How China’s rising emissions will change global climate politics

For many years, wealthy regions such as the United States and Europe have historically held the greatest responsibility for global warming and have taken the lead in the task of halting it.

China’s extraordinary rise is upending that dynamic.

Over the past three decades, China has built more than 1,000 coal-fired power plants as its economy has grown more than 40 times. The country has become the world’s largest annual greenhouse gas emitter.

The United States continues to pump more global warming pollution into the air than it has since the 19th century. One reason is that the country has been burning coal, oil, and natural gas for a long time. However, China is rapidly catching up.

Last year, China overtook Europe for the first time to become the second-largest emitter in history, according to an analysis published Tuesday by climate research site Carbon Brief.

When humans burn fossil fuels or cut down forests, the resulting carbon dioxide typically lingers in the atmosphere for hundreds of years, heating the planet all the while. This is why historical emissions are often used as a measure of global warming responsibility.

China has promised that emissions will peak this decade and then begin to decline. The country has installed more wind turbines and solar panels than all other countries combined and leads the world in electric vehicle sales. But even as China transitions to low-carbon energy, the country’s historical emissions are projected to approach U.S. emissions in the coming years, according to the Carbon Brief analysis.

money problem

China’s historical responsibility for climate change has become a major issue in global climate politics.

This week, diplomats and leaders from nearly 200 countries gathered at the United Nations Climate Change Summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, to discuss the trillions needed to help vulnerable countries transition to clean energy and combat droughts and heat waves. We discussed how to raise dollars. , flooding and other hazards of a warming planet. One of the big questions is where the money will come from.

Traditionally, the answer has been that wealthy developed countries should pay, such as the United States, Japan, Canada, Australia, and most countries in Western Europe.

Under the United Nations framework, first created in 1992, these developed countries have been asked to provide financial assistance. Countries such as China, India, and Saudi Arabia, as well as all countries in Africa, are classified as developing countries by that framework and are not required to participate.

But today, many wealthy countries argue that this distinction is no longer relevant. Leaders of the United States and the European Union called on China to increase climate financing to poor countries as part of the final agreement in Baku.

President Biden’s international climate adviser John Podesta said last week that “expansion of the donor base has long been justified.” “From the perspective of the world’s economic structure, this is not 1992.”

China claims it has already provided about $24.5 billion in climate finance to other developing countries since 2016. But European officials say similar transparency requirements do not apply to China and are urging the country to formalize its aid. They provide based on United Nations agreements. So far, China has been reluctant to do so.

In a speech last week, Chinese Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang said rich countries taking the lead in providing financial aid is the “foundation” of a global climate change agreement.

At the same time, other world leaders have criticized wealthy emitters such as the United States and Europe for falling behind on previous commitments on climate support, and urged them not to point to China as an excuse for inaction. There is.

Antigua and Barbuda Prime Minister Gaston Brown said: “Unless those most responsible for climate change take serious action, we cannot continue to hear the same promises while our small islands suffer.”

Looking at emissions differently

Total emissions are not the only metric to consider in issues of equity. The other is emissions per person.

With a population of 1.4 billion, China’s historical per capita emissions are still lower than those of the United States, European Union, Japan, and Canada.

Also, although India is currently one of the world’s largest consumers of fossil fuels, its per capita fossil fuel emissions have historically been relatively low. Although India is the world’s most populous country, it remains a relatively poor country, with tens of millions of people still without reliable access to electricity. India argues that as it develops, it should be given time to burn more fossil fuels.

At the same time, some wealthy oil and gas producing countries such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar have disproportionately high emissions per capita. U.S. and European leaders have suggested that these countries should also be asked to contribute more to climate finance.

How these disputes are resolved will determine whether negotiators from some 200 countries in Baku can agree on a new goal of providing $1.3 trillion in annual climate change aid. will be of great help. Experts believe it will not be easy to reach an agreement at the summit, which is scheduled to conclude on Friday.