CNN
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President Donald Trump is stirring up political turmoil in Canada by escalating a crisis that threatens to oust Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
The president-elect’s bullying of his embattled political opponent, whom he mocks as governor of America’s 51st state in an insult to America’s loyal northern neighbor, has sparked a global debate as he seeks a landslide victory for a second term. His prowling foreshadows a combative strategy even before the election begins. Appointed.
And his aggressive intrusion into the domestic politics of his allies is a warning to other war-torn governments, such as France, Germany and South Korea, whose political turmoil and internal divisions may make it difficult to fight back. It should be.
President Trump’s threat to impose 25% tariffs on Canadian goods to force action from Ottawa on border issues has left Prime Minister Trudeau with fears of a deep recession ahead of an election year. , the president will be in serious trouble.
It also signifies an extremely tough approach to the country, which has deep diplomatic, cultural and familial ties to the United States, accounts for half of the world’s most lucrative trade relationships, and has sent troops to protect allies after war. do. The 9/11 terrorist attack occurred in 2001.
Trudeau, an already reeling Liberal prime minister, may have suffered an existential blow this week with the sensational resignation of Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland. Freeland made the accusations against his governance just hours before he was scheduled to deliver a key budget statement for 2016. Parliament.
Policy tensions between Canada’s two most powerful politicians have simmered for months, with the Liberal Party consistently trailing the opposition Conservative Party by about 20 points in opinion polls. The general election to be held by next autumn was already looking hopeless.
However, President Trump’s tariff strategy has fueled political fire within Canada’s cabinet. In his scathing resignation letter, Freeland, a longtime Trudeau supporter, effectively accused Trump of pursuing frivolous policies that would put Canada in a bad light.
“Our nation faces significant challenges today. The next U.S. administration is pursuing aggressive economic nationalist policies, including the threat of 25% tariffs. We take that threat extremely seriously. We need to accept it,” Freeland wrote. “It means not depleting our fiscal firepower today, and it means securing reserves that may be needed for the upcoming tariff war,” Freeland added. “We cannot afford to do so, and that means avoiding expensive political maneuvers that make Canadians question whether we recognize the gravity of this moment.”
After nine years in power, Prime Minister Trudeau has wasted the trust of many Canadians and his party. Speculation is rife over whether he will step down early next year, let his party choose a new leader and prime minister, or whether a vote of confidence could topple the minority government and trigger a snap election. .
“I’m not saying Trump’s election is changing the Canadian government, but it’s certainly changing the conversation, and it’s changing the conversation about what the next election will be about and how the government will respond,” said Matthew Lebo, a visiting professor at McGill University in Montreal. “We’re changing things,” he said. . “And perhaps he’s trying to change the timing of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation,” added Lebo, who also teaches political science at the University of Western Ontario.
For President Trump, this week’s turmoil in Canadian politics couldn’t have been better. He damaged Mr. Trudeau by ousting Mr. Freeland, with whom he clashed when he led trade negotiations with the United States during his first term. He clearly doesn’t like Mr. Trudeau, who is seen as a wimp and an ultra-progressive in his orbit. And “I woke up.”
“Canadians are stunned that the Minister of Finance has resigned or been removed from his position by Governor Justin Trudeau,” President Trump wrote on Truth Social on Tuesday. “Her actions were completely harmful and in no way conducive to a beneficial transaction for very unfortunate Canadians. She will not be missed!!!”
This is a revengeful move by the leader of a great power against its largest trading partner. But this fits with President Trump’s view that all foreign policy interactions are akin to transactional business disputes between two adversaries, in which only one side can win.
And President Trump’s strategy appears to be working. Trudeau, for example, rushed to Mar-a-Lago last month to pay his respects and affirm Trump’s superiority in the relationship. This may have further heightened the prime minister’s tensions with Freeland, who supports Canada’s tougher approach. President Trump has also shattered the political cohesion north of the border that had previously been important to Canada’s approach to relations with Washington. For example, Ontario Premier Doug Ford warned that Canada should cut off critical energy exports to the United States in retaliation for President Trump’s threats, a move that has prompted Ontario’s leaders, especially The move distanced them from the leaders of the carbon-rich prairies.
“We want to sell more power. Give more power to our friends in the United States and our closest allies around the world. But it’s a tool in our toolbox,” Ford told CNN’s Erin Burnett on Tuesday. spoke. “We ship 4.3 million barrels of crude oil every day. If we put a tariff on that, it would increase the price of gasoline by $1 a gallon, and that’s not going to work very well.” But the Progressive Conservative Party Ontario’s premier said he wants to work with Trump because the United States and Canada are strong together.
Trump knows he is acting from a position of strength. The United States is the strongest partner in this relationship, and while a full-scale trade war would hurt American consumers, the earliest and most severe effects would be felt in Canada.
President Trump’s calls for Canada to do more to deter illegal immigration and cut off the flow of fentanyl across the border have prompted Ottawa to invest hundreds of millions of dollars, even if these issues pale in comparison to the situation. He promised to increase border security and personnel. At the US-Mexico border.
But Trump’s disdain for alliances other presidents have fostered over decades and his resistance to win-win compromises have meant that while he was in power, America’s friends It has become difficult to maintain normal relations with the United States.
This attitude is almost certain to become even more pronounced in President Trump’s second term. In the case of Canada and Mexico, he appears to be aiming for significant concessions ahead of the planned renegotiation of the USMCA continental trade agreement. He hailed it as a high-profile victory in his first term, but now he wants changes.
“We lost a tremendous amount of money to Canada. (a) tremendous amount of money,” the president-elect said Monday at a press conference at Mar-a-Lago. “We’re subsidizing Canada. We’re subsidizing Mexico. We can’t continue to do that. We get along very well with the people of Mexico and Canada, but we can’t allow that to happen. “No,” he continued, “why do we support other countries and donate hundreds of billions of dollars? It’s not fair. It’s not right.”
It’s not clear what President Trump means by the United States giving hundreds of billions of dollars to other countries. He may be referring to trade deficits, which he often seems to think are evidence that other countries are taking advantage of the United States, but often, by a healthy measure of the United States, where are they coming from? This reflects U.S. consumers’ eagerness to purchase products even if they are cheap. economic prosperity.
The strength of President Trump’s negotiating position reflects his highest level of confidence since his election victory. He speaks for millions of Americans who believe global free trade has hollowed out American manufacturing and benefited business elites who sent jobs to low-wage economies overseas. Many of these communities are located in border states close to Canada.
While past U.S. political leaders have seen global trade and agreements with North America, China, and the European Union as forces that spread wealth, many Trump supporters believe that they have left entire regions behind and left behind social poverty. They blame the economic devastation that has created .
However, the reality of continental trade is also complex. Manufacturing and supply chains are deeply intertwined with trade agreements. For example, car parts may cross multiple borders before being finally assembled. Therefore, a trade war between the United States and Mexico and Canada could have a negative impact not only on U.S. workers and consumers, but also on those who cross the country’s northern and southern borders.
Trump currently has Canada and Mexico in his sights, but once he takes office next month, he is sure to turn his attention to what he sees as other unfair trade relationships.
President Trump is likely to try a divide-and-conquer strategy among European countries, seeking to mirror his success in creating dissonance within Canada. Although some of these countries enjoy the protection of the European Union’s collective trading power, he has many political disagreements to contend with. French President Emmanuel Macron has been embroiled in a self-inflicted political crisis in recent months. The government of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has just collapsed ahead of next year’s elections. Britain’s new Prime Minister Keir Starmer has an overwhelming majority, but after Brexit Britain no longer enjoys the EU’s protection and Trump’s treatment of Canada has left the small, loyal ally hoping for a break. It shows that it is not possible.
President Trump has another motive for pursuing hardline politics. Conservative populists are powerful in these countries, and President Trump certainly wants to do business with them. Canada’s Conservative Party leader Pierre Poièvre, a brash right-winger by his country’s standards but widely seen as the country’s next prime minister, was the focus of the 2022 truck driver protests in Ottawa that supported President Trump. Because of his support for the movement, he was treated as a big name by conservative media in the United States. The populism of the style was evident.
As rhetoric escalates across the 49th parallel, Canadians are getting an early taste of what a second term for President Trump will be like. But everyone else will soon catch up.
“I don’t think Canadians expected the second term to be so different from the first. …Certainly, I think this is going to be a dramatically different four years than the first four years. ” Lebo said.
“And I think Canadians are just starting to understand that and don’t know what to do. I think they’re going to look for a different leader than Justin Trudeau, a different party than the Liberals. We will hold out in hopes that Canada’s new government will stop Donald Trump from targeting this country and target someone else.”
