The accusations are in full swing as Democrats ponder the causes of their election defeat. Following in the footsteps of Mark Lilla’s 2016 op-ed that launched the genre, many have settled on denouncing “wokeness.” In short, the Democratic Party lost because it played “identity politics.” In other words, it took into account the special concerns of people who drift through the world without a genuine human identity other than heterosexual white men. Or it may appear to do so because of its proximity to interest groups.
These statements are even more frustrating now that we are facing authoritarian rule. Authoritarian strategy calls for inciting counter-revolutions to revolutions that have never existed before. Their argument is that society’s most marginalized people have somehow risen to power, and that “true citizens” must take it back. To assess that the cause of the Democratic Party’s failures is giving too much power to immigrants and transgender people, we need to accept this fiction.
These election breakdowns and deletions are full of data on how Kamala Harris has performed with different groups of voters, and it’s not ironic that identity-based categories no longer have electoral meaning. This is to declare. And indeed, trying to parse election results through the usual lenses of race, gender, education, and age has little explanatory power. So perhaps those who scold Democrats for their alleged obsession with minority groups should consider softening it by looking at everything through that lens. Or at least what Donald Trump calls us “broligarchies” in his remarks about “class realignment.”
Indeed, we should be wary of accepting any single explanation for the actions, or inactions, of millions of Americans. Something as complex as elections cannot be summarized by any unified grand theory. But any effort to understand what happened must at least be grounded in what actually happened. So let’s take a look at it.
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First, we must abandon the fiction that this is a major shift in American political preferences. Counting is proceeding at a rapid pace, but as of this writing, Harris has 48.5% of the vote, down from 50% for Trump, out of more than 153 million votes cast. That’s a difference of 2.5 million votes. Dictator Donny’s claimed mandate does not authorize him to appoint a bandit cabinet and rebuild the federal government. However, it is worth considering that Mr. Trump received more votes than Ms. Harris in both popularity and electoral college.
Opinion polls show that occupying the world based on reality, such as correctly assessing inflation rates, crime rates, and border crossings, is a fairly reliable indicator of whether people intend to vote for Harris or Trump. It turned out to be a good indicator. So you could probably say, “That’s disinformation, idiot.”
Furthermore, we are at a moment of global rejection of established political parties on the left and right. Since the pandemic began, people have started to look at what their lives are like right now and say, “I want something different.”
In the United States, voters are understandably angry about the current situation. Because a handful of billionaires and corporations are hoarding the wealth generated by the rest of the population and buying politicians and Supreme Court judges to do what they want. Some may lament that trust in institutions is at an all-time low, but when democracies aren’t paying rent, much less providing health care, “defending democracy” isn’t that convincing. We should rather recognize that people are wise enough to recognize the fact that it is not just a sales pitch. or higher education.
So perhaps the explanation for the election is “change, idiot.”
Importantly, Harris failed primarily because 2020 Joe Biden voters did not show up. According to current tallies, Trump increased his total vote count by about 2.5 million votes, while Harris received 7 million fewer votes than Biden in 2020. Overall, voters shifted inward rather than to the right. To explain what happened, we need to explain why the people who delivered Democratic victories in 2020 missed out on them this time.
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Through weekly focus groups and frequent surveys of swing and dissatisfied Democratic voters in battleground states over the past two years, three things have surfaced time and time again. First, voters’ strong memory is that they received a check from President Trump, a payment that he withheld in order to sign off on the transfer. Meanwhile, checks without Biden’s signature were not registered, likely because Biden prioritized following tradition over understanding that there is no bigger message than a personal check. Mr. Trump’s checks and the price increases that occurred during Mr. Biden’s tenure were concrete memories that even the seemingly abstract threat of the future could not dispel.
The last few months have been spent touting his signature bill as an “inflation control law” and committing the cardinal sin of getting his message across. First, the Democratic Party repeatedly repeats the dreaded “eye word” to voters. Second, many voters do not understand that the inflation rate is a rate of change, and believe that lowering the inflation rate should lead to lower prices, which of course was not the case in most cases. In addition to this, attempts to tout achievements and make “Bidenomics” a reality only led to setbacks, and the Democratic Party appeared to be at a loss for talks. Hearing that “the economy is doing well” when that’s not actually the case creates a disconnect at best, and can make it sound like voters are blaming themselves for their own problems.
Second, voters who were favorable to President Trump or tolerated his absence were, and still are, deep in what I call the “trust chasm.” In other words, they are uncomfortable with the right-wing Project 2025 agenda, but dismiss it as unlikely to materialize. An August survey conducted by Research Collaborative with Data for Progress found that 58% of Democratic voters believe Republicans will implement the Project 2025 agenda if they win power, and 28% of them said they would try but fail; 14% expect not to do so. Even try it. In contrast, 21% of Republican voters recognize that the Project 2025 agenda will be enacted, 28% say the plan will not be successful, and a majority (51%) believe that the Republican Party will implement the agenda. I was thinking not to release it.
This distrust continues to this day. A post-election study conducted by the Research Collaborative in collaboration with Hart Research finds whether President Trump is more or less likely to legally deport millions of immigrants, including those in his home country. Harris voters were split 87/13 on this issue, while Trump voters were split 60/40 on this issue. Only 18% of Harris voters think a national abortion ban is unlikely, compared to 69% of Trump voters. In fact, when you look at what is likely to happen under Trump and its consequences, Harris and Trump voters’ expectations are almost exactly the opposite. In other words, the difference between these voters cannot be summed up as a desire for different governing policies, but rather a belief in whether policies that the majority dislike will come to fruition.
Third, these conflicted voters believed that Democrats were unable or unwilling to fight for them. Fair or not, “all of this happened on the Democratic Party’s watch” — by “this” we mean the defeat of Roe v. Wade, the passage of anti-voter legislation, and the economic struggles faced by the Democratic Party. was the cry of conflicted voters. Or, as they often told us, “They told me to come out in 2020 to protect us from MAGA, which I did, and nothing happened.” ” Why would I believe the same thing again? ”
That is, after the election, 51 percent of voters said that rather than thinking that the Democratic Party had protected democracy or was serious about democracy, 51 percent of voters said, “Democrats are talking about protecting democracy in order to get elected. “But they are not doing anything meaningful to protect democracy.” try.
“Democrats won’t fight for us” — not a synonym, nor support for open borders or Black Lives Matter marches — is a phrase echoed by conflicted voters over and over again in hundreds of focus groups. He also volunteered as Top Beef. Sure, you can get them to complain about “cultural issues,” and it’s true that Republicans have spent a ton of money pushing these issues to the forefront. But ironically, the fact that Democrats have run away and capitulated so quickly on these issues, rather than from values, has only deepened voters’ sense of their own weakness. Full-fat and low-calorie versions of the same topic are offered, swing voters choose the former, and disaffected surge voters stay home.
What Democrats must consider is that, outside of hardline partisans, most voters think most politicians lie most of the time. After the election, 72% of voters said Republican leaders sometimes or always lie, and 70% said the same about Democratic leaders. This is highly beneficial to the Republican Party, as passionate voters are constantly saying, “Trump just says it, he doesn’t mean it.” And this is extremely destructive for Democrats because voters don’t believe their messages about past accomplishments, future plans, and warnings of MAGA dictatorship.
What people believe about the Democratic Party is not created by what Democrats say. That’s why denying right-wing and centrist criticism of things Harris didn’t actually say during the 2024 campaign and likely wouldn’t have implemented as policies just doesn’t work. And staying silent about the issues of race, gender, and national origin that Republicans keep bringing up won’t make them go away. It ensures that every voter hears the hate propaganda of the opposition.
The idea that voters have come to like Mr. Trump’s proposals and that Ms. Harris is promoting far-left policies is indefensible. Team Harris campaigned with Liz Cheney, showcasing the patriotism of the Glock-owning “deadliest military man” and promising to enact Republican-authored border legislation.
Additionally, progressive voting efforts performed significantly better than Democrats, with voters across the country championing abortion protections, raising the minimum wage, paid family care time, and strengthening the right to unionize. did. Even in Florida, where the abortion amendment failed to pass the required 60% threshold, 14% more Floridians voted yes than voted for Harris.
If voters are going to have some say in who governs them in two years and four years from now, then the current massive voter purges and social media-based lies, let alone even more severe anti-democratic policies in the future. Given the promise that action will be taken, such a proposition should not be assumed – overall the electoral pattern suggests that Republicans may be defeated.
But Democrats say they are fighting for the lives and livelihoods of ordinary people and against the billionaires, corporations, and MAGA Republicans bent on doing them harm. Until we show, rather than show, we cannot hope to ward off the twin temptations of authoritarianism that are rooted in the siren song. The blaming and cynicism of some “others” is rooted in the assessment that “both sides” rely on money rather than more. In other words, “It’s neoliberalism, idiot.”
Anat Shenker Osorio is a political strategist and progressive campaign communications researcher.
