Washington
CNN
–
President Donald Trump has long overstated the size of the US trade deficit with various other countries. Now, as Trump cites these trade deficits as key justifications for his tariff policy, newly released federal statistics show just how wrong Trump numbers are.
Federal figures released previously in 2023 and some of 2024 already showed that Trump’s claims about the US deficit with Canada, Mexico, China and the European Union are quite apart. Currently, the Commerce Department has released the figures for the full year 2024, and we can say exactly how far this is.
The figures were released Thursday, and Trump announced until April 2nd that he announced his duties on Canadian and Mexican products covered under the US-Mexico-Canada agreement he signed in his first term, and his duties on his duties.
Before you get into the data, a quick reminder: having a trade deficit with other countries means that the US will import more goods and services from the country than it exports. Trump often describes the trade deficit as a subsidy or loss, but having a deficit doesn’t mean that the US is giving money for anything.
The US trade deficit with the US, for example, is primarily present as the US imports large quantities of inexpensive Canadian heavy crude oil that helps lower gas prices for American drivers.
Trump (10% Energy), which imposed a 25% tariff on almost all imports from Canada on Tuesday, has repeatedly said the US has a “$200 billion” trade deficit with Canada.
The number of cards isn’t even correct. New federal statistics show that the 2024 deficit with Canada in 2024 was $35.7 billion, up from $40.6 billion in 2023.
Even if we count only commodity trades and ignored the US’ superior trade in services, the 2024 deficit with Canada was $70.6 billion. In 2023 it was $72.3 billion.
Trump also imposed a 25% tariff on products imported from Mexico. He said in a February interview with Fox News that he “has a $350 billion deficit with Mexico.”
Again, that’s far from reality. New federal figures show that Mexico’s deficit with Mexico in 2023 was $179 billion, up from $162.1 billion in 2023.
The 2024 deficit with Mexico in 2024 was $181.5 billion, up from $161.4 billion in 2023.
Trump, who imposed a series of tariffs on first and second presidential terms on products imported from China, said in a February interview with Fox News Radio that he “has a deficit of over $1 trillion.” He repeated the “one trillion dollars” numbers in his February speech.
That’s also a massive exaggeration. New federal figures show that the deficit with China in property trade in 2024 was $263.3 billion. That’s up from $252.1 billion in 2023, but lower than Trump’s first presidency every year.
Trade deficits rise for many reasons other than presidential policy. I’ll mention the fact that the deficit during the Biden era was lower than the deficit during the Trump era. Because Trump claims that Biden has made the deficit “uncontrollably” with China.
Trade alone in 2023 saw a deficit with China of $295.2 billion, up from $278.7 billion in 2023.
Trump has regularly and falsely denounced the European Union for its trade practices. He told reporters in February that the European Union is a $350 billion deficit. He said at the event that followed in February it was a “approximately $300 billion deficit with the European Union.”
I’m wrong again. New federal figures show that the deficit with the European Union and the European Union in 2023 was $161.1 billion, up from $125.1 billion in 2023.
The deficit with the European Union in 2024 alone in trade with the European Union was $236.7 billion from $200.6 billion in 2023. So, counting only commodity trade, Trump’s claims about the deficit with the European Union is a little closer than his claims about the deficit with Canada, Mexico and China, but in fact it doesn’t get close to the truth.
This article has been updated with additional information.
