In the final game of the NFL Divisional Round, Ravens vs. Bills, I found great value in long shot prop bets.
I’m fading the Ravens defense on Sunday night’s particular prop market. Baltimore had four sacks in their win over the Steelers in the wild-card round, but it remains to be seen if that effort can be repeated against Josh Allen.
Let’s get started.
Ravens vs. Bills Props
The Ravens blitzed with the eighth-lowest pressure rate and seventh-lowest pressure rate.
Bills QB Josh Allen faces the 12th-lowest pressure rate, but importantly for this bet, he’s extremely difficult to sack. Allen’s 8.5% pressure-to-sack rate is the lowest in the league.
Allen hasn’t been sacked in seven of the 17 games he’s played a full season this season (40% chance).
I expect the Ravens to only have 1.3 sacks in this game, but Allen will be unsacked nearly 27% of the time, which is a fair price near +270.
I think there’s a lot of value in the Ravens not recording a sack at +700.
