Will a partial month ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine be key to unleashing lasting peace on both sides?
That’s what French President Emmanuel Macron believes, and he came up with the idea at the top of London’s European leadership on Sunday.
In an interview with the Le Figaro newspaper, he proposed a four-week ceasefire “in the air, in the ocean and in energy infrastructure.” It does not cover ground battles along the eastern frontline.
“If a ceasefire occurs, it will be very difficult to see a (ceasefire) along the front,” Macron told the newspaper.
In another interview, French Foreign Minister Jean Noel Barott said:
This so far looks more like an idea than a fully practiced plan, and details are rare. However, the essence of the hypothesis appears to divide the process of ending the battle.
The first short-term ceasefire – something less permanent than a formal ceasefire – offers a moment that tests Russia’s willingness to negotiate peace. It could also bring President Trump an early political victory.
Territory transfer is not included. And it can create a political space that allows serious consultations to begin over lasting peace.
Under the French proposal, European “guaranteed forces” will deploy to Ukraine, thwarting future Russian attacks only after a permanent ceasefire is agreed.
Washington’s British ambassador Lord Mandelson appeared to be giving credit to the idea on Sunday when he said, “Ukraine should first commit to a ceasefire and avoid it to chase after the Russians.”
However, on Monday, British government officials and ministers stressed that they were cool about the idea of a ceasefire in France and that it was not yet an agreed proposal. Military Minister Luke Pollard told the BBC’s today’s programme:
A spokesman for the prime minister said, “Obviously there are many options at the table. I’m not caught up in the commentary being implemented on options.”
Italian vice-prime minister and foreign minister Antonio Tajani had said the idea was “premature.” According to Italian news agency ANSA.
“I believe everything must be done in Europe and the US together. We will sit at the table with Ukraine and Russia to reach justice, especially long-term peace,” Tajani said. “So it’s still too early to see what to do and how to do it.”
This idea is clearly difficult. How do we measure violations through anonymous drone attacks on Ukraine’s power plants? Why does Ukraine want to give the Russian army a free moon to reorganize and save lives?
But for that reason, western diplomats said the idea of a partial ceasefire was not entirely “bluski thinking” by President Macron.
They said it could be part of a European ceasefire plan they are working on before it was placed on Americans.
Clearly, some fresh thoughts may be required to unlock the current deadlock between the US and Ukraine and unlock the current deadlock with Europeans struggling to find ways to fix diplomatic violations.
Of course, it all depends on what Ukraine and Russia think. On Sunday night, Ukrainian President Voldimia Zelensky was asked if he was aware of France’s ceasefire plan and simply said, “I know everything.”
So far, there is no evidence that the Russians are willing to agree to a partial ceasefire. As Zelensky said, “Anyone who wants to negotiate will not intentionally attack people with ballistic missiles.”
