Photo credit: Reuters
The rebel offensive is targeting areas around Aleppo and advancing into the suburbs. A successful breakthrough by the rebels could weaken Assad’s grip on the crisis-hit country and spark renewed violent urban fighting.
The actors behind the attack
The main force leading the assault is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). HTS, which was once affiliated with the terrorist group Al Qaeda, has rebranded itself over the years, saying it focuses on governance and military strategy in rebel-held areas. The United States and United Nations continue to list HTS as a terrorist organization, but its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Golani, has sought to distance the group from its extremist roots.
Photo credit: Reuters
HTS transformation includes limited support for religious minorities as well as efforts to promote civilian governance in HTS-controlled areas. Despite these changes, the group maintains a controversial reputation and is accused of harboring extremist elements and condoning extremist activity within its territory.
HTS is joined by several Turkish-backed factions and operates under the umbrella of the Syrian National Army. These groups have long had a complicated relationship, often fighting between them despite their common opposition to Assad.
Objectives of the rebel offensive
In a video statement announcing the operation, rebel commander Lt. Col. Hassan Abdulghani said the operation was a defense necessity.
“This operation is not an option in order to push back against attacks from our people. We have a duty to protect our people and their land,” he said, according to the New York Times. “It has become clear to all that regime militias and their allies, including Iranian mercenaries, have declared war against the Syrian people.”
The rebels’ immediate goals include halting airstrikes on civilian areas, retaking territory and cutting off vital supply routes to government forces. Their advance so far has been rapid, capturing several villages, strategic highway interchanges and military bases in Aleppo province.
Assad regime’s response
Syrian state media reported heavy resistance by government forces and claimed losses to rebel fighters. The Syrian army, with Russian air support, has launched heavy airstrikes on rebel-held areas, including the cities of Idlib and Atareb. Civilian casualties are rising, with rescue groups such as the White Helmets reporting dozens of deaths.
Iran, a key ally of President Assad, has also suffered losses in the attack. Among the victims was a senior commander in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps.
The Assad family, a Shiite offshoot, has long relied on an alliance with Iran to maintain its hold on power. This alliance has been particularly useful since 2011, when President Assad first faced an anti-government uprising.
After Syria descended into chaos in 2011, Iran is accused of providing around 80,000 combat personnel to Assad’s forces, while Russia provided air support.
regional dynamics
The timing of the attack comes at a time when Iran and its proxies, including Hamas and Hezbollah, are engaged in conflicts in other regions. Israel’s military operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza are straining its resources. Additionally, Russia’s focus on the war in Ukraine limits its ability to provide large-scale reinforcements to Syria.
Photo credit: Reuters
Syria’s main country, Turkey, supports some of the rebel groups involved in the attack. Israel continues to carry out airstrikes against Iranian-linked targets in Syria to disrupt arms shipments to Hezbollah. This creates an unstable mix of overlapping conflicts.
The renewed fighting is having a devastating impact on Syrian civilians, especially in rebel-held areas. The International Rescue Committee estimates that nearly 7,000 families have recently been evacuated.
Around 4 million people live in northwest Syria, most of whom have been forced to flee multiple times during the conflict. Many live in overcrowded camps with limited access to food, water and medical care. A resurgence of violence threatens to worsen the situation and trigger a new wave of mass displacement.
Impact on the Assad regime
His regime controls about 70 percent of Syria’s territory, but much of this control relies on support from outside allies such as Russia and Iran.
Moreover, the attack risks reigniting broader conflict within Syria. Although largely defeated, Islamic State remains active in the region through sleeper cells. Weakening government control could create an opening for these extremist groups to reunite and expand their activities.
