For almost a decade, it was Russian firepower that kept Bashar al-Assad in power.
That is, until the unusual events of the past 24 hours occurred.
Damascus fell, the Syrian president was overthrown, and reportedly flew to Moscow.
Russian news agencies and state television, citing Kremlin officials, reported that Russia granted asylum to Assad and his family “on humanitarian grounds.”
The Kremlin’s Syria plan will collapse in the most dramatic circumstances within days, and Moscow will be powerless to stop it.
Russia’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement that the Russian government is “following the dramatic events in Syria with extreme concern.”
The collapse of the Assad regime will deal a blow to Russia’s prestige.
By sending thousands of troops to reinforce President Assad in 2015, one of Russia’s key objectives was to assert its status as a global power.
This was President Vladimir Putin’s first major challenge to Western power and control outside of the former Soviet bloc.
And it seemed successful. In 2017, President Putin visited Russia’s Hmeimim air base in Syria and declared the mission complete.
Despite regular reports of civilian casualties in Russian airstrikes, the Russian Ministry of Defense does not feel confident enough to send international media to Syria to witness Russian military operations. Ta.
On one such trip, I remember one officer saying that Russia would be in Syria for a “long time.”
But this was more than just fame.
In return for military aid, Syrian authorities granted Russia a 49-year lease of the air base in Hmeimim and the naval base in Tartus.
Russia has secured an important foothold in the eastern Mediterranean. These bases became important hubs for transporting military contractors into and out of Africa.
A key question for Moscow is: What will happen to Russia’s bases?
The statement announcing Assad’s arrival in Moscow also mentioned that Russian officials were in contact with representatives of “Syrian armed opposition groups.”
The state TV anchor said rebel leaders had guaranteed the security of Russian military bases and diplomatic missions in Syrian territory.
Russia’s Foreign Ministry said the Syrian base was on “high alert” but insisted there was “no serious threat to the base at this time.”
Bashar al-Assad was Russia’s most loyal ally in the Middle East. The Kremlin had invested heavily in him. Russian authorities will have a hard time presenting his ouster as nothing more than a setback for Moscow.
Yet they are trying…and looking for a scapegoat.
On Sunday night, Russian state television’s flagship weekly news program appeared to take aim at the Syrian army, blaming it for not fighting back against the rebels.
“It was clear to everyone that the situation was becoming increasingly dramatic for the Syrian authorities,” anchor Evgeny Kiselev said.
“But in Aleppo, for example, positions were surrendered virtually without a fight. Even though[government forces]were better equipped and outnumbered the attackers many times over, fortified areas surrendered one after another. , and then it was blown up. This is a mystery!
Castor claimed that Russia had “always wanted reconciliation (between the different sides) in Syria.”
And his final point is this.
“Of course, we are not indifferent to what is happening in Syria. But our priority is Russia’s own security, that is, what is happening in the area of Special Military Operations (Russia’s war in Ukraine) .”
There is a clear message here for the Russian people.
Despite Russia pouring resources into keeping President Bashar al-Assad in power for nine years, Russians are being told they have more important things to worry about.
