The prospects for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s government are likely to depend on the small opposition party, which secured 28 seats in the 465-member House of Representatives through its electoral success.
The NDP won four seats in October’s general election, winning support from young voters with what some political analysts call populist promises, including measures to increase disposable income as inflation weighs on domestic demand. I doubled it.
As Mr. Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party and its junior coalition partner lose their majority in the House of Representatives and struggle to fulfill their pledges, the Democratic Progressive Party is negotiating with the ruling party on a policy-by-policy basis, further increasing its influence.
Democratic Party of Japan Representative Yuichiro Tamaki (left) hands a policy document to Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba at the Prime Minister’s Office in Tokyo on November 27, 2024 (Kyodo News)
The party’s popularity may reach its peak at a time when President Yuichiro Tamaki will be temporarily removed from official duties until March following revelations of his affair immediately after the election, and uncertainty about whether the party will be able to carry out its priorities increases. Expectations are rising.
Rintaro Nishimura, an associate at business advisory firm Asia Group Japan, said Tamaki and the Democratic Party “haven’t really solidified” their new foundation, adding that supporters “could move to another party at any time.” There is,” he added.
The Democratic Progressive Party is the successor organization to the now-defunct left-wing Democratic Party of Japan, which ruled the country for about three years until December 2012, and has run campaigns using social media to shift its focus away from its core labor union supporters. did.
The simplicity of the headline policy, coupled with Tamaki’s effective use of his YouTube channel, attracted young voters who are often overlooked in an aging Japan, where older generations wield more influence in national elections.
During the campaign, several first-time voters said they were attracted to the party after Tamaki, a former finance ministry official, made a disorganized speech. Tatsuhiro Fukuda (19), a university student, said that the Democratic Party is “the closest to my way of thinking.”
“The first time I heard about him online, I thought he was someone I could trust,” he said, adding that Tamaki’s plan to raise the income tax threshold from the current 1.03 million yen ($6,540) to raise take-home pay He added that key policies will help parents. .
According to a survey by Kyodo News, compared to the 2021 general election in which the Liberal Democratic Party won the lower strata, the Democratic Party received support from people in their 20s, an increase of 11 points to 15%, and support from people in their 30s, an increase of 9 points to 12%. house.
According to another opinion poll conducted in mid-December, the support rate for the main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, was 11.3%, higher than the Democratic Progressive Party’s 12.6%.
Liberal Democratic Party Policy Research Chairman Itsunori Onodera said the ruling coalition has responded to the Democratic Party’s requests “to the best of our ability” and acknowledged that it would be nearly impossible for Ishiba to advance his policies without Tamaki’s support. Ta.
However, given that Mr. Ishiba, who served as the first minister in charge of regional revitalization, is working hard to rebuild the slumping local economy, the Democratic Progressive Party is facing difficulties in promoting policies such as raising the income tax threshold.
According to official estimates, if the Democratic Party’s proposal is fully implemented, the national and local governments will suffer a total annual revenue loss of 7.6 trillion yen. Prefectural governors are asking Mr. Ishiba to protect local revenues.
Koji Nakakita, a political science professor at Chuo University in Tokyo, referred to the Democratic Party and said, “There are questions about how long this popularity will last, and the trigger for this is likely to be negotiations over income tax policy.”
Nakakita said the Democratic Party was too unprepared to achieve its goals. The party bases its ambitious proposal on raising the tax threshold based on the increase in the minimum wage since 1995, while the Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner Komeito advocate more modest adjustments.
He said, “There was no reason to choose such a large hike.Small parties make irresponsible promises to survive, but this time they unexpectedly gained support.” He added that small corrections should be suggested by tracking.
Tohide Kiuchi, executive economist at Nomura Research Institute, had a similar idea, saying that the Democratic Party should “rather than simply demand a large tax cut, we should hold discussions with the ruling party flexibly from a broader perspective.”
Amid signs of an impasse, the Liberal Democratic Party is moving to curb the Democratic Party’s influence in pushing the bill by inviting the 38-seat Nippon Ishin no Kai to discussions on expanding free education.
Although Tamaki has greatly contributed to expanding support for the Democratic Party since its founding in 2018, he will be suspended from his position as leader for the time being after the Party Ethics Committee ruled that he has damaged the party’s image. It happened.
“It’s difficult to find anyone else who enjoys the same level of popularity within the party,” Nakakita said.
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