PLV metrics can help you identify hitting sleepers to get picked up in a fantasy draft (or waiver immediately after the draft).
PL Pro has long provided a PLV tool that identifies and measures the relationship between a particular batter skill and other MLB batters. This includes decision-making values, communication ability, strike zone judgments, and rolling charts of batter performance (to name a few). Additionally, as shown in Nate Schwartz’s FSWA nominated article, Process+ incorporated all these skills, effectively summarizing hitter toolsets, combining metric and rolling charts that can summarise what successes (or regressions) over time selected by a particular batter.
In this post, we’ll look at five different PLV skills from five batters whose PLV metrics are optimistic in the fantasy for the upcoming 2025 season (including all of the skills above). They also share each process + rolling chart and give fantasy baseball managers ideas about how that particular batter’s decision-making, communication ability and power will look pre-season. By analyzing all these forms of PLV data, fantasy managers will understand why these five batters will be roster targets in 2025.
All ADP data comes from NFC.
After being overwhelmed between 2020 and 2023 (cumulative zero FWAR in 301 games), Smith broke out in 2024 with a small sample size.
With 60 games and 158 plate appearances for the Diamondbacks, the previous one-round pick hit .270 with nine home runs and 36 RBI. He also posted 142 WRC+. This was when he first posted over 100 WRC+ in his career. When Christian Walker becomes the Houston Astro, Smith has the usual at-bat opportunity, even if Josh Naylor arrives from Cleveland this offseason.
Regarding his PLV category, Smith was rated above average in all five, with his ratings for his strength (124) and batter performance (132) as his best. As for Process+, he didn’t have a huge sample. That said, all three of his skills were above average for most of his season in Arizona.
Regardless of the dip in the second half, there’s a lot I like about Smith. He has a patient approach (career 0.50 bb/k ratio), and last season he finally took that long-standing power. His 14.7% barrel percentage and 44% hard hit rate were career-highs, correlated with what PLV introduced in the power division last year.
Naylor’s arrival, Randall Grichuk’s return, and Smith’s lack of minor league options have led to Smith having an ADP of 464.6 and a low fantasy draft. However, he is skilled for his offensive breakout in 2025, so he can fall asleep in the later rounds.
Aranda has long been paying attention in her long-standing fantasy. However, as would be expected with Rays players, he hasn’t gotten a batting spot in most formats to justify roster spots (especially those of 10 and 12 teams).
The 26-year-old has shown some progress in 2024 as he hit six home runs, 22 runs in 44 games and 143 plate appearances for the Rays. The average was not worth it (.234), but he posted a .308 OBP, but his .362 XWOBA was 42 points higher than his actual WOBA. That shows that Aranda could be struggling with the luck of the ball that was hit hard last season.
PLV drew a rosy picture of Aranda’s hit skill in 2024.
He was rated above average in four categories (decision value, contact, power, and batter performance), slightly below average strike zone judgement. Power was his best category, as evident from his 128 mark. His 16.5% barrel percentage and a 46.4% hard hit rate indicate that Aranda has the potential for HR of 20+ if he gets the plate look in 2025.
Process+ confirmed his power as legal for most of his short-season sample last year, but his decision-making value and communication ability were hovering on average. Interestingly, his decision value was more important at the beginning of the year, and his contacts finally improved.
As the rays move into the spring training yards in 2025 due to the Hurricane Destruction at Tropicana Field (planning to play at the Yankees spring training facility in Tampa), Aranda will move from one of the baseball pitching-friendly parks to one of the more hitter-friendly. So, based on these new home park factors and solid skills based on PLV, Aranda has a great campaign in 2025, potentially becoming a bargain in the 370 ADP range.
Correa is a challenging dilemma of fantasy for his health. The former Astro played only in 86 games last season and accumulated only 367 plate appearances due to various injuries. That said, when he played, the 30-year-old was one of the most productive shortstops in baseball.
Last season he hit .310 with 14 home runs, 55 R and 54 RBI. He also narrowed down 9.1% of the time to the ball and had a hard hit rate of 44.5%. If he can play for a year in 2025, he could be one of the better bargains in the Fantasy Draft.
Also, PLV data from last season suggests that Correa may not be exhausted in his skills.
He was above average in four categories: strike zone judgement, contact, power, batsman performance, and just three points below the average decision value. He posted over 120 marks in contact and batter performances. This shows that Correa was still a perfect hitter, just like he was in his final season in Minnesota last year with Houston. The only difference is that he didn’t play enough games due to injury.
Correa’s Process+ demonstrated elite contact and power skills before being injured. When he returned, the skills remained mostly the same, but there was a slight regression (though it should be expected considering his long layoffs, not 100%).
Short stops can be done early in the draft, especially in the AL-only format. That said, for those with a patient, Correa could be a great comfort award later in the draft, even if the fantasy manager is at risk of serious injuries.
The Cardinals appear to be committed to moving Wilson Contreras out of their catching position this year.
According to roster resources, he is predicted to be the first baseman on the first day. St. Louis is moving Contreras for Herrera’s better defensive skills and the 24-year-old budding bat.
With 72 games and 259 plate appearances, Herrera hit .301 with five home runs, 37 R, 27 RBI and 5 SBs. This is an excellent production from the catcher in the traditional 5×5 scoring format. Furthermore, Herrera’s barrel rate of 8.9% and hard hit rate of 41.9% demonstrated that his offensive production was sustainable.
PLV looked like a huge fan of Herrera’s skill set in 2024.
He has above average in three categories (contact, power, hit performance) and has a power rating as his best trait via the 120 mark. The 2024 campaign was not perfect as his decision-making score rated three below average points and his strike zone judgment rated eight below average points. But at age 24, he is likely to make a strike zone judgment with more plate appearances, and his contact ability and power can now make up for that “slight” flaw.
Process+ showed that his decisions improved after a bit of layoffs.
Overall decisions were just below average, but Herrera showed even more discipline at the end of last season, especially around the end of September. It’s an encouraging sign that Panama’s catchers are mature as batsmen.
If Herrera shifted that discipline and decision-making in 2025, he could be one of the better catchers of fantasy and a valuable long-term option in the form of keeper and dynasty.
Westberg is the most famous fantasy hitter in this group, so that’s why I saved him for the last time. In 107 games and 447 plate appearances in his sophomore season at Baltimore, the 26-year-old infielder hit .264 with 18 hours, 57 R, 63 RBI and 6 SB. He also flaunted a barrel rate of 11.8% and a hard hit rate of 46.1%.
His PLV skills were highly evaluated last year. He posted above average marks on strike zone judgement, decision value, power and batter performance, with the latter two ratings listed as the best category of the 118 marks. His contact was barely below average at 99. It’s not a problem to think that in 2025 you can go back to average in that category.
As for Process+, there’s not much to complain about Westburg and what he did in 2024 in terms of decision-making, communication ability, and power. He suffered from broken hands at the end of July and left him for most of August and September (he was back at the end of the year).
Westburg’s injury in 2025 is key. His contacts were fine last year until last year when it failed in July when it could be fatigued or health-related. He also deals with the pain this spring and may limit playing time from the gate in April. If Westberg misses time, Jackson Holiday and Coby Mayo are two guys who can benefit.
Nevertheless, if he is 100%, Westberg is the top 100 player in fantasy and could be a great option for fantasy managers due to this keystone and hot corner eligibility.
