As the Carolina Panthers’ victory over the New York Giants came to a close last Sunday, I started thinking about the impact this result would have on the 2025 NFL Draft.
Ten weeks into the season, so many teams still have a legitimate chance to grab the No. 1 pick. 11 teams only have two or three wins at the moment, so every loss counts. And when talking about draft order, some are more important than others. With the Giants losing to the equally corrupt Panthers, New York State has a much better chance than Carolina of getting a spot near the top of the draft.
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But are the Giants, who are 2-8, the favorites for the No. 1 pick? no. Not according to my NFL prediction model.
With the help of a model, we’ll break down the five teams most likely to secure the top spot in the draft. As a reminder, the model simulates the season over 100,000 times to come up with the most likely outcome. And while these simulations are typically used to predict the playoffs and Super Bowl, they don’t discriminate against bad teams and can even predict draft order.
One of the most important factors when determining which team is most likely to pick No. 1 is simply how well that team performs. It’s painfully obvious, but it needs to be stated. Just one win can lead to huge progress. Remember a few years ago when the New York Jets lost the opportunity to draft Trevor Lawrence due to back-to-back wins over the Los Angeles Rams and Cleveland Browns?The second major part of this equation is that each team’s Here’s the rest of the schedule. Considering the team’s record and the strength of its remaining schedule, it will most likely get the opportunity to draft its next franchise quarterback or Colorado’s two-way star Travis Hunter, the new team’s No. 1. I can paint a pretty good picture of who that person is. Dane Brugler’s latest draft board.
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Chance of Raiders picking No. 1: 30%
Why are the Raiders No. 1? There are two reasons. First, they have the 12th-hardest schedule remaining for the remainder of the season. Second, my prediction is that the Raiders are considered the second-worst team in the NFL behind the Panthers. And to be honest, if you told me that the Panthers would have a better record than the Raiders by the end of the season, I would believe you. The Panthers appear to have direction within their organization. I don’t know if the same can be said for the Raiders.
The Raiders face five teams in the remaining playoff race, with the remaining two facing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints, teams that are expected to get better as the season progresses and are by no means easy. You won’t be able to win.
Key Remaining Games: Week 16 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8)
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Probability that the Giants will pick No. 1: 15%
As I mentioned earlier, losing to the Panthers was huge for the Giants’ draft position. Not only did they have the right to a direct tiebreaker against the Panthers (strength of schedule is then the first tiebreaker to determine draft position), but the Giants lost! No team likes to lose, but for a team in dire need of a quarterback, it’s in their best interest to lose their remaining games (which you can probably say about most teams on this list).
The Giants face an average schedule (18th toughest) the rest of the season, which combined with the loss to the Panthers, puts them in second place in this ranking.
Key Remaining Games: Week 14 vs. New Orleans (3-7)
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Chance of Panthers picking No. 1: 12%
Losing the game would be a positive for the Panthers, but they will likely prioritize the maturation of 2023 No. 1 pick and starting quarterback Bryce Young. The Panthers would certainly benefit from adding quality talent to their roster, but Young, who has bounced back from a dismal start to his career, would be far more beneficial if they are to turn things around. If that means a few more wins and a slightly worse draft position, so be it.
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With Chuba Hubbard and improved D, the Panthers are still not a good team, but they are taking steps.
In terms of schedule, the Panthers are in the middle with an average number of days remaining (15 days). The good thing for them is that I project them to be the worst team in the NFL (especially because of their defense). Therefore, winning will be difficult. The only team with less than three wins remaining in the season is the Dallas Cowboys. However, the game against the Bucks in Week 13 could seriously hurt his chances of being the No. 1 pick, as he has a good chance of pulling off an upset there, so Mark will be.
Remaining key games: Week 13 vs. Tampa Bay (4-6)
Probability that the Browns will pick No. 1: 10%
The Browns are in the familiar position of being on the verge of finishing in the top five. This series has been moving in the right direction in some ways over the past few years, but with the Deshaun Watson trade, it looks like they’re back to square one.
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Now, the Browns are probably the best team on this list, by a good chunk, but they’re playing the fifth-toughest remaining schedule. It will have a huge impact on the Victory Pillar.
The fate of the Browns’ first-round pick next year will likely depend on the next three weeks. Cleveland will play New Orleans at home in what is supposed to be a coin toss game, which the Browns should probably win. They will then play at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers on “Thursday Night Football,” before facing off against the Denver Broncos. If he improves his performance too much during that period, he will no longer be a candidate for the first pick, but if he has 0 wins and 3 losses, he will have a good chance of being picked first.
Key Remaining Games: Week 11 at New Orleans
Probability that the Jaguars will pick No. 1: 9 percent.
This is the toughest because of the uncertainty of Lawrence’s injury. I expect Lawrence to miss four weeks, so the Jags will take the No. 5 spot on this list ahead of the New England Patriots and Tennessee Titans. But if he returns sooner and stays healthy, the Titans, who still have two games left against Jacksonville, could move up into this spot.
That being said, the Jags have been awful this year, even with Lawrence in the lineup. The upcoming schedule is relatively easy, so they might start winning, but it will be difficult for this team to win more than five games, even with Lawrence expected to return.
A key part of the Jaguars’ schedule will be games against the Raiders and Titans in Weeks 16 and 17. Lawrence’s return would give him an advantage in those games. Otherwise they will become weak.
Key Remaining Games: Week 17 vs. Tennessee (2-7)
5 more teams with a chance to pick No. 1
• New England Patriots (3-7): 9%
• Tennessee Titans: 8%
• Dallas Cowboys (3-6): 3%
• New York Jets (3-7): 2%
• New Orleans Saints: 2%
(Photo: Adam Pretty/Getty Images)
