We found some NFL player props for tonight’s Sunday Night Football.
In Chargers vs. Bengals, we see a fade out of Cincinnati safety Geno Stone’s tackle prop. Let’s talk about tonight’s NFL props.
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geno stone player prop
I faded out Stone’s tackle prop a few weeks ago against the Ravens, noting how he played deep at a high rate and split time between Vonn Bell and Jordan battling in the box. That trend continues, leading to a decline in Stone’s tackle percentage.
Stone has a very good schedule at safety in terms of tackle opportunities. I estimate he saw a schedule that improved his tackle percentage by +7%. But this will be his toughest matchup to date for tackles, as the Chargers have given the safety the fewest tackle opportunities.
Another interesting perspective here is that the Bengals are only chasing 25% of the snaps this season. As a one-point road dog here, I project them to track up to 42% of the snaps.
Stone saw his tackle rate drop significantly when the Bengals were behind. Here are his tackle percentages based on point differential:
Tie: 8.5% (tackles per snap) Leading: 8.5% Trailing: 4.2%
Stone benefits from Cincinnati not being as (potentially) behind as they were tonight. Again, that doesn’t mean the Bengals will be underdogs at any point tonight, but this potential angle will only help his odds stay below 4.5.
The fair price for tackles + assists for under 5.5s is -250, and the fair price for under 4.5s is -150. I expect Stone to approach 4.1 and like the idea that there’s about a 60% chance it will stay below that and there’s a positive money number there.
