lorry — Campbell University’s Randy Fetterman School of Business hosted a panel discussion on January 2 with leaders from across North Carolina to discuss the current state of the economy and where the economy is headed in 2025.
The event was held at Campbell Law School.
The 2025 Economic Forecast Roundtable was co-sponsored by Business North Carolina magazine and moderated by Ben Kinney, the magazine’s publisher. Dean Kevin O’Mara said this is at least the sixth year the publisher has partnered with a business school to usher in the new year.
“The event went very well,” he said. “I believe there were well over 100 participants. There will be an article about the roundtable in the February issue of Business NC.”
Dr. Michael Seibert, director of graduate and external programs at the School of Business, helped organize the event, which attracted the largest number of participants to date, O’Mara added.
Free Enterprise President Randy and Associate Professor of Economics Mark Steckbeck began the discussion with a look back at 2024, the impact of Hurricane Helen on the western half of the state, and thoughts about next year.
“Things are starting to return to normal in Western North Carolina, and conditions will continue to improve in the mountains with increased federal funding,” he said.
Steckbeck expected economic growth and unemployment to remain roughly flat in the 2.5% range in the new year, although inflation remains high. “We suspect the Fed is not going to change rates in January…but we do see the economy doing well in 2025,” he added.
As the country prepares for President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration, Steckbeck warned that Trump’s proposed tariffs would create other problems. “I don’t think President Trump’s predictions of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada or 35% tariffs on China will materialize,” he added. “We (North Carolina) are the 14th largest exporter in the United States, and our main export destinations are Mexico, Canada and China.”
North Carolina’s 12th District Republican Sen. Jim Bergin, who represents Harnett, Lee and Sampson counties, told the group he was optimistic heading into the new year. “We just want to be the best,” he explained. “My biggest concern for the state is child care. I am proposing to start school at age 3, send juniors and seniors to community college, and change schools across the state to year-round schools. We must fight against the world.”
Bergin said AI is also a big concern going forward.
“We are introducing legislation that would require that if AI is being used, it would have to be made public,” he said. “This technology is interesting, but people need to know it’s being used, especially when it’s being used in areas like medicine.”
Lee Hodge, a business and economic development attorney at Ward & Smith Pennsylvania, said most of his clients had a strong 2024, although inflation generally slowed things down.
“North Carolina continues to be a great place to do business,” Hodge said. “Overall, 2025 is going to be a very good year. The regulatory environment could improve, the tax environment is good and getting better. But Trump in 2017 There are big questions at the federal level as the tax cuts are set to end.”
Byron Hicks is assistant vice chancellor and director of the state’s Small Business and Technology Development Center, an extension of the University of North Carolina System. He said many small businesses were taking on more debt than they were comfortable taking on, and that continued to be a challenge.
“However, I still think this is a great time to start a business and am cautiously optimistic about 2025,” he added. “Non-traditional financing opportunities exist for clients who have had traditional bank loans. There are many other ways to fund this growth for small businesses, and North Carolina has many opportunities.” There is.”
Dr. Phil Mintz of North Carolina State University, NCSU Executive Director The director of Industry Expansion Solutions (IES) and the North Carolina Manufacturing Expansion Partnership added that there are so many products that need to be purchased that have never been made in the United States.
“Using tariffs to lower prices doesn’t work,” he said. “One of the challenges we face is productivity. We need labor and technology. Companies don’t have to go into debt to get these things. The best-performing companies are We have better plans for our workforce, including working with community colleges.”
Obie Knight, CEO of Independent Insurance Agents of North Carolina, concluded the panel discussion. He said insurance is like many other businesses: “When the economy is good, we do well.”
However, in recent years, auto insurance claims inflation has become more severe, and the insurance industry is spending a lot of time studying the increase in storms and their intensity. This includes the damage that Hurricanes Helen and Milton caused back-to-back to the Southeast last year.
Bergin said North Carolinians are also concerned about immigration.
“I think a lot of people working on construction sites will have to leave the country,” he explained. “We have clients who have lived here for 30 years and they don’t have driver’s licenses. We have to solve this, because if we get rid of the ‘bad guys,’ we’ll get plumbers and You won’t be able to hire a roofer.”
Stenbeck added that foreign-born people living in the United States commit far fewer crimes than Americans, on average. Mintz’s biggest concern is rising overall health care costs and government subsidies, and Mintz said he’s concerned about the future of electric vehicles.
“There has been significant investment in the future of electric vehicles,” Mintz added. “If something happens policy-wise, that could be a concern for me.”
