Five Democratic Assumptions Shattered in the 2024 Election: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online edition of From the Politics Desk, our evening newsletter that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the NBC News political team from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

In today’s issue, senior political reporter Alex Seitz-Wald unpacks long-standing Democratic truisms thrown into question by the 2024 election results. Additionally, Special Counsel Jack Smith has moved to dismiss all federal charges against Donald Trump in the election interference and classified documents case.

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5 Democratic Assumptions Shattered in the 2024 Election

Written by Alex Seitz-Wald

Democrats are keen to draw tactical lessons from their second loss to Donald Trump, but they have so far lost ground to basic assumptions about the broader political climate that have guided their strategy. There is a reluctance to reconsider parts of the

The party has been slow to update its myths about Trump-era political realignment, and many Democrats continue to rely on truisms that may no longer be true.

The final votes are still being counted, and it will be some time before the full details of the election become clear. But exit polls and results in key regions across the country are already revealing new realities that Democrats will need to adapt to as they rebuild for the future.

Here are five of the party’s core assumptions called into question by the 2024 election results.

1. Higher turnout is better for Democrats: Democrats have long taken for granted the simple truism that the more people vote, the better for Democrats. That may have been the case in the past – though it’s unclear – but it’s reassuring for a party aligned with democracy.

But in the Trump era, Democrats have become the party of more reliable voters (college-educated, high-income, older voters), while Republicans have become the party of more reliable voters (non-college-educated, blue-collar voters). They are often in a position to benefit. Voters of color are mostly apathetic about politics, but they like Trump.

This dynamic explains why Democrats have performed well in recent midterms, off-year elections and special elections, and why polls have consistently underestimated President Trump’s support. Low turnout in non-presidential elections often favors the party with the most reliable voters, the party that until recently was dominated by Republicans.

2. The Democratic Party is the Party of the Working Class: For more than a century, the Democratic Party has viewed itself as the party of workers and the Republican Party as the party of the bosses. The Democratic Party has strong ties to labor unions and has supported populist economic politics such as welfare programs and higher taxes on the wealthy.

In 2024, Democrats lost the working class on the two most common measures: income and education. According to NBC News exit polls, Trump won 56% to 42% of voters without a college degree, but narrowly won voters with annual household incomes of $30,000 to $100,000. Kamala Harris won voters who earn more than $200,000 a year.

This is a reversal from the previous election. Although Hillary Clinton lost to Trump in the 2016 election, she still won low-income voters by a double-digit margin and continued to close the educational attainment gap, according to NBC News exit polls. Mr. Obama easily won over non-college voters in 2012. .

3. Trump can’t expand his base: This is one reason why some Democrats saw Trump as a winner, especially after his 2020 loss. But in his third bid for the White House, Trump expanded his base of support to major cities, Native American reservations, and heavily Latino communities.

He gained ground in battleground cities such as Philadelphia and Detroit, while also improving in notoriously liberal areas such as Boston, San Francisco, Los Angeles County, and Chicago’s Cook County. And he has regained ground in wealthy suburban areas that had drifted away from Republicans in recent years, such as Loudoun County, Virginia.

4. Latinos and immigrants will vote against restrictive immigration policies: Democrats will base their support for Latinos and immigration policy on this implicitly accepted premise. are.

But according to NBC News exit polls, Trump had the best performance ever for a Republican presidential candidate among Latinos, winning Latino men outright and Asian Americans and people from Dearborn, Michigan. It gained support among immigrant communities as far away as Lawrence, Massachusetts.

Mr. Trump almost overwhelmingly wins Texas’ heavily Latino counties along the border with Mexico, some of which have voted Democratic for generations. And for the past 10 years, the only district in Manhattan contested by Republican presidential candidates is an apartment complex inhabited primarily by Chinese immigrants.

5. The Electoral College is biased against Democrats: Until this month, many Democrats believed that the Electoral College was structurally biased against Democrats, as both Republicans lost the popular vote to win the 21st century president. He concluded that the situation was biased against him.

This idea has some merit, since large blue states like California and New York are less represented than smaller red states like Wyoming. But as Ms. Harris’ performance deteriorated in these Democratic strongholds, Mr. Trump won both the Electoral College and the popular vote this year.

Jack Smith files for dismissal of all federal charges against Trump

Written by Ryan J. Reilly and Ken Dilanian

Special Counsel Jack Smith on Monday dropped all federal charges against President-elect Donald Trump for mishandling classified documents and attempting to overturn the 2020 presidential election ahead of the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol. filed a complaint. .

Hours later, U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan granted Smith’s motion to dismiss the Jan. 6-related charges, alleging that Trump illegally conspired to overturn his 2020 loss to President Joe Biden. The lawsuit that was alleged to have been committed has been officially concluded.

Trump was indicted in federal court in Miami in June 2023 on 37 felonies related to his mishandling of classified documents taken from the White House to his Florida home. These included knowingly retaining national defense information, making false statements, and conspiracy to obstruct justice. A Florida judge dismissed the case, but Smith’s office was seeking an appeal.

In August 2023, Trump was separately charged with four felonies for attempting to overturn the results of the 2020 election: conspiracy to commit fraud against the United States, conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding, obstructing and attempting to obstruct an official proceeding, and conspiracy against rights. was indicted.

President Trump claims the prosecution was politically motivated. He has never publicly acknowledged that the election claims were in fact false and has pleaded not guilty in both federal cases.

The federal indictment of President Trump was an unprecedented event in American history. It was the first indictment in history of a president illegally clinging to power, mishandling classified information and attempting to obstruct a federal investigation.

Their dismissal is also a historic moment. Fifty years after lawmakers from both parties forced Richard Nixon to resign from office following allegations of criminal conduct while in office, half of American voters chose to restore Trump to office.

Mr. Trump’s election means that the Justice Department’s long-standing position that sitting presidents cannot be charged with crimes will continue to apply even after he takes office on January 20th.

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That’s all from the political desk. If you have any feedback, love it or hate it, email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com.

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