind of envoy of Beijing, which became increasingly clear that this was an independent relationship between the former president and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
So, maybe this is the end of Duterte’s influence?
That’s certainly something President Marcos might be cited by banks.
The father’s ICC prosecution pairs with his daughter’s upcoming ammo each to castrate the power of the Duterte clan.
The reason this is so important to Marcos is that Sarah Duterte has made it clear that she wants to be the next president, and given the unfortunate between the two, there is a broad assumption that she will come to power and chase after the various members of the Marcos family.
As Duterte is busy defending his case in the Hague, he is unable to focus his efforts on helping the senator’s choices be elected in the mid-term. It will also likely end his bid to return to Mayor Davao. This is a position to give him a powerful bully pulpit.
Rodrigo Duterte’s charisma should not be underestimated. He looks like Donald Trump like that. Many critics do not fully understand the power of his charisma, his humor, and the warmth he shows to his supporters, but it drove him to a high level of popularity while he was in power.
And he doesn’t see that charisma in his three children, including the current Vice President Sarah Duterte. Part of this is due to sexism. There is a lot of sexism in Philippine politics. So people are more likely to support rude men like Rodrigo Duterte compared to their daughters. And Sarah Duterte has her own problems – especially the perpetrators associated with alleged corruption while she was an education secretary.
Could this lead to more biased politics?
Your guess is as good as mine here. In the short term, the arrest of Rodrigo Duterte is clearly a very good thing for President Marcos. And the small scale of pro-dutere protests suggests that they do not suggest a major uprising against arrests.
But what happens next and how it is reported is important. Filipinos love political martians. I saw this when former President Joseph Estrada was arrested and in 2001 he indicted the stealing of public money. The same could happen with Duterte. You can go in both ways.
