This is really happening, right? In May, people joked, “Imagine if everything happened in Week 18,” and “The NFL set the schedule for this to happen.” What we all never wanted to happen has now happened and it’s time to face the music. On Sunday, January 5th, the Detroit Lions will host the Minnesota Vikings for two purposes.
NFC Top Seeds into Playoffs NFC North Title
The winner will have a week off before jumping into the playoffs, while the loser could win 14 games and not host a single playoff game in the postseason. This season is the Lions’ best season in franchise history, and it could still mean the Lions qualify as a wild-card team. Detroit is undefeated on the road this season, but in the playoffs it’s a different story. Being familiar with your stadium, field, routine, and having a raucous crowd on your side will give you a bit of an advantage no matter who you’re across from.
Take a look at the Vikings in the Week 18 Scouting Report for the 2024 season.
minnesota vikings
2024 season so far (14 wins, 2 losses)
Week 1: Defeat New York Giants 28-6
Week 2: Defeated the San Francisco 49ers 23-17.
Week 3: Beat the Houston Texans 34-7.
Week 4: 31-29 win over the Green Bay Packers.
Week 5: Defeat New York Jets 23-17
Week 6: Bye-bye
Week 7: Lost 31-29 to the Detroit Lions.
Week 8: Lost 30-20 to the Los Angeles Rams.
Week 9: Defeat the Indianapolis Colts 21-13
Week 10: Defeat Jacksonville Jaguars 12-7
Week 11: Defeated the Tennessee Titans 23-13.
Week 12: 30-27 (OT) win over the Chicago Bears.
Week 13: Defeat Arizona Cardinals 23-22
Week 14: Defeated the Atlanta Falcons 42-21.
Week 15: 30-12 win over Chicago Bears
Week 16: Defeat Seattle Seahawks 27-24
Week 17: 27-25 win over the Green Bay Packers.
statistics:
9th in points scored, 4th in goals allowed 7th in DVOA 14th in offensive DVOA (9th in passing DVOA, 20th in run DVOA) 3rd in defensive DVOA (1st in passing DVOA, 3rd in run DVOA) 24th in special teams DVOA
After the loss to the Lions, many (myself included) believed the Vikings would come back to earth. That belief was further strengthened after the Vikings lost to the Rams the following week and their starting left tackle went down for the year. We were all wrong. The Vikings bounced back from those two losses and never looked back. The Vikings have been fortunate this season, winning nine games by one score, but seem to be proving themselves as the season progresses. People keep disrespecting them and keep finding ways to win the game, it’s so easy. At the end of the day, as long as you score more points than the other team, does it matter how you got there?
Quarterback Sam Darnold was a bit put off by the early MVP hype, but he’s still having a career season, throwing for career-highs 4,153 yards and 35 touchdowns. He’s proven a lot of people wrong this season and he’s on a one-year deal, so should Minnesota keep Darnold or let him go and run with McCarthy in 2025? A big problem is emerging. It helps when you have the best receiver in the NFL in Justin Jefferson. He currently ranks second in the NFL in receiving yards and tied for fifth in receiving touchdowns.
Rush’s game was boosted a bit by running back Cam Akers, who was on the roster the last time the team played, but he did not play. Starting running back Aaron Jones has rushed for 1,093 yards this season and contributed in the backfield after leaving Green Bay.
As of Week 7, Minnesota’s biggest talking point was defense, and it’s no surprise. They were #1 in overall defensive DVOA. The defense took a slight step back, dropping to 3rd in DVOA and 3rd in rushing defense DVOA. There have been no notable changes to the lineup since the last matchup, with only linebacker Blake Cashman returning from injury.
Linebackers Andrew Van Ginkel and Jonathan Greenard are the team’s sack masters, combining for 22.5. Minnesota’s defensive strategy expects them to blitz hard and often. Cornerback Byron Murphy leads the team with six interceptions, and the defense as a whole has committed 31 turnovers this season, including 22 interceptions (first) and eight turnovers. fumble recoveries (10th). Detroit has to protect the football well if it’s going to hold off Minnesota. Otherwise, things can quickly deteriorate.
record of injury
Key players excluded: QB JJ McCarthy (IR/knee), CB Mekhi Blackmon (IR/ACL), LT Christian Darrisaw (IR/ACL/MCL)
Key players to watch: RB Aaron Jones (quad), DE Pat Jones II (knee)
The Vikings’ injury list is similar when compared to the previous game. Starting left tackle Christian Darrisaw was placed on the IR list along with McCarthy and cornerback Mekhi Blackmon, who tore his ACL and MCL in Week 8. Jones suffered a quadriceps contusion in Week 17 against the Packers, but head coach Kevin O’Connell said they kept him out for the remainder of the game for precautionary reasons. Coach O’Connell said Monday that Jones is feeling well and should play Sunday. He also said defensive end Pat Jones II will have a chance to play Sunday. He ranks third on the team with seven sacks.
Biggest strength: Passing attack
The biggest strengths the Lions have to worry about now are wide receiver and tight end, as they have installed Carlton Davis III as their top cornerback. Rookies Terrion Arnold and Amik Robertson will have their hands full with Jefferson (1,479 yards, 10 TDs).
The problem is, even if Jefferson is well covered, the Lions still have other players to worry about. Wide receivers Jordan Addison (875 yards, 9 TDs) and Jalen Naylor (361 yards, 6 TDs) also continue to be active in the passing game.
And just when you think your relationship with the receiver is over, an old friend returns to where it all began. Hockenson missed the final games for both teams, but he skyrocketed up the stat sheet in just nine games played this season. He’s averaging just under 50 yards per game but has yet to find the end zone. I’m sure he wants to go to Detroit.
The Vikings are fourth in yards per pass attempt (8.3), fourth in the NFL in passing yards (4,213) and fifth in passing touchdowns (35). They are fifth in yards per catch at 12.2 and are more explosive through the air, leading the NFL with 62 passing plays of 20 yards or more and eighth in passing plays of 40 or more yards with 10 . If this team is going to beat you, it’s you. Through the air.
Biggest Weakness: Ground Attack
What was a problem the last time these teams played continues to be a problem for Minnesota. Despite having 139 yards rushing and a touchdown in the first game, the Vikings still seem to struggle running the football against the rest of the NFL. Aaron Jones has played well for Minnesota, gaining over 1,000 yards and rushing for 4.5 yards per carry, but the team’s overall average YPC was just 4.0, tied for fourth worst in the NFL. are. Among the playoff teams, only the Kansas City Chiefs have the same yards per carry, and the Rams are even worse at 3.9.
It’s not just about carrying the football, it’s about finding the end zone. Minnesota has only nine rushing touchdowns this season, fourth-fewest in the NFL. In order to win these big games, Minnesota will have to rely more on its passing attack than its ground game, and that’s not what you want when the postseason approaches.
Key matchup: Lions secondary vs. Vikings wide receivers
The best way for the Lions to win this game is if they can win with their defense, primarily using their secondary. The defensive line will definitely need to generate pressure, but the secondary will face a tough test whether or not the Lions acquire Darnold. Arnold will play the rest of the season, but the hope is that Sunday can be a positive checkmark heading into his rookie season after an up-and-down season so far.
The safety duo of Kirby Joseph and Brian Branch should have a big impact. Fellow safety Ifeetu Melifonwu can also cause havoc with both his coverage and blitzing ability. His ability to do both could give Detroit a shine it didn’t have in their last matchup. He also made the game-clinching interception against the Vikings last year to win a division title for Detroit, so we know the bright lights won’t mean much to him.
Sunday’s Las Vegas line: Lions favored by 2.5 points.
