Lima, Peru
CNN
—
When President Joe Biden meets for the last time with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Saturday, aides say it will be a ripe time to reflect on a relationship that began more than a decade ago over a long meal in Chengdu.
It was an episode that left a deep impression on the president, at least judging from what he frequently talks about. A search of Mr. Biden’s speeches from the past four years found 61 instances in which he talked about the moment at the end of the evening when Mr. Xi was asked to define America and he came up with one word: “possibility.”
In the end, it may be more productive for Mr. Biden and Mr. Xi to look back than to try to predict what will happen next for both countries.
President Donald Trump’s return to the White House is the overwhelming backdrop to the Pacific Summit in Lima this week, as participants debate and strategize for an uncertain future.
Trump’s tariffs, authoritarianism and isolationist views run counter to most of the foreign policy principles Biden has espoused on the world stage over the past four years.
But perhaps most perplexing to the leaders gathered in Lima is President Trump’s unpredictability. That includes Mr. Xi, who regularly promotes stability above all else in his public statements.
The day before his meeting with Biden, Mr. Xi said in prepared remarks at the APEC summit that the world had “entered a new period of turmoil and change,” according to a report by the state-run Xinhua news agency. He warned of the spread of nationalism and protectionism.
While the scars of his chaotic first administration still linger and we look for clues as to whether President Trump will adopt a more egalitarian approach in his second administration, world leaders are trying to keep up with Mar-a-Lago. I am not encouraged by the selection of cabinet ministers revealed in . Talk of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Tulsi Gabbard, Pete Hegseth and former Reps. Matt Gaetz has permeated the back hallways of the Lima Convention Center, where the APEC summit is being held.
To Mr. Xi and his Chinese advisers, Mr. Trump is not the mysterious figure they spent four years with Mr. Biden before taking office. But like most of President Trump’s policy choices, it’s anyone’s guess how he will choose to approach the world’s most important bilateral relationship this time around.
There are signs of a more aggressive stance, including his hawkish choices for top national security roles. He has promised to impose massive 60% tariffs on imports from China, a move that will introduce new instability into an already contentious relationship.
But there are also memories of trying to groom Mr. Xi during his first administration in hopes of securing trade deals and improving other areas of cooperation. In the end, President Trump and President Xi Jinping signed a trade deal in which China agreed to buy hundreds of billions of dollars of American goods, but never made the purchases.
Trade tensions and Xi’s attempts to cover up the origins of the coronavirus ultimately soured relations between the two men. How President Trump acts this time could have far-reaching implications for the region and the world.
Aside from those interests, Mr. Biden has said little to reassure Mr. Xi that relations between Washington and Beijing will be smooth in the coming years. Biden administration officials admit they have little insight into what the notoriously unpredictable leader is planning.
What Biden can do, they argue, is reiterate to Xi the value of maintaining communication amid expected conflict.
“Transition is a uniquely consequential moment in geopolitics. This is a time of potential opportunity for competitors and adversaries,” Jake Sullivan, President Biden’s national security adviser, said in a statement. I spoke on the way there. “So part of what President Biden will be communicating is that we need to maintain stability, clarity and predictability through this transition between the United States and China.”
Unlike the previous two talks, which took place on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Bali and at a mansion outside San Francisco, the Lima talks are not expected to yield much. In addition to the usual topics like Taiwan, Ukraine, fentanyl production, and human rights, the men discussed a new irritant: China’s alleged attempts to hack President Trump’s cellphone and other equipment associated with the campaign. We are planning to talk about our efforts.
But most likely it will be an opportunity to look back on what has been a long and somewhat complicated relationship.
The two met while each served as vice president. Biden was sent by the Obama administration to take his temperature as it became clear that Xi Jinping was ready to take over China’s leadership.
Biden likes to boast that he traveled tens of thousands of miles with Xi and spent more time with him than any other world leader. And while that may have been true at one time, Mr. Xi has clearly turned his attention to deepening ties with another leader, Russia’s Vladimir Putin.
The “unfettered” partnership they declared at the beginning of Biden’s term has worried U.S., European and Asian officials alike, and the growing anti-Western partnership between China, Russia, Iran and North Korea. seen as one of the greatest security threats of the future. Already, the United States assesses that China is sending tools and technology to Russia to make missiles, aircraft, and tanks for use in the war against Ukraine. And the revelation that North Korea has sent troops to Russia to fight in Ukraine looms over talks in Peru this week.
How President Trump will confront these threats has not been discussed at length, at least as a candidate.
In a speech Friday, Biden praised the strengthening of the trilateral partnership between the United States, Japan and South Korea, and acknowledged that the world is facing a “moment of profound political change.”
Biden’s efforts to unite Tokyo and South Korea into a closer partnership after years of historic friction are a key aspect of his accomplishments in East Asia and his efforts to build a counterweight to China. Equivalent to an attempt.
It’s an area that his aides believe can and should continue in the incoming Trump administration, but they acknowledge there is little need to continue with the president-elect’s intentions.
Biden acknowledged Friday that his meetings with South Korea’s Yoon Seok-yeol and Japan’s new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba are likely to be his last before he leaves office in January.
But he said his efforts to bring the three countries closer together after years of historical hardship and tension will endure.
“I think it’s built to last,” he said. “That is my hope and expectation.”
