WASHINGTON — As Donald Trump takes the oath of office for the second time on Monday, the world watches with a mixture of fascination, curiosity, elation, or fear — and what people outside the United States will do this time. I also feel that I have a better understanding of the world. I have high hopes for his presidency.
Even before Inauguration Day, the two-and-a-half month transition since Trump defeated his Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, had already brought about surprising developments in global affairs.
Some of America’s closest traditional allies were shocked by the president-elect’s rhetoric, delivered through the explosion of modern social media, that evoked the spirit of 19th century expansionism. Populist figures, already immersed in a wave of anti-establishment election sentiment, found themselves well received into President Trump’s orbit.
And authoritarian governments expect a far more transactional relationship with Washington, freed from the burden of diplomatic discussions about human rights and the rule of law.
Trump may be the most capricious American president in decades, but there is an element of predictability embedded within him that could well render nearly all long-standing international norms obsolete. . Some veteran observers suggest that the post-World War II era, in which the fragility of the rules-based order has been keenly felt, is a road map in itself.
Daniel Fried, who spent nearly 40 years in the U.S. Foreign Service, said many foreign leaders “no longer scramble to figure out what to do.”
“They know they have to plan for every contingency,” said Fried, who now works for the Atlantic Council think tank. “They feel better this time, but they’re still rattled.”
President Trump’s strong footing just before taking office almost certainly led to a ceasefire and hostage release agreement in the devastating war in the Gaza Strip. The agreement, drafted by the Biden administration, went into effect the day before President Trump was sworn in.
President Trump has walked back his boast that he would end the fighting in Ukraine within 24 hours, but everyone involved believes his inauguration will change the trajectory of Russia’s nearly three-year-long full-scale invasion of Ukraine. I have a feeling that this may be the case. Sovereign neighbors.
Then there’s China. The chaos caused by the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling that the hugely popular short video app TikTok must sever ties with its Chinese parent company or face a ban from the U.S. It is likely to surface insights into future deals between the US and China regarding military acceleration. rivalry.
“China could be a big surprise” under the Trump administration, said Michael Cox, professor emeritus of international relations at the London School of Economics. He said one factor to keep an eye on is the “huge” business interests in China of Elon Musk, one of the world’s richest men, a prominent but relatively new figure in President Trump’s orbit.
Mr. Musk, the SpaceX and Tesla billionaire, has also railed against elected leaders and greatly expanded his support for far-right groups at home, including in Germany and the United Kingdom. He appears to be as disrespectful as President Trump because he is shocking his intimate partner.
With Germany’s general election just over a month away, Musk is using his social media platform X to promote the far-right Alternative for Germany party as the nation’s savior, while Trump is I have no objection. Prime Minister Olaf Scholz on Friday once again condemned Musk’s election campaign, calling it “completely unacceptable.”
In the UK, Mr Musk has advocated for the release of jailed notorious anti-Islam extremist Tommy Robinson, and Prime Minister Keir Starmer has threatened to be jailed in a bid to upend a decades-old ‘special relationship’. declared. All were greeted with silence from President Trump.
“All of this sends a very worrying message to Europe, to people who are friendly to the United States,” said Cox of Chatham House, a British think tank.
Underscoring the new government’s populist tone, expected inauguration attendees include Italy’s far-right Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Britain’s firebrand politician Nigel Farage. According to Hungarian media, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who has supported President Trump as a “man of peace,” was also invited but was unable to attend.
Just as Trump, Musk and their team did in Europe, they have already signaled their approach to Latin America and where they will find favor. Even before he was elected, Trump was courting Latin American leaders accused of human rights abuses and antipathy to democratic norms.
Argentina’s President Javier Millay, who has vowed to follow in Trump’s footsteps and bring a “chainsaw” (which he frequently brandished at rallies) into his country’s government and institutions, has been invited to the inauguration. So did El Salvador’s President Nayib Boucle, who billed himself as the world’s coolest dictator and engineered a second term despite constitutional prohibitions. Bukele has also adopted Bitcoin as the national currency and is making a profit in the virtual currency world, which Musk is said to have praised.
President Trump’s allies are seeking to weaken democratic-left governments in Latin America, including Guatemala and Colombia, and could reverse President Biden’s last-minute diplomatic concessions, including removing Cuba from the U.S. list of state sponsors of international terrorism. Highly sexual. Supporters believed it was unfair and hurt Cuba’s struggling economy.
Mexico and Panama will be particularly upset with Trump.
The presidents of both countries, Claudia Sheinbaum and José Raúl Mulino, each stand against what they see as a threat to their national sovereignty, while also addressing some of their demands, such as stopping illegal immigrants from leaving or passing through their countries. I’m looking for a way to appease him. .
President Trump has expressed interest in declaring Mexican drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations, a designation that could be used for military attacks inside Mexican territory. He also says he wants to regain control of the Panama Canal. The Panama Canal was once administered by the United States as a foreign colony, but it is an important waterway that was handed over to Panama in a treaty signed by then-President Carter in 1977. This is to preclude the use of military forces to seize the canal.
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), President Trump’s nominee for secretary of state, has generally supported an “America First” policy, although he stopped short of aligning himself with Trump’s most unconventional views. , stated that all policy decisions must face three questions. Will it make America safer? Will it make America stronger? Or will it make America richer? ”
In the Middle East, the dramatic events surrounding the breaking of a ceasefire between Israel and the militant group Hamas drew comparisons on “split screen” to President Ronald Reagan’s 1981 inauguration. At that time, American hostages held in Iran were released shortly after the new leader took office. oath of office. The presidency of Reagan’s predecessor, Jimmy Carter, who died on December 29, was overshadowed by the long effort to free them.
Even before the first three hostages were released on Sunday, President Trump was quick to tout his role in securing the deal. The agreement, announced on Wednesday and finally ratified by Israel’s cabinet early Saturday, is the first day the agreement was released on October 7, 2023. and the gradual handover of the remaining prisoners, including the dead.
Over the next 15 months, Israeli airstrikes on Gaza killed more than 46,000 Palestinians and left the strip in ruins, with about nine-tenths of its more than 2 million residents dead, according to Gaza health officials. I evacuated.
“This EPIC cease-fire agreement could only have been possible as a result of November’s historic victory, because it is the first step in our administration’s quest for peace and the security of all Americans and allies. Because we have shown the world that we are willing to negotiate a deal for the United States,” the president said. – the winner wrote in a social media post as the breakthrough was being officially established.
Mr. Biden also acknowledged the unprecedented cooperation between Mr. Trump’s team and his country’s diplomats in the final effort to reach a deal, but last week the president-elect received a full review from reporters. When asked if it was the right thing to do, I couldn’t help myself.
“Is that a joke?” he asked.
Many people in Greenland thought Mr. Trump was joking when he talked about acquiring the vast island territory, part of Denmark, during his first presidency. But he resurfaced the idea, refusing to rule out using military force to seize power “for national security purposes.”
Europe quickly pointed out that President Trump would attack Europe’s borders and NATO allies.
“We have been working together (with the United States) for the past 80 years, and there is a lot we can do together,” Greenland Prime Minister Mute Egede said. Becoming an American. ”
“It’s not good for the United States for other countries to hedge their bets,” Fried warned at the Atlantic Council. You never know when the United States will need an ally, he said.
“Personally, I don’t think he’s a big deal,” Belgian-based analyst Guntram Wolff said when observers parsed the difference in how Trump’s more provocative statements are interpreted by his supporters and opponents. I want to take it literally and seriously.”
But he acknowledged that the world will have to wait and see what the next four years of Trump’s presidency bring.
“He has a plan. He’s arguing the merits,” said Wolff, a senior fellow at the Bruegel think tank in Brussels. “And he was chosen.”
