NATO has now confirmed the presence of North Korean troops in Russia.
Rumored to have been there for several months, up to 10,000 soldiers, accompanied by senior staff members (including three generals), have moved from North Korea to the Russian-controlled area of Kursk and will soon begin combat operations. There is increasing evidence that this will occur.
Here’s what you need to know about the presence of these forces in conflict zones and why North Korea is joining Russia’s war.
An inexperienced squad with a lot to learn
While there is no denying the strength and toughness of individual North Korean soldiers, no one in the North Korean military has experience fighting a mechanized conflict using 21st century weaponry.
Drones, sensors, and constant surveillance of the battlefield will be fused with time-tested tactics such as combined arms warfare, trench clearing, and the use of long-range precision artillery.
This will be crucial if North Korea aims to wage a successful war with South Korea.
As Kim Jong-un watched the war in Ukraine escalate, it was abundantly clear what would happen to an unprepared or inexperienced force.
The new troops arrived in Russia without any equipment and will need to learn how to use Russian models. This is less of a problem since both countries use Soviet-era weapons.
The challenge is that the Russian military lacks Korean speakers and the North Korean military lacks Russian speakers, making command and control an issue.
Also, in modern warfare, where drones constantly scout the battlefield, mass casualties can occur instantly to units captured in the field.
Urban combat over ruined towns and cities requires a high degree of training and coordination, which is usually not easy in conflict environments with high casualties.
Assuming some survive the conflict, North Korea has a lot to gain.
North Korea’s interests
Harvest failures continue in the isolated communist country, leading to food shortages. Evading international sanctions is expensive, and funds available on the black market are scarce.
Russia can help with all of this, reportedly paying up to $2,000 per soldier. The two countries have deepened military ties and recently signed a defense agreement.
North Korea provides Russia with large quantities of 122mm and 152mm artillery shells, as well as mortar shells and rockets for Russia’s multiple rocket artillery systems.
North Korean missiles were used against Ukraine. The quality of all this military equipment was poor, and captured ammunition stocks sometimes failed 4 out of 5 times.
Russia can provide technical advice to improve the quality and output of the industry. Russia’s demand for ammunition is nearly insatiable, and both Russia and Ukraine recognize that continued supplies are essential to continuing the war.
Russia could provide support to North Korea’s nascent space program and help upgrade its satellites and the rockets that carry them.
North Korea also gains combat experience in modern warfare, something it does not have on its own.
But what will Russia gain from this deployment?
Russian interests
Russia spent huge sums of money to counter Ukraine’s attack on Kursk and invasion of Donetsk. It has succeeded in containing Ukraine in southern Russia, is making incremental advances in Donetsk, and is struggling to stop Russia’s sustained attacks on Ukrainian cities in Pokrovsk.
All this came at great cost.
An estimated 80,000 soldiers were killed or wounded in these operations. This equates to approximately 1,200 casualties per day, an unsustainable loss even for Russia.
The injection of troops may be just what Russia needs, as its military is nearly exhausted after months of attacks.
How will the Russians use these new troops?
It is very likely that a frontal human attack will be carried out, as it has done against its own forces in the past.
Soldiers with no combat experience are better suited for defensive positions, freeing up more experienced soldiers, well-trained marines, and paratroopers to take on offensive operations to reclaim Russian territory held by Ukraine. .
To this end, Russia is massing infantry, artillery, and tanks in Kursk, and a new counterattack is about to begin.
How will this affect the war effort?
Its impact will be felt near and far.
There are two questions here. First, what impact will the success of the Russian operation in Kursk have on the war? And second, what impact will North Korea’s involvement have?
Ukraine attacked and invaded Russia in the summer with lightning speed, catching defenders by surprise and quickly seizing weak Russian towns and villages.
Russia reluctantly moved troops out of Donetsk and reinforced them with troops from the Pacific Fleet and elsewhere in Russia, ultimately slowing and stopping the Ukrainian advance.
These units are now in place and ready to go.
If Russia succeeds in driving Ukrainian forces back to the border, Ukraine will lose an important bargaining chip in any eventual peace talks.
It would also allow tens of thousands of Russian soldiers to fight in Donetsk, the focus of the entire war, making it much more likely that Russia would capture the entire province.
North Korea recently ratified the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with Russia, which was signed in June.
The treaty is currently in force and includes provisions for mutual assistance in the event either side is attacked. Ukraine’s intrusion into Russian territory falls under this definition.
What is Ukraine concerned about?
The concern for Ukraine and NATO is that the first few thousand North Korean troops stationed in Kursk will be the first of many to follow.
If Russia escalates by allowing large numbers of foreign troops into the conflict, what will stop NATO countries from sending their own volunteer forces to fight for Ukraine?
Although a small number of foreign volunteers are already fighting on both sides, it would be an entirely different matter if NATO-sanctioned forces were to join the conflict, which would bring direct contact between NATO and Russian forces.
This would dramatically expand the scope of the conflict and risk formally drawing NATO and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), an alliance of former Soviet states led by Russia, into war.
Russia has chosen to include North Korean soldiers in the fight, so far in the thousands, but the possibility of large numbers of foreign soldiers joining the Russian military is just one step away.
Despite the new US administration, led by President-elect Donald Trump, promising to end the conflict in some way, assuming Russia will listen, the risk of miscalculation and runaway escalation is now very real. are.
