Heading into 2025, democracy looks bruised, but not defeated.
In a year when countries with nearly half the world’s population called their voters to the polls, democracies endured violence and great fear, but also proved resilient.
Former US President Donald Trump survived two assassination attempts, regained the White House in a clear victory and is expected to peacefully transition to power next month, despite concerns of disputed results and unrest.
Mexico went on to elect its first female president, Claudia Sheinbaum, after 37 candidates were assassinated before the vote, marking one of the bloodiest elections in modern history.
Across four continents, elections wiped out incumbent leaders, often sparking violence, but ultimately achieving the core function of democracy: the orderly transfer of power in line with the wishes of voters.
In South Africa and India, ruling parties remained in power for many years but lost their outright majorities.
why is it important
This month’s political crisis in South Korea shows why the health of democracy is important.
Within an embarrassing few hours, the president of Asia’s fourth-largest economy and a key ally of the U.S. military declared martial law in an evening televised address, but lawmakers and large crowds rebelled against him. Therefore, it was immediately withdrawn.
The National Assembly subsequently impeached President Yoon Seok-yeol, but he has rejected calls to resign and is awaiting a Constitutional Court ruling on his future. The incident rattled markets and South Korea’s allies, who are concerned about the country’s ability to deter nuclear-armed North Korea.
In Europe, far-right groups have gained power in Germany, France, Austria, the European Parliament, and even Romania, where presidential elections are being re-held following allegations of Russian interference.
This has sparked a lively academic debate about whether Europe is reliving a milder version of the 1930s, when fascism marched on.
In both Georgia and Moldova, pro-Russian parties also outperformed poll expectations.
Europe’s rightward shift reflects economic anxiety, but the same concerns have driven some political changes in other directions, such as in Britain, where the left-wing Labor Party ended 14 years of conservative government.
Overall, this year has been peaceful, said Yana Gorokhovskaya, research director at Freedom House, a U.S.-based democracy lobby that publishes an annual report on global democracy. There was no attempt to prevent the transfer of power.
But Gorokhovskaya said 2024 will see even more repression in authoritarian states, citing fake elections in Russia, Iran and Venezuela. Freedom House said that in a quarter of the 62 elections held between January 1 and November 5, voters had no real choice at the ballot box.
“It’s not so much that democracy is losing ground, it’s that dictatorship is getting worse,” she says.
What it means for 2025
Elections scheduled for 2025 will be significantly reduced, but Germany, a country so traumatized by the Nazi era that it introduced checks and balances to prevent right-wing extremists from regaining power, will I’ll probably try the appeal again.
German voters will elect a new parliament on February 23rd.
Another focus for 2025 will be how democratic institutions, such as a free press and an independent judiciary, will function under leaders who came to power or were re-elected this year.
In that context, Freedom House says it will consider President Trump’s actions during his second term.
President Trump has described the mainstream news media as corrupt and said he would investigate or prosecute political opponents, former intelligence officials and prosecutors who investigated him.
Next year is also likely to be a momentous one for Bangladesh and Syria, where revolutions have toppled authoritarian leaders with breathtaking speed.
The head of Bangladesh’s interim government, Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, has begun formulating electoral reforms after mass protests led to Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s resignation and exile in India. He said elections could be held by the end of 2025 if the most fundamental reforms are implemented first.
After 13 years of civil war in Syria, insurgents have seized control of the capital Damascus in a lightning move, and President Bashar al-Assad has fled to Russia. Most of the country is currently run by rebels led by the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group, which is listed as a terrorist group by some Western countries.
The new rulers have spoken of tolerance and the rule of law, but have so far made no public announcements about the elections.
