European Union leaders took to social media Wednesday morning to congratulate Donald J. Trump on his landslide victory in the U.S. presidential election, but few felt positive about the change in U.S. leadership on security and trade. Experts told Al Jazeera that this is likely.
“Trump has made it clear that European countries need to increase their defense spending further. He wants to commit to 3% of GDP, and we can expect him to push this hard. ” said Anna Wieslander, Nordic Director at the Atlantic Council.
NATO members pledged to raise defense spending to 2% of gross domestic product (GDP) after Russia invaded Crimea a decade ago. NATO says it took until this year to accomplish that because many countries waited until Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 to take action.
“European countries have long recognized the need to strengthen their security and defense, but this recognition has not been matched by resources or real political will,” Wieslander told Al Jazeera. “The systematic threat that Russia poses to European security makes this transition extremely urgent once U.S. involvement is reduced.Europe must now support Ukraine in its victory over Russia. It’s about being in the lead.”
President Trump last year pressured Congress to postpone $61 billion in military aid to Ukraine, but has expressed skepticism about approving more aid, adding to the 43.5 billion euros already spent by the European Union. 46.3 billion) and the bill could cause problems for European countries.
Bullying European countries into increasing defense spending could be a double-edged sword.
Guy Verhofstadt, a member of parliament who heads the European Alliance of Liberal Democrats, wrote of X: “The ‘free world’ will be led by convicted felons and demagogues who do not share our values but who seek to destroy them. Liberal democracy is in crisis. Is Europe ready? No. Is it possible that the real leadership we so desperately need will emerge?
French President Emmanuel Macron has been the standard-bearer for greater European strategic autonomy.
On Wednesday morning, he wrote to X: In this new situation, we will work towards a more united, stronger and more sovereign Europe. ”
Within hours of the message, German Finance Minister Christian Lindner withdrew from the three-party coalition over a dispute over defense spending, and Scholz declared he would hold a vote of confidence in January, followed by an early general election in March. It was announced that this may take place.
“It’s not going to be an immediate wake-up call.”
“Strategic autonomy will be hampered by the domestic situation in France and Germany,” said Dimitar Bechev, director of the Dahrendorf Program on Europe in a Changing World at the University of Oxford’s Center for European Studies.
Parallel to Germany’s crumbling coalition government, Mr Macron has been forming a minority government since parliamentary elections in July.
“There will be some pain before that pain galvanizes[the continent]further into European unity. That is not an immediate alarm bell,” said Robert Schumann, a research fellow at the European University Institute. Katherine Fieschi told Al Jazeera.
She attributed this to the fact that German elections and the European Parliament “are conducting audits of commissioners, half of whom have been in office for the past five years, and it’s a huge waste of time.”
“As we know, in January there will be a swift and brutal transition of power (in the United States),” she said. “We will experience depression, panic, confusion and uncertainty. At the end of the day, we will be more united in Europe than we have been in years past, given President Trump’s brutality.”
She added: “I think we may finally see the Zeitenwende, which has been promised for years, actually take shape.”
Scholz announced the Zeitenwende (groundbreaking changes), which includes part of a 100 billion euro ($106 billion) increase in defense spending, shortly after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. did. It took until 2024 to actually raise defense spending to 2% of GDP.
Wieslander says Europe will also face opposition to Trump’s autonomy.
“He does not want the European defense market to become autonomous, which is a precondition for Europe’s strategic autonomy.In fact, during the previous Trump administration, he did not want the European defense market to become autonomous, but rather We have seen that he urged them to buy more. He also expressed a desire for European countries to develop their own nuclear deterrents, another necessary condition for European strategic autonomy. do not have.”
A recent European Parliament study found that from 2022 onwards, 78% of EU member states’ procurement budgets will be awarded outside the EU, including 63% in the US, an even higher proportion than before the Ukraine war. There is.
And despite the fact that the EU is rapidly transitioning to autonomous renewable energy, it still drains at least $5 trillion a year from fossil fuel imports (partly from the US).
However, there are two nuclear-armed states in Europe that have permanent seats on the United Nations Security Council. You can also act autonomously if you feel like it.
Konstantinos Filis, a history professor at the American College of Greece, said European leaders can still gain autonomy if they respond to external pressure in the right way. “Trump and Putin may actually turn out to shape a new shape of Europe,” he says.
Trade war looms over President Trump
Trump’s pledge to impose a 10% tariff on all imports, including those from Europe, and a 60% tariff on all Chinese imports will be of greater concern, Fieschi said. is thinking.
“We face a double whammy. On the one hand, our security depends on Europe confronting China. “I’m sympathetic to considering very transparent and aggressive measures to reduce the risk of inflation,” he said, calling the tariffs a stick to supplement the carrot of subsidies under President Joe Biden’s Inflation Control Act. .
Bechev agreed, predicting that trade negotiations will be protracted due to fears of a full-scale trade war.
Fieschi believes this attack on European agriculture, manufacturing and trade could ultimately unite Europe’s mainstream and opposition groups. “Mr. (Jordan) Bardera and (Marine) Le Pen have gone out of their way to say, ‘We want to protect Europe,'” he said of the leaders of France’s far-right party, the National Rally.
“They say exactly the same thing as Mr. Macron about strategic autonomy.”
She predicts that concerns about the complete colonization of the European economy by the United States will become even stronger.
“There will be someone who is willing not only to rewrite the rules, but to completely break them,” Fieschi said.
“What this means for Europe is how much time we will spend dragging out disputes before the World Trade Organization and the European Court of Justice. You’ll end up wallowing in self-righteousness with someone who may not really care at all.”
