If the Kremlin had hoped to instill fear in Western adversaries by lowering the bar for using nuclear weapons, it may have been disappointed Wednesday.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s expanded nuclear doctrine appeared to be a thinly veiled threat to the United States and its allies over increased support for Ukraine.
The updated document includes changes that would allow Moscow to launch a nuclear attack if attacked by a non-nuclear state, such as Ukraine, backed by a nuclear-armed state such as the United States. It was officially approved on the same day that Kiev carried out its first nuclear attack. The United States supplies long-range ATACMS missiles to Russia.
However, while it is by no means impossible that Putin will use devastating nuclear weapons in a war with Ukraine, world leaders and analysts alike agree that this change could be a new way to deter the West. He expressed doubts that it meant more than a stronger effort.
Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin told NBC News there is no indication that the Russian government intends to use nuclear weapons any time soon.
Marking the 1,000th day since the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of the neighboring country, he said: “We have not seen any change in their strategic military posture and we will continue to be vigilant in this regard.”
“He’s been brandishing a nuclear saber quite a bit, which is dangerous behavior,” Austin said of Putin.
Kiev’s allies in Europe, like Washington, remained publicly unmoved.
“Irresponsible comments from Russia…will not deter us from supporting Ukraine,” British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said at a press conference in Brazil on Tuesday. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrault dismissed Putin’s decision as “rhetorical rhetoric”, adding: “We are not threatened.” European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell also condemned Putin’s threat of nuclear escalation, calling it “totally irresponsible.”
The Kremlin appears to be keen to address the rising tensions.
Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told state news agency TASS on Wednesday that a special hotline set up to defuse the crisis between the Kremlin and the White House is currently not in use.
But behind these statements from Western officials, the change in Russia’s nuclear doctrine is less about a dramatic change in Russia’s plans and more about a powerful arsenal but weakened by repeated use. There is a sense that it is a propaganda tool, experts told NBC News.
“Russia’s move will go hand-in-hand with a campaign by supporters in the West to portray any loosening of restrictions on ATACMS attacks on Russia as a dangerous escalation,” said a senior official at Chatham House Russia, a London-based think tank. said Kia Giles, Consulting Fellow. and the Eurasian Program.
“With little Russia can do in a practical response, it has turned to written and threatening language to undermine the outgoing Biden administration’s resolve. That’s understandable. Direct and indirect nuclear threats , has been very effective in preventing Biden from providing full support to Ukraine so far, so it would be a shame for Russia if this move doesn’t make a difference,” Giles told NBC News. Ta.
The Biden administration has reversed its policy of allowing Kiev to use long-range U.S. weapons for limited offensive purposes inside Russia, after months of pleas from Ukraine and warnings of dire consequences from Russia.
