Exports rose 10.7% in 2024, exceeding economists’ expectations, according to customs data.
China’s exports will hit a record high in 2024, state media reported, a move for the world’s second-largest economy as tariffs promised by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump threaten to stifle growth. This is a welcome tailwind.
Monday’s customs figures showed exports rose 10.7% from a year earlier, comfortably beating economists’ expectations.
Imports, which had been widely expected to fall, rose 1%, the strongest growth since July 2024, customs statistics showed.
The stronger-than-expected numbers come as President Trump is set to return to the White House on January 20 with a populist economic agenda that includes across-the-board tariffs on Chinese goods.
Economists say Trump’s proposed tariffs would almost certainly raise prices for U.S. consumers and squeeze profit margins for Chinese exporters.
Analysts at Swiss bank UBS estimate that a 60% tariff on Chinese imports would reduce China’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth by 2.5 percentage points over the next 12 months. There is.
Jichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics, said in a note that China’s exports are likely to remain strong in the short term as companies bring forward shipments to avoid higher tariffs. Ta.
“Overseas shipments are likely to remain resilient in the near term, supported by further global market share gains due to real effective exchange rate depreciation,” Huang wrote.
In recent months, the Chinese government has lowered policy interest rates and eased restrictions on real estate purchases, amid concerns that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth target of 5% is on the verge of being missed. , announced some of the most aggressive measures to revitalize the economy.
China’s economy is suffering from its slowest growth in decades amid a number of challenges, including a prolonged real estate crisis, weak consumer confidence and a declining population.
The Chinese government is scheduled to release GDP statistics for the fourth quarter and 2024 as a whole on Friday.
Last month, the World Bank raised its forecast for China’s growth rate in 2024 to 4.9% from the 4.8% forecast in June.
