Who likes being the underdog more than Bill’s Mafia? More than you can imagine with the NFL MVP and fandom, including remembering when a beat reporter in Baltimore called Buffalo a “city of losers” (even worse for Bills fans) and a fake quote from a Matt Milano message board. A week in which harmful words were exchanged. Play a round – The actual game is seen as a virtual coin toss.
What are the odds?
When the FanDuel Sportsbook series was first released, the Buffalo Bills opened as -1.5 point favorites, but now the Baltimore Ravens are listed as -1.5 point favorites. At the time of publication, 52% of wagers and 60% of incoming bets were on the Ravens, according to Pro Football Focus’ (PFF) betting model.
This will be the first time in the Super Bowl era that the Bills will be listed as the home underdog in a playoff game. The only time Buffalo was a family dog was in the AFL in 1967 against Hank Stram’s Kansas City Chiefs, a game that Buffalo (then a 3.5 point underdog) lost 31-7.
The closest the Bills came to winning the Lombardi Trophy since its inception was in 1993 in a “comeback” game against the Houston Oilers, in which Buffalo was a two-point favorite. There was also a tie between this past postseason (against the Chiefs) and the previous playoff matchup against the Ravens, where the Bills were a 2.5-point favorite in each matchup.
:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25834299/Bills_history.png "Bills fall from favorites to underdogs in divisional round rematch with Ravens 3")
Buffalo went undefeated at home during the regular season this season for the third time in franchise history.
Obviously a lot has changed since these teams met in Week 4 on ESPN Monday Night Football. Buffalo was trailing by just 2.5 points at the time. Books and the public seem to agree that the Ravens are the better team, at least on paper, considering the typical three points awarded as home-field advantage.
The 35-10 loss in Baltimore was certainly a factor, but the Bills have the benefit of having linebackers Matt Milano and Terrell Bernard and nickel cornerback Taron Johnson all available this time around. . Additionally, Buffalo now runs an offense that understands itself much better than it did in the first month of the season.
Home Underdogs NFL Playoff History
Since the turn of the century, home underdog teams are 24-12-1 against the spread in the playoffs. According to Stathead, this is the fourth time since 2000 that a team has been a road favorite in the divisional round.
These road teams are straight up 1-2 against the spread, with the only winner being the San Francisco 49ers, who defeated the Carolina Panthers in January 2014.
The Bills are 20-17-3-3 as an underdog during the Josh Allen era and 5-5 as a home underdog since 2018. But home matchups haven’t been an advantage since the final game of the 2020 season against the Miami Dolphins, which featured mostly reserve players. The Dolphins were in contention for a playoff spot.
It’s no exaggeration to say this is uncharted territory for the Bills, who have had Josh Allen since 2020.
Baltimore has favored three road playoff games in team history, all of which were covered, most recently at Tennessee during the 2021 playoffs.
Quarterback Lamar Jackson is a favorite in his career with a record of 44-41-1, while Josh Allen is behind at 19-14-2. Do you think the odds are really good against Buffalo this Sunday?
