When the NBA’s latest collective bargaining agreement was placed, the restrictive nature of both the first and second aprons sent a clear signal to expensive teams who were willing to go beyond either. There are results.
As a result, teams need to navigate challenges such as 100% pay matching in transactions, player acquisitions through sign-and-trade, pay aggregation restrictions, and small laundry lists for additional items, so they don’t get enthusiastic about key pay.
These changes, in many ways, translate into one larger goal: contract efficiency.
Currently, teams carrying dead money or bad contracts are at a huge disadvantage from a competitive standpoint.
This should make Philadelphia 76ers fans writhe as the franchise now realizes that they have the worst pay cap situation for any team in the NBA.
With recent news that Star Center Joel Embiid has been closed for the season due to a left knee issue, the Six has faced some tough, long-term questions about how they should move forward.
In September, Sixers extended their Embiid contract by adding three years and $192 million to existing transactions, which are expected to expire in 2029, a year after Embiid made more than $69 million.
A few months ago, the Six handed out a maximum-level contract with former All-Star Paul George in July. The deal is $211.5 million and will run over four seasons, including this.
Philadelphia, through team president Daryl Molly, gave George a player’s choice in the final year worth $56.5 million, making him wonder if the Six is negotiating exactly what he’s offering.
George, 35 in May, has played some of the worst basketball of his career, showing signs of harsh decline.
This season alone, Embiid and George have combined for over $109.6 million in Philadelphia cap sheets.
They scored a total of 1,100 points as they approached the 60-game mark of the season. George played 40 games and Embiid 19.
Needless to say, it is concerning for many reasons. This particular season not only highlights a major disappointment, but also shows a potentially rough future with two aging stars struggling with health.
Embiid said he may never play a back-to-back game again for the rest of his career, but he will turn 31 on March 16th. The previous MVP may still be effective, but it’s fair to question whether he’ll be able to return to All-NBA form or even move forward half-season.
George looked like a shadow of his former self, but in theory he could have spent a year of bouncebacks between 2025 and 2026, especially if he set fire from downtown, but it appears he will remain dramatically overpaid for the rest of his contractual years.
What makes this whole situation even more complicated is the fact that the Sixers have a real Prime Star from Tyrese Maxey.
Having signed a five-year deal worth $238 million this past offseason, Maxey has been worth his compensation so far. The 24-year-old is a large caliber All-Star player with an age at his side, making sure the Sixers don’t have to worry about his long-term pay level.
Complications arise when you look ahead and ask uncomfortable questions: how can the Six properly build around Maxey when they deal with Embiid and George’s contract?
There’s no good answer, especially when you consider that Embiid and George are almost impossible to trade, at least in return, hoping to get something in return.
Philadelphia may be lucky if the ambitious team is willing to fork Embiid’s expired contract in the hopes that they can narrow down a year or two of MVP caliber production from him.
That seems unlikely, but all you need is one team to think like that, and the Sixers have an out.
Perhaps the team, like George, will seek compensation to take on Embiid’s contract.
The team knows that if Embiid is restricted and George is experiencing a dramatic decline, the Six will not go anywhere. If they take on one of those deals, it would be within their rights to narrow the six for everything they can.
Of course, there is one scenario that can help bail out the Sixers, and that’s the draft. But there’s a lot of good fortune to get there.
As it stands, the Oklahoma City Thunder owns Philadelphia’s first round pick. This is top 6 protected.
For the Sixers to keep that pick, they obviously have to be selected within the top six. That means lottery luck as they aren’t bad enough to lock the picks themselves. They essentially need to enter the Washington Wizard and Charlotte Hornets area and have the chance to improve their odds for that choice, which seems optimistic.
But if an organization even gets the chance to maintain the pick through lottery luck and perhaps even draft a Duke forward Cooper flag, it will reset their entire clock.
Flag represents a new start, with the Sixers simply waiting for George’s contract.
Of course, these are long odds and are not simply viable plans given the possibility that six people will have to fork their choice to Oklahoma City.
For good reason, the tacit path takes more dramatic and offensive measures.
If Sixers are exploring a market of trading focused on Embiid and George, but can’t find that no one is willing to trade any of them, they can test the market for Maxey and ask to receive bad money and therefore pay back more draft rewards.
Many teams are interested in Maxey. If six people can measure draft pick acquisitions in the late 2020s when George and Embiid’s deals have expired, they can arm themselves with draft picks and gain cap space to optimize flexibility with younger players selected along the way.
Yes, that plan is five years away. No, there’s nothing fun in the middle. It’s an unnaturally long wait for NBA teams to start a new era.
But if Embiid continues to break down and George continues to decline, what alternative is it? Even if the Sixers are able to trade both stars as contracts go shorter, are teams ready to waive an expired contract for players who essentially don’t use them as they enter their mid- to late 30s and enter a substantial injury pattern?
If this is all read as very dark, then that’s because. Looking at both Embiid and George’s turnaround, it has to do almost a miracle until they reach compensation levels.
In today’s NBA, there is no chance of being a candidate when a team is not getting the right value from the biggest contract.
That’s the challenge Philadelphia is facing, and the prospects for change are very small.
