The woman waving a flag bears a photograph of the founder of Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) Abdullah Okaran as people gather in Kamishri city in Kariti city in northeastern Syri to hear messages from leaders who were imprisoned on February 27th. Delil Souleiman/AFP via Getty Images hides captions
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Delil Souleiman/AFP via Getty Images
It could represent an important political breakthrough for Turkish President Recept Tayp Erdogan, and extremists from Kurdish ethnic groups who have fought rebellions with Turkish authorities for more than 40 years have declared a ceasefire.
The announcement comes just two days after Abdullah Okaran, the leader of the extremist PKK group that Turkey has been in prison since 1999.
The PKK, known as the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, launched a war with the Turkish state in the early 1980s due to the perceived abuse of Turkish Kurdish minority. The conflict has caused thousands of deaths over 40 years.
The group has been carrying out only small attacks within Turkey in recent years, and has seen Turkish forces use armed drones to drive many executives across the mountain border into adjacent Iraq.
The move follows 18 months of earthquake changes in the region on October 7, 2023, after Hamas attacked Israel and attacked the response in Gaza. The conflict between Lebanon’s Israel and Hezbollah and the fall of longtime Syrian president Bashar al-Assad by rebels currently building a new government in Damascus.
The latest peace efforts, including the Ankara and the PKK, which have been designated as terrorist organizations by the Turkish government and many European allies, have been driven by President Erdogan’s political partners in recent months.
Erdogan may need Kurdish support to run again
Some analysts have stated a public proposal by Erdogan’s political allies that the 75-year-old PKK leader, Okaran, could be released in exchange for abandonment of violence, could form part of an effort to seduce Kurdish voters. Kurdish support may be necessary to change the constitutional period limits that prohibit Erdogan from running for reelection in 2028.
However, Türkiye’s biggest legal pro-Kurdish party has faced a rise in pressure over the past few months, with the mayor being replaced by an Erdogan-friendly appointee.
The ceasefire announcement marks the first concrete step towards peace as the PKK and the Turkish government abandoned the final set of disarmament negotiations a decade ago, but some analysts remain skeptical about its long-term durability.
“You’ll be shocked when something comes up, but it could take years to see the road,” says Bill Park, a visiting researcher at King’s College London.
According to Park, Syrian PKK allies may not agree to the decision, which could complicate the announcement. “I am very skeptical. I have not seen democratization, change in mind in Turkey. The Kurdish local government has been shut down. I am a prison activist, a prison journalist,” he says.
And although he says there is a division within the PKK, many members may feel that they have to go along with what Ocaran says due to his cult status as the group’s longtime incarcerated leader.
But Erdogan said over the past week that Okaran has called for PKK fighters to lower their arms, representing a “new stage” of Turkish people’s attempts to peace.
“We have the opportunity to take a historic step to tear down the wall of fear that stood between the 1,000-year-old brotherly love (Turkish and Kurdish),” Erdogan said Friday.
Dramatic changes in Syria also play a role
However, Caroline Rose, a senior fellow at the Newsline Institute, said changes in the political and security environment in neighboring Syria could also be key to the group’s decision, according to Caroline Rose, a foreign policy-centric think tank headquartered in Washington, D.C.
“Events over the past three months, especially the security reforms between the SDF and the new Syrian army,” Rose says, “is one of the main reasons we saw the PKK abandon its weapons and announce a ceasefire with Turkey,” says Rose.
The Kurdish-led Syrian democrats, although historically sympathized with the PKK and have denied strong links, could soon be integrated into Syrian new forces.
Meanwhile, new Syrian leaders are considering the role of Turkish military forces in their efforts to eradicate ISIS within their borders, Rose said. However, given the distrust of Erdogan felt by many in northeastern Syria, she admitted the move as “of course it would make many Kurds uncomfortable.”
Kurds have historically lived in modern turkeys, Iraq, Syria and parts of Iran.
