Russia’s Shadow War in Europe

After Ukraine fired British-made Storm Shadow missiles at military targets in Russia last month, President Putin responded by asserting his “right” to attack Britain and its Western allies. But the truth is that “the UK and its allies have been under constant Russian attack for years,” said Simon Tisdall in the Observer. Putin has used “sabotage, arson, deniable cyberattacks,” disinformation and influence operations to threaten Western countries over their support for Ukraine. His “shadow war” against NATO allies may have become more intense and dangerous, but it has long been established. Putin’s objective is to sow chaos, spread fear and division, and disrupt military production.

Russia’s “gray zone” war continues every day, Edward Lucas said in the Times. Last month, unidentified drones “noiseed” four US air force bases in the UK. Another ship followed HMS Queen Elizabeth as it approached Hamburg. In the Baltic Sea, which is fast becoming a geopolitical hotspot, two vital data cables were severed last month by a Chinese-flagged commercial ship carrying Russian sailors. Closer to home, British intelligence services suspect Russia to be behind recent London bombings, Guy Kelly told the Daily Telegraph. The same goes for the explosion at a weapons factory in Wales in April and the spate of arson attacks across Europe. A Croydon youth recently pleaded guilty to raiding a Ukrainian-linked business in east London in March in exchange for Russian money. “Every day, little by little, Russia is testing the patience of the West. The question now is whether we will do something about it.”

British authorities have been sounding the alarm in recent days. Labor Minister Pat McFadden has warned that Russia could “turn out the lights for millions of people” with a cyberattack. But the Russian operation appears to have been carefully calibrated to avoid provoking a collective response from NATO, said Mark Galeotti of The Spectator. Instead, the Kremlin is ratcheting up the pressure to see what can get away with it. What is important to remember is that President Putin truly believes that the “relentless Russophobic” West wants to dismantle Russia and is using Ukraine as a weapon in that fight. And it has certainly suffered as a result of the war and Western sanctions. One hawkish Russian said, “Are we going to collapse our economy and whine when we get hacked?” So what should we do? “We know Russia,” Baltic officials told me, “and they’ll keep up the pressure as long as they think it’s effective.” In other words, “keep calm and carry on.”