Indeed, even Nostradamus doesn’t always get it right.
Alan Lichtman has accurately predicted the outcome of 9 of the past 10 US presidential elections (even the unpredictable election in 2000, which he claims was stolen from Al Gore) ). His predictive model of the “13 keys” to the White House was imitated around the world and appeared nearly indestructible.
Until Donald Trump, the infamous human wrecking ball, showed up and smashed his crystal ball. Lichtman, who predicted that Democrat Kamala Harris would win eight of the keys and win the presidency, has now been forced to face the harsh reality that her winning streak has come to an end. Was that a big blow for you personally?
“Of course,” the 77-year-old admitted over the phone. “But I’m more concerned about the blow to our democracy than I am about the personal blow. Even before the election, I said, ‘If I’m wrong, the impact on the keys… ”It is much more important to look at the broader impact. ”
Mr. Lichtman, a history professor who has taught at American University in Washington for more than half a century, developed Key to the White House in the early 1980s. Together with Soviet earthquake prediction expert Vladimir Kaylis-Volokh, he views elections in terms of stability (the party holding the White House retains it) and seismicity (the party holding the White House is ousted). It was analyzed from
They devised 13 true/false questions. If six or more keys go against the party in the White House, the party loses. Lichtman successfully used this model to predict Ronald Reagan’s victory in 1984 and (almost) every election since. After the 2016 election, he received a copy of a Washington Post interview with a message written in Sharpie pen. “Congratulations, Professor.” Good call. It’s Donald J. Trump. ”
The 2024 election will always be a tough test for Lichtman. Joe Biden resigned in favor of Harris, but Trump, a norm-breaker who survived two assassination attempts, aims to become the first former president to regain the White House since Grover Cleveland in the 19th century. was.
Why did he think Harris would win, and what did he do wrong? “The key is that rational, pragmatic voters believe that the party in the White House has enough control to get another four years in office.” “It is premised on the proposition that one determines whether or not one is doing something,” he explains. “While this type of hatred and violence is new, there are now unprecedented elements in our political system, the most prominent of which is disinformation.
“Disinformation has always existed, but it’s exploded like we’ve never seen before. It’s not just Fox News and right-wing media. It’s also right-wing podcasters, and we There’s a whole new player, the $300 billion man, Elon Musk, whose wealth exceeds most countries in the world and is weighed heavily on disinformation.
Musk’s SuperPac reportedly spent about $200 million to help elect Trump, while his social media platform X (formerly Twitter) amplified right-wing propaganda. Musk is a powerful surrogate for President Trump and has since become a near-permanent fixture at his Mar-a-Lago club in Florida. He will now work with entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy to lead efforts to reduce wasteful government spending.
Mr. Lichtman continued: “The disinformation he spread has reportedly been viewed billions of times. Disinformation spreads to every aspect of our society and economy. Many people live in a different world, and it is It calls into question the fundamental foundations of political decision-making in this country.”
They include disinformation about inflation, jobs, employment, the stock market, growth, hurricane aid, the war in Ukraine, and illegal immigration, which actually has a much lower crime rate than native-born Americans. However, he is incorrectly portrayed as a dangerous murderer.
Another problem for Lichtman’s model was presidential candidates who have consistently broken the rulebook and defied classification. “We have always been with us in the history of this country, the darkest impulses in American life: racism, misogyny, xenophobia, anti-Semitism, but this time We’ve seen much more of Trump conveying things that have skyrocketed than we’ve ever seen them before.
“There are new things on the horizon in our politics, which have implications for predictions and are likely to influence predictions for the future, but with larger messages for the future of our democracy.” George Orwell was 40 years too early. We made it clear that they do not arise from information control, or from doublethink. There is enough hunger, but there is peace. We are in the age of doublethink. But you may or may not be able to get out of it.”
After Lichtman made his 2024 prediction, he and his wife received backlash in the form of death threats, vile abuse, and even people trying to break into their home. They were also victims of swatting (false reports of threats aimed at eliciting harsh police action at the victim’s home) and doxxing, where personal information is published online.
“I’ve been doing this job for 42 years and I’ve never had this kind of remote experience,” he says. “We’ve never had to call the police before. Now they’ve been here several times. They’re on alert. They called the FBI.”
Lichtman, who once watched John F. Kennedy speak in New York as an idealistic 13-year-old, is appalled at what politics has become. “It tells us that America has fallen to a whole new low,” he reflects.
“All I did was exercise my freedom of speech, and yet here I am, exposed to all of this hate, trying to violate the safety of my family. And it always uses violence as justified.” This is consistent with what we’ve heard from Donald Trump, who has also dehumanized people he disagrees with as pests, scum, and less than human beings to be dealt with. I have never seen anything like that before.”
Looking back on his miscalculations in 2024, Lichtman has no intention of letting go of the Democratic Party. He was a staunch defender of Biden until the end, criticizing the party that forced him to resign in favor of Harris. He is now unimpressed by the epic blame game and self-flagellation over the election results.
“They’re blaming others, but they’re not taking any responsibility. This election proves what I’ve been saying for years: American politics in one word. Yes, the Republicans have no principles and the Democrats have no backbone.”
As if to prove that point, President Trump nominated Matt Gaetz, a former MAGA bomb thrower who was the subject of a sex-trafficking investigation, to be attorney general. The post is currently held by Merrick Garland, who has known Mr. Lichtman for 60 years.
“I love the guy,” he says. “I thought he was probably the greatest federal judge in America, but now he’s become a symbol of the spineless Democrats who allowed all of this to happen. It deferred for almost two years before appointing a special counsel (to investigate Trump’s role in the investigation).
“Everyone knew what Mr. Trump did on January 7th. Certainly, we knew it when Merrick Garland was appointed in early 2021. If Trump had done what he should have done right away, everything would have been different if Trump had been convicted of a serious federal crime and sentenced to prison or probation. I believe the whole system would have changed.”
Lichtman added: “He’s the epitome of a spineless Democrat. ‘Oh, I don’t want to do this because it might be seen as political and I might get criticized by Republicans.'” Did you learn nothing from the nomination? Republicans are going to do what they’re going to do.
“It doesn’t depend on what you do. I always say, ‘It’s not just evil people wreaking havoc in this world, it’s the good people who aren’t doing enough to stop them. We follow the belief that “We are a people of good faith.” And Merrick Garland is right at the center of that. ”
Lichtman admits that the Trump-Musk axis “broke my forecasting models this year,” but he plans to pick himself up, dust himself off, and try again in 2028. “It will take several years,” he promises. “The great thing about being a presidential prognosticator is that you have four years to get back on track.
“Assuming I am still alive at age 81 and fully committed to my department, I will be monitoring very closely the important developments in the coming years and will also be working hard to defend democracy. I’m going to speak out. All that matters is that I’m completely nonpartisan, but I also have my own political views and I’m going to express them. And when I think Democrats deserve criticism, I hold back. I won’t.”
