Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics
With three weeks left in the 2024 regular season, the picture for the NFL playoffs has settled down in an unusual way. Seven teams have qualified for the postseason, three in the NFC and four in the AFC, with seven remaining teams remaining.
Which team will fill that spot? Based on 10,000 simulations of the end of the season using ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), there were 4,393 unique combinations of playoff teams and seeds. However, below we will focus on one particular scenario: choke.
The ESPN FPI model produced the exact set of teams and seeds that are most likely to occur. This scenario is not all that likely, as the exact seeding of the 14 teams below occurred in 73 simulations. This is less than 1%, but more likely than any other combination. Individually, the following AFC seeds have an 11% chance of occurring, and NFC seeds have a 6% chance of occurring.
From the series of simulations that generated the chalk playoff field, we randomly selected one to show you how everything plays out in the regular season and beyond. When we ran this exercise a year ago, the simulation accurately identified participants and outcomes for both the conference championship game and the Super Bowl.
Does this scenario match that? Welcome to Simulation No. 812. Here’s how the rest of the 2024 NFL season plays out.
Jump to:
Weekly score prediction: 16 | 17 | 18
Final standings: AFC | NFC
Playoffs: Who will win Super Bowl LIX?
Predicted score for week 16
Denluck: Chargers 22, Broncos 20
HOU-KC: Chiefs 28, Texans 24
Pitval: Steelers 30, Ravens 24
NYG-ATL: Falcons 33, Giants 30
NE-BUF: Bills 19, Patriots 8
DET-CHI: Lions 28, Bears 22
CLE-CIN: Browns 33, Bengals 30
TEN-IND: Colts 24, Titans 9
LAR-NYJ: Jets 16, Rams 13
PHI-WSH: Commanders 20, Eagles 17
ARI-CAR: Panthers 17, Cardinals 16
Mincey: Seahawks 30, Vikings 20
JAX-LV: Jaguars 24, Raiders 16
SF-MIA: 49ers 24, Dolphins 14
TB-DAL: Buccaneers 21, Cowboys 14
NO-GB: Packers 27, Saints 24
What Happened: The most important outcome of Week 16 came in the AFC North rivalry game between the Steelers and Ravens. Fresh off a loss to the Eagles, Pittsburgh came off the mat and defeated Baltimore. Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson once again produced explosive plays downfield, shutting out the AFC North for Pittsburgh and relegating the Ravens to the Wild Card spot.
Editor’s picks
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In a battle of AFC wild-card contenders, the Chargers narrowly edged out the Broncos, giving Los Angeles a head-to-head tiebreaker over Denver. That could be important in avoiding the Bills (or Chiefs) in the playoffs.
Elsewhere, managers complicated the Eagles’ quest for a No. 1 seed in the NFC. This was part of a great week for the Lions, who strengthened their hold on first place with a win over the Bears and an upset of the Vikings by the Seahawks. With Seattle’s win and the Rams’ loss to the Jets, the Seahawks returned to first place in the NFC West. There are only two weeks left.
Predicted score for week 17
KC-PIT: Steelers 20, Chiefs 17
Bar Fu: Texans 34, Ravens 14
SEA-CHI: Seahawks 24, Bears 17
NYJ-BUF: Bills 25, Jets 24
GB-MIN: Vikings 24, Packers 16
LV-NO: Raiders 24, Saints 7
CAR-TB: Buccaneers 23, Panthers 3
Ten Jacks: Jaguars 27, Titans 14
Dalphi: Cowboys 17, Eagles 10
Densin: Broncos 34, Bengals 20
Ariral: Rams 17, Cardinals 10
LAC-NE: Patriots 45, Chargers 14
IND-NYG: Giants 31, Colts 14
ATL-WSH: Falcons 26, Commanders 15
MIA-CLE: Dolphins 21, Browns 13
DET-SF: Lions 38, 49ers 31
What happened: The Chiefs put their right to the AFC’s No. 1 seed in jeopardy, losing to the Steelers while the Bills (barely) held on against the Jets. This would put Buffalo within one game of Kansas City in the head-to-head tiebreaker, meaning it could clinch the top seed in Week 18 if the Bills beat the Patriots and Kansas City loses to the Broncos.
The Falcons, led by new starting quarterback Michael Penix Jr., upset the Commanders to keep the pressure on the Buccaneers in the NFC South, but Tampa Bay countered by dismantling the Panthers.
And the Rams and Seahawks won by touchdowns over the Cardinals and Bears, respectively, setting up a Week 18 showdown for the NFC West title at SoFi Stadium.
Predicted score for week 18
CAR-ATL: Panthers 31, Falcons 10
WSH-DAL: Commanders 27, Cowboys 24
KC-DEN: Chiefs 33, Broncos 27
MIN-DET: Lions 30, Vikings 21
CHI-GB: Packers 10, Bears 3
Gauteng: Titans 31, Texans 28
JAX-IND: Jaguars 20, Colts 9
LAC-LV: Charger 34, Raider 20
Sealers: Rams 16, Seahawks 7
BUF-NE: Bills 45, Patriots 15
MIA-NYJ: Dolphins 30, Jets 17
NYG-PHI: Eagles 34, Giants 17
SF-ARI: 49ers 19, Cardinals 10
CIN-PIT: Bengals 23, Steelers 7
NO-TB: Buccaneers 27, Saints 13
CLE-BAL: Ravens 36, Browns 10
What happened: The Chiefs held on to the No. 1 seed…by a narrow margin. Kansas City needed to beat Denver, as the Bills defeated the Patriots 45-15. On the final drive, the ball was in the hands of Bo Nix, making it a six-point deficit and the game in jeopardy. However, the Chiefs got the stop they needed and held on for the win to earn the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye.
The Bucks cruised to victory over the Saints, clinching the NFC South championship for the fourth consecutive season. However, they didn’t need a win to win the division title, as the Falcons lost to the Panthers in an unexpected blowout, ending Atlanta’s playoff hopes.
In the battle for the NFC West title and the only non-district playoff spot, the Rams used a defensive effort to defeat the Seahawks. According to ESPN Research, Los Angeles became the first team in NFL history to reach the postseason two years in a row despite being under .500 for three games at one point.
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AFC projection
1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)
2. Buffalo Bills (14-3)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-5)
4. Houston Texans (10-7)
5. Baltimore Ravens (10-7)
6. Los Angeles Chargers (10-7)
7. Denver Broncos (10-7)
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8. Miami Dolphins (8-9)
9. Indianapolis Colts (7-10)
10. Cincinnati Bengals (7-10)
11. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-11)
12. New York Jets (5-12)
13. Tennessee Titans (4-13)
14. Cleveland Browns (4-13)
15. New England Patriots (4 wins, 13 losses)
16. Las Vegas Raiders (3-14)
Chiefs keep No. 1 seed: Kansas City weathered the storm of Patrick Mahomes’ ankle injury and losses to the Steelers and a red-hot Bills team right behind them to earn the all-important No. 1 seed. From Isiah Likely’s toe barely going out of bounds in Week 1, to his blocked field goal attempt against the Broncos in Week 10, to Aidan O’Connell’s fumble in the final seconds against Black. It turned out that the Chiefs’ wild finish was all they needed. Friday — To take the top spot.
Ravens bounce back to earn No. 5 seed: After the Steelers cut off their AFC North matchup with the Ravens, Baltimore must set its sights on a No. 4 vs. No. 5 seed matchup during wild-card weekend. Ta. But it became a real problem when the Ravens lost to the Texans in Week 17. The Ravens bounced back in Week 18, defeating the Browns for their 10th win of the season and defeating the fifth-seeded Browns with head-to-head wins over the Chargers and Broncos. . This forced the Ravens to face the weaker Texans (as opposed to the Bills and Steelers) in the playoffs, securing them an outside shot in subsequent home games.
Chargers, Broncos round out AFC playoff field: In this scenario, the Chargers and Broncos both finished 10-7 (tied with the Ravens), but the Chargers edged the Broncos by 2 in the head-to-head tiebreaker. He won the 6th seed. This leaves the Chargers to face the Steelers in the wild card round and the Broncos have to go to Buffalo.
Project NFC
1. Detroit Lions (15-2)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (13-4)
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-6)
4. Los Angeles Rams (10-7)
5. Minnesota Vikings (13-4)
6. Green Bay Packers (12-5)
7. Washington Commanders (11-6)
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8. Seattle Seahawks (10-7)
9. Atlanta Falcons (9-8)
10. San Francisco 49ers (8-9)
11. Dallas Cowboys (7-10)
12. Arizona Cardinals (7-10)
13. New Orleans Saints (5-12)
14. Carolina Panthers (5-12)
15. Chicago Bears (4-13)
16. New York Giants (3-14)
Lions run away to No. 1 seed: Looks precarious at the moment due to injuries, but Detroit’s hold on the No. 1 seed quickly strengthens in simulation No. 812, with two teams vying for first place in Week 16 were rivals, and the Lions won — losing to Minnesota and Philadelphia. The NFC’s road to the Super Bowl passes through Ford Field.
Buccaneers stay strong, win NFC South: Baker Mayfield’s show was a roaring one as the Buccaneers closed out the regular season with seven straight wins. The Falcons should have won and the Bucks should have dropped the game, but neither happened.
Rams beat NFC West in regular season finale: The league has moved their Week 18 matchup to Sunday night as the Seahawks and Rams battle for the division title and the only NFC West playoff spot. The nation watched as Jared Verse, Koby Turner, and Braden Fisk cornered Seattle quarterback Geno Smith, and the Rams won thanks to a head-to-head tiebreaker, keeping their season alive.
Managers earn wild card berths: Outside of the NFC West, most of the NFC field is settled heading into Week 16. The manager still had work to do, defeating the Eagles and Cowboys in the final three weeks to secure a postseason berth, earning him the No. 7 seed with 11 wins.
Giants get No. 1 overall pick: Incredibly, the Giants, Raiders, Patriots, Browns, Titans, Jaguars, and Panthers, all candidates for the top No. 1 overall pick, have all won at least one of their last three games. . This leaves the Giants and Raiders as the only three-win teams. In this simulation, the Giants won the schedule strength tiebreaker and secured the top pick in the 2025 draft.
What to expect in the playoffs
Predicted wild card matchups:
Broncos (7) vs. Bills (2)
Chargers (6) vs. Steelers (3)
Ravens (5) vs. Texans (4)
Commander at Eagles (7) (2)
Packers (6) vs. Buccaneers (3)
Vikings (5) vs. Rams (4)
Who will go to the end? Please note that this is one simulation. The chalk part of this exercise ends with the regular season, and from there it’s pure (weighted) randomness. Still, I wanted to know how it would turn out, and I’m sure you would too.
In the AFC, the Bills and Steelers won their home Wild Card games, but the Ravens went on the road and defeated the Texans in a close 27-24 game. The No. 5 seed won the NFC as well, with the Vikings defeating the Rams. Elsewhere, the Buccaneers defeated the Packers, and the Eagles narrowly defeated the Commanders 30-28.
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In the divisional round, the favorites reigned supreme, with one exception. The Ravens defeated the Chiefs 27-7 at Arrowhead, ending Kansas City’s hopes of winning a third consecutive championship. The Eagles defeated the Bucks by two touchdowns, and the Bills and Lions fended off the Steelers and Vikings with one-score games each.
The AFC Championship Game was a close battle between the two MVP leaders, but Josh Allen and the Bills won 24-23, clinching a trip to the Super Bowl for the first time in 31 years. In the NFC, the Lions’ defense shut out AJ Brown, Saquon Barkley, and the Eagles, winning 23-10 and earning the franchise their first Super Bowl berth.
Predicted Super Bowl LIX matchup: Buffalo (2) vs. Detroit (1)
Similar to the Bills-Lions showdown in Week 15, Buffalo got to a two-point lead and never relinquished it. Riding on Allen’s incredible rushing performance and elite play from the secondary, the Bills defeated the Lions 27-13 to win their first Super Bowl title.
ESPN’s Hank Gargiulo contributed to this report.
