WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. president typically pays lip service to being the leader of the free world, commanding a strong democracy and military that allies around the world can rally around and reasonably depend on for support in return. I will do things.
That is not the case under President-elect Donald Trump, who has criticized many existing U.S. alliances, but his victory this week for a second term has given Europe’s close partners the ability to become self-reliant and not dependent on U.S. goodwill. Seeking a new era.
“Our security should not be left in the hands of the United States forever,” French President Emmanuel Macron said at a European summit on Thursday.
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Based on President Trump’s first term and campaign statements, the United States has become more unpredictable, more chaotic, colder to allies and warmer to some powerful players, and less selective about its friends globally. It’s going to be much more transactional than it was before. President Trump’s critics and supporters alike say the United States’ position on global affairs and security will fundamentally change.
His supporters argue that he will simply be more cautious about alliances and fights with the United States than previous presidents.
When it comes to America’s role on the world stage, we no longer need to talk about America as the leader of the free world, said Fiona Hill, a former Russian adviser to President Donald Trump and former U.S. president.
Perhaps “The Free World, His Leadership”? Hill suggested this in a recent European Council on Foreign Relations podcast. “I mean, what are we going to lead here?”
President Trump has, with varying degrees of consistency, supported NATO and Ukraine and Taiwan, two threatened democracies that rely on U.S. military assistance to counter Russia and China. The support has been criticized.
President Trump has shown little interest in the United States’ long-standing role as the anchor of strategic alliances with democracies in Europe and the Indo-Pacific. Before the election, partners and adversaries were already reassessing their security posture in preparation for Trump’s possible return.
European allies, in particular, are making efforts to strengthen their own and regional defenses, rather than relying on the United States as a cornerstone of NATO, the mutual defense pact that President Trump and his running mate J.D. Vance have scathingly talked about. Reinforced. Within hours of Trump’s victory over Vice President Kamala Harris, the defense secretaries of France and Germany scheduled talks to address the fallout.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has reinstated a special cabinet committee on Canada-U.S. relations to address concerns about President Trump’s return to office. Kevin Rudd, a former Australian prime minister and current ambassador to the United States whose government is invested in the US defense partnership, deleted an old tweet that included calling President Trump “the most destructive president in American history.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Russian President Vladimir Putin appear to be developing a war strategy in the hope that President Trump will allow them more freedom of action.
Victoria Coats, Trump’s national security adviser during his first term, refuses to portray Trump as an isolationist.
“I think he’s very wise about the application of the U.S. military and the potential for us to get into conflicts that we can’t resolve,” she said recently on a security podcast.
Coats pointed to President Trump’s support for Israel, which is at war with Iranian-backed extremists in Gaza and Lebanon, as evidence of global engagement.
She called Iran’s nuclear program a “biggest concern” abroad, and said Iran’s progress toward a possible nuclear weapon was a sign that President Trump would ratchet up sanctions against Iran in what he called “maximum pressure.” He suggested it meant he may have to take even stronger action than he did in his expanded first term. campaign.
Trump, who has long openly admired President Putin, has consistently pointed to support for Ukraine as a possible change in policy.
Philip Breedlove, a retired Air Force general and top NATO commander, said he sees both positive expectations and deep concerns for Ukraine and NATO over the next four years under the Trump administration.
Breedlove said President Trump’s often harsh NATO rhetoric during his first administration did not lead to an actual reduction in U.S. troops in Europe or a decline in support for the alliance. Additionally, 23 NATO members spend at least 2% of their gross domestic product on defense, compared to 10 countries in 2020, helping counter President Trump’s persistent appeals.
Even more concerning, Breedlove said, is that President Trump has vowed to immediately end the war in Ukraine.
While that goal is noble, “ending the war on the right terms is one thing. Surrendering to the enemy to stop the conflict is another thing. That’s what worries me.” said Breedlove.
They warned that ending the war by giving Russia additional territory in Ukraine would set a bad precedent. European countries are concerned that President Putin will force their countries to follow suit.
So do supporters of democratically run Taiwan, which China has vowed to one day annex by force if necessary. Trump has ranged from insisting that Taiwan should pay the United States for defense aid to insisting that he can’t charm Chinese President Xi Jinping into threatening Taiwan.
“One of the things that worries me about President Trump over the Taiwan Strait is that he relies on unpredictability, that he seems like a chaotic actor in a delicately balanced situation. It’s about being dependent on being,” said Associate Professor Paul Nadeau. Studied international affairs and political science at Temple University Japan Campus.
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The world President Trump faces is also changing, with Russia, North Korea, Iran, and China further strengthening their loose and opportunistic alliances against the West, especially the United States.
In areas where the United States has withdrawn, Russia, China, and sometimes Iran are rapidly expanding their influence, including in the Middle East.
During his first term, President Trump repeatedly pledged to withdraw all U.S. troops from Iraq and Syria, sometimes blindsided Pentagon officials with sudden statements and tweets that left officials groping for answers.
These plans were delayed due to opposition from some Republican lawmakers and counterproposals from U.S. military leaders, including a proposal that some U.S. troops remain in Syria to protect oil resources. The United States still has about 900 troops in Syria, which could be sharply reduced under the Trump administration.
The number of US troops in Iraq has already been reduced under a new agreement between the Biden administration and Baghdad. The plan would end the U.S.-led coalition’s mission to fight the Islamic State group by next year, but could move at least some U.S. troops to northern Iraq to help fight the group in Syria. expensive.
President Trump’s first term, followed by President Joe Biden’s foreign policy, became preoccupied with unsuccessful efforts at a ceasefire in the Middle East, with allies already losing control over their military capabilities and small regional alliances. They began to increase their military power.
“When you factor it into the equation, the United States will be less of a presence on the world stage than it was before,” Hill said. “There can’t be a more dangerous dependency on what’s happening in Washington, D.C.”
Didi Tan and Tara Kopp in Washington and Ayaka McGill in Tokyo contributed.
