In 2020, Justin Scheck and I published Blood and Oil: Mohammed Bin Salman’s Brutal Quest for World Power (Hachette). This next chapter examines why the last four years of the Crown Prince’s reign have been so markedly different from the first five, and what this means for the future of the Crown Prince and Saudi Arabia. The image was impressive. US President Joe Biden greets Mohammed bin Salman with a fist bump at the entrance to Al Salam Royal Palace in Jeddah. It was July 2022, and just two years earlier, Biden had vowed to make Saudi Arabia a “pariah” over the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. However, with oil prices soaring, Japan can no longer afford to make an enemy of MBS.
For the crown prince, the diplomatic reset could not have come at a better time. The Ukraine war, which has led to soaring oil prices, has placed Saudi Arabia at the center of a rapidly changing world order, giving it the influence it needs to engage the world and demonstrate its strategic patience. gave it to him. Mr. Biden asked MBS to ease oil prices, but he refused. American diplomats were shocked, but MBS needed the oil revenue to keep flowing.
MBS’s rise to power was marked by lavish spending, bold cultural reforms, and a devastating war in Yemen. The brash young prince has shaken Saudi Arabia to its core. But his 2022 meeting with Biden showed that MBS is increasingly aligned with Biden’s position on the world stage, albeit equally ambitious. Reforms that once made headlines, such as women driving, mixed-gender public spaces, and entertainment events, are now the new normal. New industries are taking root across the country and an entirely new megacity, NEOM, is under construction. MBS has played the role of peacemaker in the Middle East and has forged even closer ties with Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s intelligence agency leaked a detailed account of Khashoggi’s murder.
This old and evolved MBS could be further emboldened by impending changes in Washington. During President Donald Trump’s first term, the crown prince maintained close ties with the White House. With the return of President Trump, MBS’s position on the international stage will be solidified. The development of Mr. Trump and his inner circle, once seen as a risky bet against an unconventional president, has proven prescient.
To understand how MBS has developed his leadership style, look at both the aftermath of Khashoggi’s murder and the social and economic changes he is bringing to Saudi Arabia through his 2030 Vision. Worth considering.
MBS took “full responsibility” for the 2018 murder inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, but he also denied ordering it. Given the gruesome details that were revealed, he had little choice but to pivot inward and focus on creating a new kind of Saudi Arabia. For this purpose, MBS needed funds. He took the controversial view that the country’s future depends largely on whether oil can be monetized today before demand begins to decline. The 2019 IPO of Saudi Aramco, considered the crown jewel of the country’s energy industry, was one way to achieve this goal. Although the stock sale fell short of its initial valuation target of $2 trillion, the process still raised $25.6 billion, making it the largest IPO in history at the time.
MBS is using some of the funds to rebrand Saudi Arabia as a leading destination for international travelers. New hotels are opening or being built along the coast in hopes of drawing millions of tourists to Saudi Arabia from Southeast Asia and the Gulf. From the F1 race in Jeddah to MDLBeast Soundstorm, a music festival that attracts hundreds of thousands of attendees, Saudi Arabia is rebranding itself as a leading destination. The reconstruction also extends to a gigantic 400-meter-tall cubic structure under construction in Riyadh. The structure will be one of the largest in the world, containing 100,000 residential units, 9,000 hotel rooms, 80 entertainment and cultural facilities, and 1.4 million square feet of office space.
For many Saudis, especially young people who make up 70% of the population, these changes mean unprecedented opportunities. A booming entertainment and tourism sector is creating thousands of jobs, and young Saudis are embracing new freedoms in music, art and social interaction. The ancient city of AlUla, home to the UNESCO World Heritage Site Hegra, is at the heart of Saudi Arabia’s tourism promotion. The Winter at Tantra Festival, which began in 2018, brings international artists and tourists to the region to showcase Saudi Arabia’s pre-Islamic history and natural beauty. In 2022, Saudi Arabia will introduce a new visa system, making it easier for tourists from 49 countries to visit.
NEOM, a $500 billion megacity project announced to skepticism in 2017, is taking shape through the sheer force of will of MBS alone. Although this was not the project the market wanted, in his eyes it is an important development for the country’s future. Located in Saudi Arabia’s northwest corner, a largely undeveloped region close to Jordan, Egypt and Israel, MBS is betting that by evoking the megacities of the future, Saudi Arabia can ensure its relevance for decades to come. .
Steel is being transported from around the world and construction is underway on “The Line,” a 170-kilometre linear city within the NEOM project. This design embodies MBS’s development approach. This project seems impossible and probably unfeasible, but it is happening nonetheless. There were setbacks, delays and budget cuts. Some targets have been significantly reduced. NEOM’s CEO was also replaced earlier this month. But this incredibly ambitious project continues to move forward nonetheless.
The new challenge is finding enough funds to complete so many huge projects and make the Saudi economy sustainable. The country is on a mission to cut costs and improve efficiency, including delaying payments to some large vendors to preserve cash. No matter how quickly Saudi Arabia monetizes its oil, other countries need to believe the story and invest. That is not happening fast enough and remains an existential risk to the MBS project over the next six years. MBS is betting big on uncertainty. If he builds it, will anyone come?
strategic thinking
At the heart of all the biggest efforts is the country’s Sovereign Public Investment Fund, which under MBS’s leadership has become one of the world’s most active financial players. By 2022, its assets under management will increase to more than $600 billion, and by 2030, it is expected to reach $2 trillion. PIF’s investments range from Silicon Valley startups to Premier League soccer clubs. In 2021, it acquired the soccer team Newcastle United. The 2022 launch of LIV Golf, a PIF-backed challenger to the established PGA Tour, reflects PIF’s standard of being big, bold and unafraid to ruffle feathers in pursuit of Saudi Arabia’s interests. It exemplified this approach.
While critics have called these investments “sportswashing” (using sports to improve Saudi Arabia’s international image and distract from ongoing human rights issues), MBS believes these investments are more We see it as part of a broader strategy. The bid to host the 2034 FIFA World Cup and the 2030 World Expo, jointly submitted with Egypt, is not just about restoring the country’s image. These are calculated moves to position Saudi Arabia as a global entertainment and sports capital.
Another powerful symbol of Saudi economic influence is the annual Future Investment Initiative (FII) forum, dubbed the “Davos of the Desert.” Many Western organizations initially boycotted the conference in the wake of Khashoggi’s murder. But in October 2024, the forum will attract its largest ever audience, with global CEOs, technology leaders and politicians giving PIF and MBS advisors access to once-in-a-generation funding. They gathered in hopes of persuading them to do so. Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al Jadaan said: “We are very excited and satisfied with what we have achieved with Saudi Vision 2030, but we are not resting on our laurels.” “Together we are making sure we are doing the right thing.”
The FII indicates that MBS has learned to wield Saudi Arabia’s economic and cultural influence more strategically instead of directly confronting it. In the face of international criticism, Saudi Arabia has increasingly applied pressure through business deals and visa policies rather than public statements.
Its influence also affects geopolitics. At a summit in AlUla in January 2021, MBS ended a rift between several Gulf states and Qatar over Qatar’s foreign policy and the media’s role in promoting regional differences. The crown prince also symbolically hugged the emir of Qatar in a public gesture of reconciliation. Although MBS’s longtime partner, Mohammed bin Zayed of the United Arab Emirates, appeared to have a hard time accepting the change, the move stabilized the region and put Saudi Arabia on the global map. We were able to show a more united Gulf front on stage.
More notably, MBS has begun back-channel negotiations with Iran, Saudi Arabia’s long-time nemesis. The talks, mediated by Iraq and Oman, are a dramatic departure from MBS’s confrontational stance early in his administration, particularly in Yemen, where a Saudi-led coalition has been fighting Iranian-backed Houthi rebels since 2015. This marked a major shift.
saudi first
Most importantly, none of these efforts were done in tandem with the United States. Saudi foreign policy is now decidedly “Saudi First.” And domestically, MBS maintains strong power. Rivals within the royal family have been on the sidelines or under house arrest for what seems like a lifetime. Activists and critics continue to face harsh punishment, but the brazen impunity that characterized the Khashoggi case has diminished. The release of women’s rights activist Loujain al-Hathloul in February 2021 was internationally celebrated, but came with strict conditions, including a travel ban.
While human rights groups continue to criticize Saudi Arabia’s treatment of dissidents and lack of political freedoms, the world that tried to isolate MBS now has no choice but to get involved. The era of MBS has begun. This is a time when Saudi Arabia’s influence extends far beyond the oil market. From Silicon Valley boardrooms to Premier League stadiums and games, from renewable energy projects to artificial intelligence research, Saudi Arabia’s footprint in the global economy is becoming increasingly visible.
As Saudi Arabia prepares to host Expo 2030 and the World Cup in 2034, it is clear that MBS has transformed the country. His model of authoritarian modernization, which combined social reform with strict political control, influenced other leaders in the region and beyond. Whether this new paradigm proves sustainable remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: the impact of Saudi Arabia’s transformation under MBS will continue to shape Saudi Arabia’s borders for decades to come. It means that it will resonate far beyond.
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)
