What happens in Seoul doesn’t stay in Seoul. The South Korean Constitutional Court began impeachment proceedings against President Yun Seok-Yeol this week. On December 14, after Yoon’s attempt to declare martial law was called off, Congress voted to impeach him, suspend him from office, and install President Han Deok-soo as interim leader. It led to The effects of this sophisticated political drama will be felt far beyond South Korea’s borders. So we consulted experts to explore the burning questions of what’s happening and what it means for the region and the United States.
1. Why was Mr. Yoon impeached?
Yun was impeached by the National Assembly on December 14th for attempting to impose martial law in violation of the constitution. Yun declared martial law on December 3, citing the need to protect South Korea from “North Korean communist forces” and “anti-national forces,” and to “rebuild and protect” the nation from “collapse.” I mentioned it. He accused the opposition of trying to undermine democracy by impeaching ministers and blocking budget proposals. His decision appeared to be influenced by right-wing YouTube channels that exaggerated perceived threats to the regime and spread conspiracy theories. The impeachment highlights the effectiveness of democratic checks and balances, as Yun’s misguided authoritarian decisions were ultimately overturned through parliamentary action.
—Sungmin Cho is a nonresident senior fellow with the Indo-Pacific Security Initiative at the Scowcroft Center for Strategic Security at the Atlantic Council.
Impeachment is rare in the United States, with only three presidents in nearly two and a half centuries facing impeachment proceedings. Conversely, three South Korean presidents have faced impeachment in just 20 years, and several others have resigned under less-than-ideal circumstances.
Martial law is also unknown in South Korea. This country experienced it in the 1970s under the Park Chung-hee regime. And the Korean people fought with blood, sweat, and tears to establish true democracy. With martial law still fresh in the minds of many in the country, calls for the impeachment of Mr. Yoon, who was already deeply unpopular in South Korea, grew louder. South Koreans are very pro-democracy, and Yoon’s attempt to impose martial law was particularly shocking since his first action after martial law was to prevent the National Assembly from voting to end martial law. This has led to comparisons with the authoritarian Park Chung Hee administration. This move was undoubtedly a step too far for the Korean people, and the calls for impeachment were an expression by the people that they would not take lightly the threat to the democratic process.
—Lauren D. Gilbert is deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Indo-Pacific Security Initiative.
2. What is the potential removal process?
When the National Assembly impeached Yun, his powers were immediately suspended and the prime minister became acting president. The impeachment case will now be heard by the Constitutional Court, which will have up to 180 days to decide whether Yoon has violated the constitution and laws to the extent that he deserves to be removed from office. In the impeachment case against former President Park Geun-hye, which began in late 2016, it took the Constitutional Court 92 days to reach a decision. Yoon and the National Assembly plan to present arguments, evidence, and witnesses in a trial-like procedure before the judges of the Constitutional Court. If upheld, Yun would be formally removed from office and a presidential election would be held within 60 days. If rejected, he will be reinstated. Throughout this period, public opinion and political debate will intensify as the public awaits the court’s final decision.
— Cho Sung-min
As Yun faces impeachment, the Constitutional Court must issue a ruling within 180 days, and a vote would require at least six of the nine judges of the Grand Chamber to vote in favor of impeachment. However, there are currently only six judges on the court and three seats are vacant. This has led to debate over when and how the court should proceed. Some say there should be a vote among the six sitting justices, but others say the vacancies need to be filled first.
There is also debate over whether the judges should be appointed by the National Assembly, or whether Prime Minister Han Do-soo, who took over the presidential office during the impeachment process, has the right to appoint the three judges. Further complicating matters, the court has several other impeachment cases still awaiting decision, adding to the overcrowding of the Constitutional Court. While the government awaits a decision on how to proceed with the appointment (or non-appointment) of the three vacant seats, there remains a possibility that Yoon’s impeachment will be overturned. There is precedent for this. Former President Roh Moo-hyun’s impeachment was overturned in 2004, but unlike Yun, Roh had the support of the people.
—Lauren D. Gilbert
3. What does this mean for relations between South Korea and Japan?
For the time being, Japan and South Korea will continue to broadly communicate and coordinate along the lines established over the past two and a half years. But South Korea, and to some extent Japan, will have limited political capital to take new steps to strengthen ties. Instead, Japan and South Korea are committed to making both their bilateral relationship and the trilateral security framework with Washington strong and long-term to minimize the impact of future political changes. focused.
Japan is concerned about who will become South Korea’s president if impeachment passes. With progressives gaining political momentum in Seoul, there are growing concerns that the progress made in Japan-South Korea relations in recent years could be reversed. On the positive side, however, Japan and South Korea are rebuilding their relationship and working on mechanisms and procedures for closer strategic and operational cooperation, setting a strong precedent for the future.
—Ryo Hinata Yamaguchi is a non-resident senior fellow at the Indo-Pacific Security Initiative.
4. What does this mean for relations with Washington and trilateral security cooperation with the United States and Japan?
In the short term, acting President Han is already moving toward ensuring continued alignment of the alliance between Seoul and Washington. Given the strong institutional memory and mechanisms of the Alliance, key meetings and working-level coordination are likely to return to some degree of normalcy. In practice, however, the timing of this political crisis will make high-level strategic coordination and progress on key alliance issues difficult in 2025. When US President-elect Donald Trump takes office, South Korea will only have an acting president. In January. It could also take up to eight months for a new president to be elected, depending on how long the Constitutional Court takes to rule on the impeachment case. Furthermore, if the court does not uphold the impeachment, it cannot be ruled out that Yoon will be significantly weakened and there will be a prolonged period of uncertainty before he returns to power in a precarious position.
—Markus Galauskas is director of the Indo-Pacific Security Initiative and a former national intelligence officer in North Korea.
5. What can we expect from North Korea now?
North Korea appears for some time to be laying the groundwork for a new military conflict with South Korea, which could begin at a particularly inopportune time for the alliance. However, North Korea’s silence so far suggests that it is waiting for the outcome of the Constitutional Court’s ruling and the election of South Korea’s new president before trying to take advantage of the situation. are. North Korea is probably aware that pursuing a showdown with interim President Han may simply strengthen the position of South Korean conservatives, who tend to take a harder line against North Korea. Probably. Meanwhile, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is likely to want time to explore President Trump’s new position before pushing too hard.
Even if South Koreans elect a progressive president who is more likely to engage with North Korea, relations could significantly thaw given Mr. Kim’s moves this year to cement the permanence of the division between North and South. gender is low. Although some are optimistic about the possibility of a Trump-Kim summit meeting resuming in 2025, it is unlikely to yield any major results. Much has changed in the four years since Mr. Trump left office, and Mr. Kim’s position has solidified, making him much less likely to offer any major meaningful concessions to the United States or South Korea.
—Markus Galauskas
On the surface, North Korea’s response to the political crisis has been limited to domestic media commentary and refrained from openly confronting South Korea, perhaps because Yun’s claims about North Korean infiltration are incorrect. Probably to prove that he is. At the same time, the political turmoil in South Korea provides the perfect conditions for North Korea to wage covert cognitive warfare, especially through social media and other means of communication. In particular, North Korea will likely take advantage of the move and increase domestic criticism of conservatives such as Yoon.
For North Korea, these measures are essentially an investment in the return of progressives to power, which North Korea could use to shift inter-Korean relations and the situation on the peninsula to its advantage. North Korea’s new official policy of recognizing South Korea as an “enemy” rather than a “unification partner” not only strengthens its military confrontational posture, but also uses hybrid warfare methods to put further pressure on South Korea, especially against North Korea. there were. against progressives. Therefore, for the time being, North Korea will be looking to see what the situation will be in South Korea, while at the same time ensuring that it has the upper hand in determining the direction of inter-Korean relations.
—Ryo Hyuga Yamaguchi
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Friday, September 6, 2024
What do you expect from Japan-Korea relations after Mr. Kishida?
new atlanticist
by
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will meet with South Korean President Yun Seok-yew in Seoul on September 6-7, in what will likely be the last summit meeting before Kishida steps down. Atlantic Council experts share insights on the future of Tokyo and Seoul.
Image: Demonstrators wave K-pop penlights and hold placards that say “Immediate arrest” during a rally calling for the arrest of impeached South Korean President Yoon Seok-yeol in downtown Seoul. Kim Jae-hwan/SOPA Image via Reuters Connect.
