London – The Ukrainian forces are struggling to prevent a significant military setback as they retain the territory of Russia that they seized last year.
According to Ukrainian and Russian military bloggers, Russian attacks, supported by North Korean forces in the past few days, have made serious progress in the northeastern Ukraine in the Kursk region of Russia, forcing them to break through Ukrainian status and withdraw to a new line of defense. Russia is trying to cut Ukraine’s important supply roads to Kursk. This is already burned. This means that thousands of Ukrainian troops in Russia are currently increasing the risk of siege.
Ukraine seized scaffolding in the Kursk region in a surprising attack in August, gaining hundreds of square miles of Russian territory. For months, Russia has been trying to drive Ukrainians away from regions, including the North Korean forces, but until recently, it has made slow progress while suffering serious injuries.
Russia’s progress increased dramatically last week, according to bloggers and the Ukrainian military. The Ukrainian army was clearly under severe pressure and was forced to return to the main town that controls Sudasuha, the region’s main town. The Washington, D.C.-based War Research Institute (ISW) on Sunday rated Russian troops “collapse” the northern part of Kursk’s Ukrainian line.
Ukrainian military personnel patrol the streets next to a building that was damaged during recent battles between the Ukrainian and Russian troops in the Ukrainian-controlled town of Suda, Russia’s Kursk region, on August 16, 2024.
Yan Dobronosov/Reuters, File
According to open source analysts, the Russian military is aiming to successfully attack across the border and reach Ukraine, facing Ukraine. Ukraine is reportedly blunting Russian pushes for now, but the Russian troops are close to either side of the route and are already under fire from cannons and drones.
Over the weekend, Russian troops entered the industrial zone and arrived on the outskirts of Sudzha itself, after launching an attack via gas pipelines. After Russian troops crossed the Pseuzu River, they retreated from many of the western flanks of Kursk, allowing Russia to recapture several villages there, according to Clement Morin, a military analyst based in Lyon, France and co-director of Atam Mundi’s think tank.
Ukrainian military personnel patrol an area controlled by the Ukrainian Army town of Sudaschha, Kursk region, Russia, on August 16, 2024.
Yan Dobronosov/Reuters, File
Ukrainian military commander Oleksandr Silsky denied that Ukrainian forces were at risk of siege on Monday, saying the situation was under control and seriously injured Russia.
Yurii Butusov, a well-known Ukrainian military journalist, said on Monday that the situation was “very difficult” but there is no threat to the current Ukrainian troops being under siege, and that reinforcements continue to arrive in Sudzha.
Russia has stepped up efforts to drive Ukraine out of Kursk as efforts to negotiate the war three years ago under the Trump administration intensified. The Kremlin has repeatedly signaled that it will not commence any meaningful negotiations with Ukraine as long as it occupys a part of Kursk.
ISW and other analysts have suggested that the Trump administration’s sudden cut to US intelligence news sharing earlier this month is likely to have an impact on Ukraine’s ability to defend in Kursk. ISW noted that the Russian attack appears to be intensifying at the same time that Russia’s attacks announced a cut-off to aid to Ukraine last week, suggesting that Russia is trying to capitalize on it.
Speaking to ABC News last week, Ukrainian officials said the intelligence agency aims to limit Ukrainian strikes to Russia, warning that it would hinder Ukrainian ability to strike large forces in Kursk.
“This will help the Russians concentrate their troops,” a source told ABC News on Thursday. “We know that North Korean soldiers are focused on it again, for example. We could have hit them first, but we can’t now.”
But the situation in Kursk had already gotten worse before Trump halted sharing his intelligence.
According to independent military analysts, Ukraine’s degraded position ultimately sees more aggressive development on the Russian military front, which appears to be at a dead end, as Russian military advances are at a dead end, and Ukraine has increased many counterattacks, so we see more aggressive developments in the end.
For six months, Russia has made progress towards the city of Pokrovsk, a key defensive hub, but there are signs that its advance is exhausting after suffering very high losses, according to Ukrainian military accounts and independent researchers.
Over the past two weeks, the Ukrainian forces were able to launch a successful counterattack in Russian positions around Pokrovsk, regaining some position. Ukraine was also able to fight back in another city, Toretsk. This was not captured by Russian troops despite nine months of intense urban combat.
