There are four teams left aiming to qualify for New Orleans for Super Bowl LIX. On Saturday, the two-time defending champion Kansas City Chiefs defeated the Houston Texans in the regional round to advance to the AFC Championship Game for the seventh consecutive year. The Chiefs will welcome a familiar foe to GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in the Buffalo Bills, who defeated the Baltimore Ravens at home on Sunday. The line for the AFC Championship Game began Sunday night at -1 p.m. and continued toward Kansas City.
In the NFC, the Washington Commanders upset the top-seeded Detroit Lions on Saturday with a great performance from rookie QB Jayden Daniels. The coaches will travel to take on NFC East rival Philadelphia Eagles, who advanced to the championship game with a win over the Los Angeles Rams. The Eagles opened as 6-point favorites against the Commanders, but have since dropped 0.5 points to -5.5.
Here’s a look at where our team thinks we can find value on the early lines before the value starts to move as the week progresses.
All odds are accurate as of the time stamp. Visit ESPN BET for the latest odds.
Joe Fortenbaugh’s first bet: Chiefs -1.5 over Bills.
Last week: Ravens (+1) vs. Bills. The line ended with Bills +1.5. The Bills won 27-25.
Buffalo deserves credit for capitalizing on Baltimore’s countless mistakes, but can they really count on another +3 turnover differential to make it through the AFC Championship game? The Bills were outgained by 143 total yards against the scrappy Ravens, who finished the game with 25 points, 416 total yards, and a 70% third down conversion rate. There was definitely a chance for Baltimore to score 30 or more points on the road. And let’s not forget that the referees here tend to side with Mahomes. Don’t you agree? Since Kansas City committed 11 penalties for 120 yards against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV (2021), the Chiefs have 222 fewer yards than their opponents in their next 11 playoff appearances. The number of penalties was reduced by 30. I’ll put it here.
Tyler Fulghum’s first bet: Commander +5.5
Last week: 6-point teaser: Chiefs -1.5 | Commanders +14.5. The Chiefs won 23-14. The managers won 45-31.
I feel like this line overestimates the Eagles by a point or two. The coaches have already defeated the Eagles once this season. Jaden Daniels is playing better football than Jalen Hurts. In the divisional round, the Eagles recorded over 200 more rushing yards and were +2 in turnover margin against the Rams, but still failed to cover. They almost lost the game in regulation. I picked Philadelphia to win the NFC and I’m going to support them, but I think this line should have a little more respect for the managers.
Seth Walder’s first bet: Bills ML +105
Last week: Commanders vs. Lions totaled over 55.5 points. The managers won 45-31.
The Bills are just the better team.
Excluding Week 18 (when both teams were rested), the Bills have a huge EPA advantage of 0.26 to 0.15 per dropback. In other words, every 10 Bills pass plays are worth one point more than every 10 Chiefs pass plays. And what about ground combat? It’s exactly the same story. Buffalo is at 0.07 and the Chiefs are at -0.03.
Yes, Buffalo’s pass defense has gotten noticeably worse lately, but these two teams have been about the same all year. And it’s not as important as the offense, which is more consistent from week to week than the defense. To root for the Chiefs you have to believe in some kind of divine Mahomes postseason boost, but I’m not rooting for a Bills team that has demonstrated its dominance all year.
Pamela Maldonado’s first bet: Chiefs ML (-120) vs. Bills
Last week: Commanders (+8.5) vs. Lions. The line ended at Commanders +8.5. The managers won 45-31.
The Chiefs have learned how to thrive under pressure, driven by a knack for winning tough games. Patrick Mahomes’ game-changing flair, combined with Andy Reid’s tactical genius, has consistently led Kansas City to victory, even when they’re behind or appear to be behind. Their battle-tested playoff experience and championship DNA gives them a mental edge over the Bills, who have yet to exorcise their postseason demons against Kansas City. The Chiefs should punch their ticket to the next Super Bowl.
ESPN betting details:
