Shares of Eli Lilly (LLY) fell more than 6% on Tuesday after the company reported fourth-quarter 2024 earnings guidance that fell short of Wall Street expectations.
Lilly lowered its revenue outlook by 5% to $13.5 billion, $500 million below the $14 billion consensus. However, this guidance still represents a 45% increase compared to the same quarter in 2023. Lilly had previously offered a range of $13.9 billion to $14.5 billion. The company also announced a forecast for full year 2024 of $45 billion (up 32% from 2023).
“The U.S. incretin (hormone that helps regulate blood sugar levels after meals) market grew 45% compared to the same period a year ago, and our previous guidance is that growth is expected to accelerate further in the quarter. – Channel inventories expected at year-end contributed to the company’s fourth quarter results. Tirzepatide supply in the United States remained available in all doses throughout the fourth quarter as the company continues to ramp up manufacturing. ” in a statement.
Some experts and analysts were surprised by the stock price movement, as the market had expected a slightly weaker fourth quarter.
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“After two consecutive quarters of disappointing results this year, financial performance and pipeline news flow beyond 2025, particularly oral GLP- 1 or Folgripron Ph3 results) are expected to be encouraging.” .
JPMorgan analyst Chris Schott agreed. “Overall, the fourth quarter dynamics represent an overhang in the story, but as the story shifts to ongoing RX growth, newly issued 2025 guidance, and a number of catalysts ahead. I’m expecting it.”
Lilly expects its most anticipated blockbuster GLP-1 tirzepatide products, Mounjaro and Zepbound, to similarly miss consensus.
Guidance for diabetes drug Mounjaro is $3.5 billion, while weight loss drug Zepbound is expected to generate $1.9 billion in revenue for the quarter.
JPMorgan’s latest weekly prescription tracking, based on data from pharmaceutical data firm IQVIA, shows Zepbound’s weekly prescription average for the quarter was up 241% year-over-year, while Mounjaro’s was up 51%.
Anjalee Khemlani is a senior health reporter at Yahoo Finance, covering all areas of pharma, insurance, care services, digital health, PBM, and health policy and politics. Of course, this also includes GLP-1. Follow Anjalee on social media platforms X, LinkedIn, and Bluesky @AnjKhem.
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