The question of whether Russia will lose its two military bases in Syria after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime will not be answered immediately.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday that it was “premature” to discuss the issue. Russian media reported that rebels led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) had assured Moscow of the base’s security.
The facts seem to support this, but there is no confirmation from other sources. Russia operates two military bases in Syria. One is the Soviet naval base in Tartus in the Mediterranean Sea, and the other is the air base in Hmeimim, built in 2015. The base in Syria is Russia’s only military outpost outside the former Soviet bloc. and was important to the Kremlin’s operations in Africa and the Middle East.
“There is visible transport aircraft activity in Hmeimim, but not enough to talk about a full-scale evacuation,” said Gustav Gressel, a defense expert who previously worked at the European Council on Foreign Relations. said. He added that Russian ships are currently in the Mediterranean “for exercises” but not far from Tartus.
“Russia will find an agreement behind the scenes to maintain bases in the country,” Gressel told DW. “If it had been abandoned, certainly an evacuation would have started.”
Russia has softened its attitude towards HTS
Military historian Colonel Markus Reisner said the Russian naval base in Tartus is now “more strategically important” and “from there we can send troops to the Mediterranean.” Moscow’s air base in Hmeimim was needed to support the Assad regime against the rebels, “but that is no longer the case.”
For political scientist Mark Galeotti, author of “Putin’s War: From Chechnya to Ukraine,” both bases are “very important in terms of Russia’s activities in the Mediterranean and Africa.”
Galeotti said it was shocking that just recently, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov had called the group “terrorists,” but by the weekend, “they were being called ‘rebels.’ ” he said. After being removed from power, Moscow’s tone toward HTS “became more polite.”
What can Moscow offer HTS?
Russia “certainly hopes to reach some kind of agreement with HTS,” Galeotti said. Although HTS is supported by Turkey, “we don’t want to be a proxy for Turkey. We need some kind of alliance or relationship,” he said.
This is where Russia comes into play.
“The Russians are cynical and pragmatic enough to be there. This gives (HTS) a chance to diversify away from just relying on Ankara,” Galeotti said. He also pointed out that Russia not only has a military presence in Syria, but also a “certain economic position” and that Russia is Syria’s main trading partner.
Burju Ozcelik, a Middle East expert at the British think tank RUSI, was not convinced that the Syrian opposition would immediately comply with Moscow’s wishes.
“It is highly doubtful that HTS will rush to be seen as allying with (Russian President Vladimir) Putin or giving the green light to Russia’s long-term presence on Syria’s Mediterranean coast,” Ozchelik said. ” he said. “In particular, President Assad has been granted asylum on Russian territory.”
Ozchelik predicted that there would be long negotiations in which “regional actors such as Russia and Iran will seek to reposition their foreign policy interests vis-à-vis Syria.”
Where could Russian troops go instead of Syria?
If Russian troops have to withdraw from Syria, albeit in installments, where will they go?
“Russia has no good options,” Galeotti said. He said the Assad regime’s dependence on Syria is so high that there is no comparable country in the region.
Libya, where Russia maintains contacts with General Khalifa Haftar and where Russian mercenaries from the Wagner Group once fought, is one of the most frequently mentioned options. Western media reported Russia’s intention to establish a naval base in Libya.
Reisner said he suspects this is in Tobruk. Galeotti wondered if this would be possible quickly, as there was no prior infrastructure. The same was true of Sudan, with which Russia has been negotiating for years over a naval base in the Red Sea. “Wherever they go, Libya, Mali, Sudan, they will not be in the same position as they were in Syria.”
Little impact on the Ukraine war
In this connection, the following questions also arose. If Russia withdraws its troops from Syria, what does this mean for the war against Ukraine? Galeotti said there would be a “negligible impact” in this regard. He said the amount of troops Russia could transfer from Syria to the Ukraine front would be negligible.
Gressel took a similar view. “For Ukraine, there is limited good news (from Syria),” he said, adding that while Russia is waging war against Ukraine using all means possible, it has no ability or desire to open a second front. I explained that it wasn’t there.
This article was originally written in German.
