Less than four months after taking office, French Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s government was defeated in a no-confidence motion in parliament over a dispute over the social security budget.
On Wednesday night, 331 of France’s 577 left- and right-wing parliamentarians voted in France’s lower house of parliament to dismiss the EU’s former Brexit negotiator and his government.
Barnier, 73, was scheduled to formally submit his resignation to French President Emmanuel Macron on Thursday morning. The last time a prime minister resigned in response to a no-confidence motion was in 1962, when Michel Debré, who served under Charles de Gaulle, founding father of the Fifth Republic and president of France, resigned due to the Algerian crisis. resigned.
Barnier’s resignation not only plunges Paris into political turmoil for the second time this year, but also leaves Paris without a budget for 2025.
A statement from the Elysée Palace said President Macron was scheduled to address the nation on Thursday night on future developments.
What led to the vote of no confidence?
Members of parliament from France’s left-wing coalition, the New Popular Front (NFP), took part in the vote against Prime Minister Barnier’s latest austerity budget. Later, when Barnier tried to pass the budget through parliament without a vote, the far-right National Rally (RN) supported him.
His budget proposal includes 60 billion euros ($63.2 billion) worth of tax increases to tackle the country’s budget deficit and about 40 billion euros ($42.1 billion) worth of government spending cuts on social security and welfare. It was included.
France’s public deficit is equivalent to about 6.1% of gross domestic product. Mr Barnier had expressed his intention to bring this into line with European Union rules that require countries to keep their budget deficits below 3%.
“The choice we made was to protect the French people,” far-right RN leader Marine Le Pen told French broadcaster TF1 after the no-confidence vote on Wednesday. The RN wanted Mr Barnier’s budget to include provisions to increase the state pension and repeal cuts to health benefits, among other demands for budgetary concessions.
“The main person responsible for the current situation is Mr. Emmanuel Macron. The dissolution and censorship are the result of his policies and this serious rift that exists between him and the French people today,” she added.
Mathilde Pano, from the left-wing parliamentary group La France Insaumise (LFI), appeared on France’s BFM television on Monday and said: “This historic event is a strong signal. Whatever happens, “People can change the course of history.” . Macron must go now. ” Unyielding France has opposed Macron’s government ever since its pension reform, which raised the retirement age for its citizens.
Experts said the unity between France’s left and right over the issue shows that dissatisfaction with the current government is deepening.
“I think we were surprised that it (the vote of no confidence) passed,” Gethin Weber, a researcher at the German Marshall Fund’s Paris office, told Al Jazeera.
“We did not expect that the RN party would support what was coming from the left. But on the other hand, this meant that the political situation would gradually deteriorate to the point where this government would collapse and Macron would be forced to step down.” “I think it also says a lot about the strategy of these parties whose main ambition is to
What does this mean for Mr Macron?
Macron has been president of France since 2017, and his term ends in 2027, when the country’s next presidential election will be held. But some opposition figures, including Pano and RN adviser Philippe Olivier, are calling for his early resignation.
“There is no obligation or even expectation for him to resign. This is only requested/suggested by some in the opposition. France is a semi-presidential system and the government and the presidency are two separate institutions,” Britain said. Marta Lorimer, lecturer in political science at Cardiff University, told Al Jazeera.
Weber said Macron could resign early if he wanted, but that was highly unlikely.
“There is a pending lawsuit against Ms. Le Pen that is expected to be decided next spring. The very likely outcome of this lawsuit is that she will run for public office again, or for any political office. It also means that they may not be allowed. So President Macron intends to use this to his advantage,” she added.
Le Pen is currently on trial along with other party members on charges of embezzling EU funds, an allegation she denies.
Meanwhile, pressure is mounting on the Elysée Palace as the public waits to see how Macron will form the next government.
Who will Macron appoint as prime minister now?
At the moment it is very difficult to say.
The French president has already been criticized for his choice of prime minister, particularly from the NFP, which won the most votes in July’s snap general election. After a coalition of centrist and left-wing parties attempted to block the right-wing party by canceling the selection of certain candidates in the second round, the party received the most votes in the first round but lost in the second round. Mr. Barnier was chosen to appease the right.
“In short,[Macron]prefers an agreement with the ultra-liberal right and far right to an agreement with the left in order to continue his ultra-liberal policies, despite the clear rejection of the majority of the French people.” “That’s it,” said Jonathan McClar. the civil society activist and member of the French Communist Party told Al Jazeera.
“So this censure motion will put an end to an illegitimate government that most people had no stake in. That’s good for our democracy,” he added.
Lorimer said whoever Macron chooses next will be difficult to secure a stable majority.
“He could form another minority government and have some form of non-belligerency pact. For example, if he appoints someone from the left, the centrists and the right agree not to vote on a no-confidence vote. “We’re going to have to get it,” she said.
“He could consider the profile of the technocrat and appoint someone with fairly limited powers, but also someone who could at least get France to vote on the 2025 budget bill. He could once again try to facilitate the creation of a broad coalition of three parties: the centre, the centre-right and the centre-left, but this would first require splitting the left. added Lorimer.
Weber believes that Macron will basically pass France’s interim budget and appoint a caretaker government in the short term to prevent the country from sliding into economic crisis.
What does this mean for Ms. Le Pen?
France’s right-wing leader Le Pen, whose RN party received the most votes in the first round and was initially expected to win a snap election in July, has announced that she will become the country’s president in 2027. I’m eager.
Some analysts say the party’s vote against Barnier could pose a risk to his presidential ambitions, as the vote has plunged France into political turmoil.
“Mr. Le Pen is now in full ‘damage control’ mode,” Lorimer said.
“She recognizes that voting in favor of the no-confidence motion could plunge France into serious political and economic turmoil, going against the ‘respect’ strategy she has been pursuing. ” Lorimer said.
“This is why her reaction to the fall of Barnier’s government seems almost contrite. The party’s policy is that ‘we do not rejoice in overthrowing the government, but we have no choice but to do so because there are alternatives.’ “It could have been worse,” Lorimer said.
“We voted to censure the government to protect the French people from this budget,” Le Pen told French news network TF1 on Wednesday night.
“We have been constructive from the start and will be working with the next Prime Minister who will be asked to propose a new budget. What we want is for voters to be respected and their demands to be heard. .”
How have people in France reacted?
Barbara d’Arbois*, a resident of Avignon in southeastern France, told Al Jazeera that she wondered if her country had been hit by “la catastrophe”.
But France is used to such downturns, she added. “Look at our football team. They can be world champions and then four years later be pretty bad. We expect to have a new prime minister soon…if the government… If it falls again, I would bet on enacting Article 16.”
Article 16 of the French Constitution gives the president exceptional decision-making powers when French institutions or territory are threatened.
Mahler said the French people “seem to be more exhausted by President Macron and his ultra-liberal and increasingly right-leaning policies than by the current temporary instability.” They generally expect some of his policies to change as a direct result of this no-confidence vote.
In France, Macron has become a leader, as demonstrated by the yellow vest movement in 2018 (protests against fuel tax hikes) and the superannuation movement in 2023 (protests against Macron’s pension reforms and plans to raise the retirement age from 62). He pointed out that there was an outpouring of dissatisfaction with the government’s policies. up to 64), the 2023 protests against police violence, the 2024 farmers’ protests (demonstrations demanding better wages and protection from foreign competition), the feminist movement, and most recently Palestine. protests.
“Given this unprecedented situation, I think there is a mixture of relief, hope and concern,” he said.
“A bailout is inevitable, as the proposed budget (and the one that sparked the censure motion) is a further deepening of Macron’s disastrous policies. There is hope because we will finally be able to implement policy changes.”
What does this mean for Europe?
The political unrest in France comes as the country prepares for the inauguration of President Donald Trump in the United States. President Trump is also scheduled to visit the French capital over the weekend to prepare for the reopening of Notre Dame Cathedral.
Shari Malhotra, deputy director and European researcher at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi, said that during Trump’s term in office, European He said that the country is in a dangerous period of lacking leadership.
“The continent is still at war (with Russia and Ukraine), but instead of projecting solidarity externally, major European member states such as France and Germany are facing political crises at home,” she said. told Al Jazeera.
“France is the second largest economy in the eurozone and the EU’s main military power, and President Macron is the foremost advocate of European integration, including strengthening European defense. Even if Mr. Macron appoints a new prime minister, Even so, France’s political instability is likely to continue, and there remains an impasse over decision-making,” she continued.
“In Brussels, a new European Commission is just taking shape amidst a surge of far-right forces. But the unfortunate push and pull of domestic politics means that the French and German engines have no right to play against broader European stability and security. It means less bandwidth to engage.”
