For the fifth time in NFL history and third time in the Super Bowl era (since 1966), a team with a winning percentage of at least 70% will play at least three games after Week 11.
On Thursday Night Football, the Philadelphia Eagles improved to 8-2 after defeating the Washington Commanders 7-4 and are already 1-1. Similar games are scheduled for this week: Baltimore Ravens (7-3) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2) and Kansas City Chiefs (9-0) vs. Buffalo Bills (8-2) has been done.
These two games, and three others, have surprising outcomes predicted in the latest edition of CBS Sports’ Bold NFL Predictions. Let’s dig deeper.
Titans upset Vikings with stingy defense
Are the 7-2 Minnesota Vikings the real favorites to win the championship? Or is it a scam? Since their Week 6 bye week, they have lost to the Detroit Lions (31-29) and the Los Angeles Rams (30-20), with recently benched Joe Flacco and a loss to the Indianapolis Colts (21-0). Although they had a narrow victory over 20 losses, they now have 2 wins and 2 losses. 13) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (12 wins, 7 losses) led by Mac Jones.
With an 8-2 road win over the Jaguars in Week 10, the 2024 Vikings are the first to win a game with no touchdowns and three or more turnovers since the 2006 Green Bay Packers won against Minnesota. became a team. The NFL team lost 195 games in a row, had no touchdowns, and also had three turnovers. Quarterback Sam Darnold contributed all three giveaways with three interceptions and now has six passing touchdowns in the past five games after going from 11 touchdowns and four turnovers in the first four games. , had nine turnovers. He led the NFL with 13 turnovers this season and is averaging the third-most turnovers per game (1.11) in his career among active QBs who have started at least 50 games. Behind him are only Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (1.14 turnovers per game) and Cleveland Browns quarterback Jameis Winston (1.27 turnovers per game).
Darnold won’t be able to escape his turnover issues in Week 11 against the 2-7 Tennessee Titans. Their defense has allowed the second fewest total yards per game this season (273.6). That means Darnold will likely have to march the Vikings’ offense down the field without making too many big plays. Tennessee can also play keepaway behind the strength of running back Tony Pollard and the ground game. Pollard’s 666 rushing yards this season are 11th most in the NFL, and he leads the league in yards after contact per rush (3.77 yards) among players with at least 100 carries this season. The Titans made Minnesota realize the consequences of their sloppy play, sending them home with a loss.
Ravens beat Steelers, surrendering 30 points with NFL’s second-ranked scoring defense
The winner of Sunday afternoon’s Ravens-Steelers game in Pittsburgh will take first place in the AFC North. Looking at recent history, the Steelers have had a decisive advantage, winning seven of their last eight games, all by one point.
The Ravens are going to win this time, and they’re going to emphasize it by getting at least 30 points from a Steelers defense that allows the second fewest points per game in the entire NFL (16.2 points). All-Pro TJ Watt has four forced fumbles this season, tied for the most in the league with San Francisco 49ers linebacker Fred Warner entering Week 11.
Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson’s past against the Steelers is ugly. He’s lost three of his four starts against the Steelers with four total touchdowns and 10 turnovers, but he has a passer rating of 66.4 in those four starts, the lowest against an NFL team. It becomes. None of that will matter Sunday against the Steelers. The Ravens’ offense has continued its historic run this season, averaging 7.1 yards per play, the most in the Super Bowl era (since 1966).
why? That’s because Jackson and running back Derrick Henry are on track to make history. Jackson is on pace to post the highest single-season passer rating in NFL history (123.2) and leads the NFL in nearly every passing metric this season. He is on track to throw for 4,537 yards and rush for 914 yards entering Week 11 this season, according to CBS Sports Research, and is on track to become the first player in NFL history to have at least 4,000 passing yards and 800 passing yards this season. is progressing to
completion rate
69.1%*
7th place
2,669 passing yards
second
passing yards/at
9.3*
1st place
Pass TD
twenty four*
T-1st
TD-INT
24-2*
1st place
Evaluation of successful candidates
123.2*
1st place
Expected additional points/play 0.31*1st place
*Career high
Through Week 10, Henry led the NFL in carries (184), rushing yards (1,120), yards per carry and rushing touchdowns (12) since Pro Football Hall of Famer Terrell Davis (1998). He is the first player to do so. He’s also keeping pace. He set career highs in yards per carry (6.1) and rushing touchdowns (20). This backfield is unstoppable, even with the stout Steelers defense.
Bills suffer first loss to Chiefs in 2024, ending KC’s winning streak at 15
This time of year is one of the soccer world’s favorite times of the year. The AFC Goliath battle between Patrick Mahomes’ undefeated Chiefs and Josh Allen’s AFC East-leading Bills arrives in Week 11. Mahomes’ Chiefs are undefeated, but they have the lowest point differential (+58) of any 9-0 team in NFL history.
Mahomes has played worse than he has ever played in his eight-season career, with just 12 touchdown passes and a 90.3 passer rating through nine games, but the Chiefs are still looking to win. I keep stumbling on the road.
However, this game will be won by Allen against defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, a four-time Super Bowl champion with the Chiefs, and his electric defense. According to TruMedia, Kansas City blitzes on 36.9% of its opponent’s dropbacks, the third-highest rate in the NFL this season, and the defense’s total expected points added when blitzed (41.45) this season. is the most in the entire league. Conversely, Allen had 705 passing yards, 11 touchdowns, and no interceptions against the Blitz in 2024, making him the most passing touchdowns against the Blitz in the entire league this season, according to NFL Pro Insights. This means that it has been recorded.
A major factor in Allen’s blitz success is his more solid style of play. Instead of scrambling and chasing deep balls, he started throwing faster, shorter balls. That’s why he started 2024 with a seven-game streak without an interception. The Bills’ offensive line is also extremely stable. According to CBS Sports Research, the Bills are just one of two teams, along with the San Francisco 49ers, to use the same starting five offensive linemen for every game in 2024, and a combination of five offensive linemen. He has recorded the most offensive snaps among the players. . The lineup of left tackle Dion Dawkins, left guard David Edwards, center Connor McGovern, right guard Ocyrus Torrence and right tackle Spencer Brown has combined for 547 offensive snaps.
Average pass length (yards)
7.7
shortest
Average pitching time
2.84
fastest
turnover/game
0.6
minimum
Rush YPG
26.1
minimum
Allen could and will win in Week 11 with Spagnuolo and his signature blitzkrieg to hand the Chiefs their first loss of 2024.
Packers QB Jordan Love ends interception streak with 7 against elite Bears pass defense
Many liken Green Bay Packers starting quarterback Jordan Love to his future Hall of Fame predecessor Aaron Rodgers because of their sometimes eerily similar mechanics and ball placement. But he’s currently playing closer to Rodgers’ Hall of Fame predecessor, Brett Favre. Love currently has a seven-game interception streak, the longest streak by a Packers quarterback since Favre’s 12-game streak during the 2005-2006 season.
Love’s 15 touchdown passes are tied for the eighth-most in the NFL this season, tied with Rodgers, and his 10 interceptions are tied for the most in the league this season, tied with Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith and Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold. It becomes. According to CBS Sports Research, Love is the first player since former Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck in 2015 to have at least 15 touchdown passes and at least 10 interceptions in the first seven games of a season. There is also.
However, Love’s winning streak came to an end in Week 11 against the Chicago Bears. This is a bold prediction, as Chicago has the best defense in the NFL, ranking in the top 10 or top 5 in multiple key pass defense metrics.
PPG permission
18.6
7th place
Percentage of completion allowed
61.6
5th place
Pass YPG Permit
190.4
7th place
TD-INT permission
6-8
3rd place
Passer Ratings Allowed
77.4
second
Matt LaFleur has a 10-0 record against Chicago since taking over as Green Bay’s coach in 2019, which was led by Mike Holmgren and Brett Favre from 1994-98. It ties the Packers’ 10-game winning streak for the longest streak in series history. In Love’s two wins against Chicago last season, he threw five touchdowns and zero interceptions. He continued to play at that level in Chicago on Sunday, ending his streak of consecutive interceptions against a top-tier Bears secondary at seven.
Maxx Crosby can’t beat Tua Tagovailoa, extending his sackless streak to three games
Maxx Crosby, a three-time Pro Bowl edge rusher for the Las Vegas Raiders, is having another Pro Bowl year. His 6.5 sacks are tied for 13th in the NFL, and his 11 lost tackles and four attempted passes are both tied for third-most in each metric this season.
But he’s now without a sack in each of his last two games. Despite Crosby’s pass rush chops, that streak will extend to three against Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins. Tagovailoa has thrown three passes in his last three starts, but has been sacked just 5.5 percent of the time on dropbacks, the ninth-lowest rate in the entire NFL. Even worse news for Crosby is that Tagovailoa’s average pitch time of 2.53 seconds is the fastest in the NFL this season.
Crosby is elite, but his no-sack streak won’t end in Week 11.
