When President Vladimir Putin took the reins of power in post-Soviet Russia in turmoil a quarter of a century ago, he immediately set about restoring Moscow’s status as a world power.
It took 15 years, but Russia declared its military intervention in the Syrian civil war as evidence of its resurgence as a force to be reckoned with on the international stage.
Moscow used that image to expand its influence throughout the Middle East and beyond as a counterweight to the West.
Now, the collapse of President Bashar al-Assad’s government, a key ally of Moscow, is dealing a severe blow to Russia’s great power ambitions.
Middle East expert Philip Smith said, “President Putin’s military actions in Syria were aimed at demonstrating that Russia is a great power and can exert influence abroad.” “Losing Syria is a huge blow to President Putin.”
Assad’s ouster would not only be a blow to Russia’s reputation, but would also likely represent a major strategic setback.
Syria is home to two major Russian military facilities: the air base in Hmeimim and the naval base in Tartus. The latter is Russia’s only warm-water naval base outside the former Soviet Union and provides Moscow with access to the Mediterranean Sea.
“Russia has used its bases in Syria to project its power into both the Eastern Mediterranean and the broader Middle East,” Smith said.
Assets that require maintenance
Russia’s military intervention in Syria in 2015 changed the course of the war. Moscow’s devastating air campaign against rebel positions helped the Syrian army regain some territory and keep Assad in power.
The Russian government’s Syria operation comes a year after it invaded Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula and supported separatist groups in eastern Ukraine.
Moscow has used its involvement in both Syria and Ukraine to promote itself as a great power capable of challenging the United States, NATO, and the West in general, expanding its global reach from the Mediterranean to Africa and Latin America.
Experts say Syria has become even more of an asset for Russia after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, but also poses challenges in maintaining military operations on two fronts.
That mission has become even more difficult as Russia’s military assets in Syria are expected to decline following the fall of the Assad regime.
Russia has already invested heavily in a major counterattack to regain territory southwest of Kursk lost to Ukraine, and is relying on North Korean military support. At the same time, it is trying to capture as much territory as possible in eastern Ukraine before peace talks take place.
Russian military facilities on the Mediterranean coast in western Syria may be overrun by extremists led by the US-designated terrorist organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its allies.
Aaron Zelin, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute, said Russia does not have any firepower at its disposal to protect its assets in Syria.
“It is important to remember that Russia now has to deal with a much larger war in Ukraine than when it first invaded Syria in 2015,” Zelin said.
“Russia also has assets fighting in sub-Saharan Africa. And unlike 10 years ago when Russia had the Wagner Group led by (the late Yevgeny) Prigozhin, Russia has the same level of No ability or ability. Now deal with this the same way.”
Zelin said the loss of the Tartus naval base in particular would be an “extreme loss for Russia.”
“This is the only warm-water port that Russia can use for naval operations and power projection,” he said. “Losing that would effectively lock Russia out of the core of the Middle East.”
Russia did not send ground troops to support Damascus, which fell to HTS and its allies on December 8. Russia has carried out dozens of airstrikes since the militants launched an offensive against Assad’s forces in late November, but Moscow’s limited intervention has done little to stop the Damascus offensive. Rebel advance.
Experts say Russia will pay a heavy price for its failure in Syria.
Hamidreza Azizi, a research fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Studies, said Assad’s fall is “a major blow to Russia’s claim to remain a world power in terms of maintaining military and political influence abroad.” ”.
From there, he said, actors in other regions such as Latin America and Africa “may start to reconsider their relationship and their dependence on Russia.”
