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The newspaper’s Erich Richter will make predictions about the candidates for the wild card round on Sunday and Monday.
Broncos (+8.5) vs. BILLS
Denver’s defense is too good to be this bad on Sunday afternoon.
Denver finished the season sixth overall on the team in defensive adjusted value over average (DVOA), while the Bills were fourth.
There’s good reason to be skeptical of rookie quarterbacks in the playoffs, especially on the road.
The rookie is 5-17 straight heading into the playoffs, but I view this statistic as a bit misleading.
This record includes injured substitutes Skyler Thompson and Connor Cook, as well as injured Brock Purdy and Mac Jones, so the record of 5 wins and 13 losses is not a little embarrassing. It has become.
Still, if either the Knicks or Jaden Daniels win on the road on Sunday, they will become the first rookies to win on the road in the playoffs since Russell Wilson.
Still, the Knicks won’t be relied on to make big plays. Their defense does a lot of work for him.
Skipping out the Broncos’ underwhelming performance against the Chiefs’ backups in Week 18, Denver allowed the sixth-fewest yards per carry in the NFL from Weeks 12 to 17.
He also had the third-most interceptions (seven) in the same period.
The Bills, who boast an elite offense across the board, shouldn’t take it easy in the store this weekend.
According to FTN’s Stathub, they are allowing 7.8 yards per pass attempt, 28th in the NFL (Weeks 12-17), and their run defense is slightly above average over the same span.
They still beat us 27-20, but we took the points.
Eagles (-5.5) vs. Packers
Philadelphia will be in good shape heading into Sunday’s probably the best matchup of the weekend.
The Packers would be the bet here since they usually rank third in overall DVOA and the Eagles are fifth overall.
I can only see this matchup as a nightmare for Green Bay on top of an unfortunate injury to end the season.
Christian Watson is out with a torn ACL, and Jordan Love appears to be dealing with a hand injury.
We don’t know how that will affect the Packers on Sunday, but we do know that the Eagles’ elite pass defense will be a good fit for the Packers either way.
Since Week 10, Philadelphia has allowed just 5.6 yards per pass attempt, the best number thus far in the NFL.
Their defense is also rated third in EPA (expected points added) against the run, behind the elite defenses of Minnesota and Houston.
Philadelphia and Green Bay should be great games on Sunday, but we have a more reliable offensive line.
Commanders (+3) vs. Buccaneers
My favorite bet this weekend is that the Washington Commanders will do well against the Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium.
Since Week 10, the Washington Commanders have been fifth-best in the NFL in yards per pass defensed, with a completion rate of just 58 percent, the highest in the NFL.
The Buccaneers are really relying on Baker Mayfield to set up their aerial attack, but I’m not too sure if that’s the best strategy, especially considering Marshon Lattimore’s resurgence since joining the lineup.
Having him participate in the stretch run is good for their chances of winning this game.
Tampa Bay ranks last in the league in rushing yards allowed to opposing quarterbacks and struggles on short yards, while Washington’s defense was the best in the NFL on fourth down.
Washington won completely.
Monday
Vikings (-2.5) vs. Rams
With tragedy hitting the Los Angeles area and the game being moved to Arizona, it’s hard to imagine the Rams being completely focused on this game.
However, let’s be real. Either way, the Rams didn’t have home field advantage. It’s really just about the stress of having your home at risk and moving your family to escape a wildfire.
Minnesota lost to the Rams this season, but the statistical case for the Rams ends there.
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It is rated 17th in DVOA compared to Minnesota’s 7th place.
They also have a much better defense, ranking second in DVOA compared to the Rams’ 26th place.
This is the worst defense of any team in the playoffs, just one spot behind the historically bad Bengals defense.
Anything can happen in the NFL, but don’t expect the lights to shine twice on Rams vs. Vikings.
Season: 113-131-3.
