The 2024 New York Mets was an incredibly fast-paced, exhausting, exhilarating and thrilling game. They were a ragtag group of well-paid outcasts with anthropomorphic purple blobs and Latin-pop earworm magic. The Mets rode on to a good atmosphere and advanced to the NLCS. Shortstop Francisco Lindor’s MVP runner-up campaign also helped.
Here are five key questions that make for an engaging and active winter in Queens.
1. How much will my salary increase?
Mets owner Steve Cohen is the 39th richest person in America, according to Forbes magazine. Since buying the Mets for $2.4 billion in 2020, Cohen has poured millions into new toys. Once a circus of frugality, the Mets organization has revamped its reputation and is now firmly considered one of the sports world’s financial juggernauts.
Last offseason, for the first time since Director of Baseball Operations David Stearns took over, the Mets focused on depth by signing a number of players to one-year contracts. These shrewd acquisitions propelled the 2024 OMG Mets into New York sports history and helped get the Mets back on winning ways. However, with so many key players becoming free agents, the Mets could look very different next season.
And different could mean better considering the Mets have the financial flexibility to be very active. The current projected salary is about $170 million less than the $336 million goal by the end of 2024. But how high will it go? Stearns, who trained as the frugal Milwaukee Brewers manager, has a track record of conservative management. Cohen, on the other hand, is the anti-Scrooge. Given his historically high salary, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Mets spend a lot of money on free agents this winter.
2. Will they sign Soto?
We know Juan Soto is going to sign for at least $550 million, an amount that Cohen and Co. can certainly afford. Whatever the Yankees offer, Cohen could theoretically tap into the unlimited wealth of hedge funds and outbid his crosstown rivals. Soto’s agent, Scott Boras, will be hoping to capitalize on this very dynamic to drive prices higher.
Therefore, the Mets’ breakthrough in Soto can be summarized in three dynamics.
Did Soto’s year in the Bronx do enough to convince him it took less money (though still a lot of money) to become a Yankee?
How high will the Yankees aim?
Can the Mets convince Soto that Queens is a better fit?
The outcome of the Soto sweepstakes will likely determine the rest of the Mets’ offseason. If they reel in a big fish, they will be a little more deliberate in filling their roster. If the Mets miss out on Soto, their pivot could be a windfall for other highly touted free agents.
3. Is Pete Alonso’s era over?
No player has hit more home runs at Citi Field than Alonso, but Alonso had a dominant season in the final year of his contract. Still, the bubbly Basher hit 34 long balls in 2024, finishing the year with a batting line 23% above league average. It’s also important to consider what he means to the franchise. Alonso has started 86% of the team’s games at first base since his debut in 2019 and is currently 32 home runs shy of Darryl Strawberry’s Mets career home run record of 252. Alonso could become a franchise icon if (1) he stays with Queen’s and (2) has a few more productive seasons.
Still, there are good reasons to be wary of Alonso’s profile. He’s a 30-year-old right-handed first baseman with relatively little athleticism and isn’t very good at defense either. These types of sluggers often don’t age very well. The “smart” move would be to let Alonso walk, move breakout 2024 breakout Mark Vientos from third base (where his glove is subpar) to first base (an okay spot) and find a new third baseman. His tact cannot be taken for granted, and there are not many other players who can provide such reliable home run power.
The Mets could sign Soto and Alonso, but would they want to? As both players get older, they will need at-bats at the DH. Having two one-dimensional sluggers on the same roster can create a jam. On the other hand, the two would form a formidable right-handed/left-handed combo in the middle of the lineup for a long time.
Will the Mets’ offer end up being Alonso’s highest offer? Probably not. His free agency could come down to (1) the gap between the Mets and the next best offer, and (2) whether Alonso chooses continuity over cash.
4. How do I replenish my rotation?
The rotation was essential for New York’s surprise season, and three-fifths of that group – Sean Manaea, Luis Severino and Jose Quintana – are on the open market this winter. This leaves Japanese folkball player Kodai Chiga and left-hander David Peterson, who were injured for most of 2024. If these two are healthy, they are guaranteed to be starters. Tyler Megill and Paul Blackburn could be in the mix, but both are best deployed as depth options. That means the Mets will need to add at least two, and possibly three, starters.
Stearns was surprisingly open about this dynamic, telling reporters at his year-end press conference: You need to add more than one starter. we understand that. We went into last offseason with the same needs and we believe we can do it. ”
There is no doubt that the Mets can use an undisputed ace at the front of their rotation. There are only three or four free agent hurlers who meet that requirement: Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Max Fried, and Loki Sasaki, with Burns being the most reliable option. Snell has two Cy Youngs, but there are concerns about his durability. Fried has a strong track record of stopping baserunners, but is best paired with strong infield defense. Sasaki may have the highest ceiling of anyone on the planet, but he can’t be relied on to lead a staff straight away from Japan. With or without Soto, the Mets are expected to value this quartet. Beyond that, Severino’s return seems most likely, as sources suggested to Yahoo Sports that the Hurlers are very interested in a reunion.
As Stearns mentioned, the Mets assembled a very impressive rotation through free agency last year and can be expected to do so again.
5. What other weapons will be added?
In the team’s four losses in the NLCS, the Mets conceded nine, eight, 10, and 10 runs to the eventual World Series champions. The bullpen in particular was stretched throughout October. Captain Carlos Mendoza didn’t have much else, so he relied heavily on a couple of trusted hands: Edwin Diaz, Ryne Stanek, and Reed Garrett. That wasn’t an issue in the wild-card round and a short series in the NLDS, but it was exposed for the Mets in a seven-game set against the Dodgers.
The Mets need more relievers, better relievers, and reliable hurlers for big spots in the postseason. Considering they already have a millionaire in Diaz, it’s unlikely they’ll shop at the high end of the bullpen market. However, Stearns expects to add a few relief pitchers on short-term contracts, especially those with big game experience. Kirby Yates, Blake Treinen, and Jeff Hoffman all fit this criteria.
