Kevin Pelton, ESPN Senior Writer
Many of the WNBA’s biggest stars will compete over the next two months in the inaugural season of Unrivaled 3-on-3 basketball. But before former MVP Brianna Stewart, fellow 2024 All-WNBA First Team selections Nafeesa Collier and Alyssa Thomas, and Brittney Griner and Sabrina Ionescu, who will help announce the new league on Friday, , let’s analyze the rosters of the six teams. He will fight hard to bring home his first championship on March 17th.
One notable change from the WNBA is that we’ve never seen a game played using unrivaled rules, such as an 18-second shot clock and target score, so we’re not sure how things will play out. It is impossible to say exactly what will happen. Still, you can take a look at the talent on each roster using my predictions for how these players will perform in the WNBA during the upcoming 2025 season.
I use these predictions, based on performance over the past three WNBA seasons, to rank all six teams by offensive and defensive ratings, as well as how often teams will win based on those ratings. We’ve ranked what you can expect. Let’s start with one team that ranks higher than the others.
1. Moon Owl BC
Expected win rate .604
Roster: Shakira Austin, Nafeesa Collier, Skylar Diggins-Smith, Alisha Gray, Courtney Williams, Cameron Brink (IR)
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Collier, who co-founded the league with Stewart, is on the roster at defensive end. The Lunar Owls are below average offensively, but their estimated defensive rating is more than 4 points per 100 possessions better than any other team.
Obviously, it starts with Collier, the 2024 WNBA Defensive Player of the Year. Thanks to high block rates, steals, and defensive rebounds, Austin has the second-best defensive projection among players in the unrivaled pool, behind Collier. Additionally, all three Lunar Owls guards are rated as above-average defenders for their positions, although none were named to the All-Defensive team.
One question I can’t answer in my predictions is how playing with just five players all season will help the Lunar Owls, who will be without 2024 No. 2 draft pick Brink due to a torn ACL in June. The question is whether it will have a significant impact. A further minor injury would leave the moon owl dangerously thin. Still, according to this method, they are clearly favorites.
2. Phantom BC
Expected winning percentage .540
Roster: Natasha Cloud, Brittney Greiner, Sabrina Ionescu, Marina Mabry, Sato Sabally, Katie Lou Samuelson
In contrast, the second-place teams are all aggressive. The Phantoms’ defense is the second worst among all teams, but their offensive power is ranked among the top by a wide margin. It starts with Ionescu, a top point guard who plays in Unrivaled. Ionescu has great chemistry with Sabally, who was a teammate for three years at the University of Oregon. The two All-WNBA picks last played together in 2018-19 and 2019-20, when the Ducks led the nation in HerHoopStats offensive rating.
The Phantoms boast Greiner, who shot a career-high 58 percent from the field in 2024, as an inside counterweight. Greiner, who posted the most post-ups in the 3-on-3 format, where double teams are nearly impossible, could be hard to stop tracking the second-by-second spectrum in the WNBA last season.
Additional firepower comes off the bench in the form of Marbury, who ranked in the WNBA’s top 10 in makes while shooting 38 percent from 3-point range last season. At least Marbury will be sidelined, at least for a while, once he recovers from his calf injury. first two weeks. And Cloud, a three-time All-Defensive selection, gives the Phantoms a stronger defensive option on the perimeter.
3. Vinyl BC
Expected win rate .520
Roster: Aliyah Boston, Ray Burrell, Jordan Canada, Dearika Hamby, Ryne Howard, Arike Ogunbowale.
In terms of pure scoring ability, Boston has three of the top 16 scorers in the WNBA in 2024: Hamby (17.3 PPG), Howard (17.3 ppg), and Ogunbowale (22.2 ppg), and is the fourth talented player in Boston. It’s hard to beat Vinyl, who boasts a high scorer (14.0). The only other team that can match that number is the Phantoms.
Vinyl coach Teresa Weatherspoon’s job will be to make sure Vinyl’s scorers are integrated, rather than taking turns in charge of the offense. Canada, who averaged 5.8 APG during an injury-plagued 2024 season, will be key to that challenge. But Canada, a career 24 percent 3-point shooter, will have to shoot similar to the 33 percent she shot in 2023 to command respect from opponents off the ball. .
If Weatherspoon can manage that, Vinyl’s roster has a good balance of interior and perimeter power.
4. Mist BC
Expected win rate .488
Roster: Dijonai Carrington, Aaliyah Edwards, Rikea Jackson, Jewell Lloyd, Brianna Stewart, Courtney Vandersloot
Despite having the best individual prospect of any player, Stewart doesn’t boast a roster with as many great prospects as his co-founders. In part, the Mists will have to shoot much better than they did last season. Last season, players in the WNBA shot a combined 28.5%. No other Unrivaled team scored below 32% across the group. Only Jackson (35%) beat this mark in the 2024 Mist.
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On the plus side, the Mist’s players are more accurate than ever, shooting 34% from three in their career, better than the other two teams. Whether this regression begins will be crucial for a team that boasts strong chemistry. Stewart spent the past two seasons with Vandersloot with the New York Liberty and spent the rest of his WNBA career with Lloyd with the Seattle Storm, winning championships in both seasons.
The Mists have a strong defensive outlook and will be able to shut down opponents with team perimeter stoppers Carrington and Lloyd and six-time All-Defensive selection Stewart. Given the odds, I’d bet that Myst will outperform this prediction.
5. Shoelace BC
Expected winning percentage .430
Roster: Stephanie Dolson, Tiffany Hayes, Kate Martin, Kayla McBride, Alyssa Thomas, Jackie Young
There’s a lot to like about the makeup of the Raices’ roster. This gives Thomas, who finished second in the 2023 MVP voting, one of the best non-shooters in the WNBA, an enviable shooting percentage of 39% from three last season and 37% for his career. It means that it is equipped with.
Thomas’ ability as a point center allows the Rays to pair her with McBride and Young in the starting lineup, allowing for plenty of shot creation and playmaking. Hayes, last season’s No. 6 Player of the Year, and Dolson are solid reserves.
From a statistical point of view, the lack of rim protection in the laces is a major drawback. Together, they blocked only 63 shots last season, less than half of the 140 shots the Lunar Owls’ five healthy players took. It remains to be seen how important protecting the rim will be in a 3-on-3 setting compared to Thomas’ ability to switch on defense.
6. Rose BC
Expected winning percentage .418
Roster: Carlea Copper, Chelsea Gray, Lexi Hull, Angel Reese, Azura Stevens, Brittney Sykes.
Rose’s roster will be an interesting test case for the value of efficiency in the 3-on-3 game. Copper’s ability to create his own shot, Gray’s playmaking, and Reese’s offensive rebounding are all top-notch, but none of them scored at above-average efficiency during the 2024 WNBA campaign. (Grey was very efficient in 2022 and 2023.)
Thanks in part to Hull’s hot post-Olympic shooting, last season’s race was solid from beyond the arc. In that, the players shot just 45% combined. No other unrivaled team had a combined score below 48%. However, as the shot clock gets shorter, the copper and gray’s midrange shotmaking can become relatively valuable. And it will be interesting to see how Reese’s record-setting offensive rebounds translate to Unrivaled.
