From Taiwan to technology, China ponders what will happen under Trump 2.0: NPR

Foshan, China – You might think a businessman like James Chen would care about who is elected president of the United States.

Mr. Chen, 46, runs a company in China that manufactures lighting equipment for export, mainly to the United States. His flagship factory is currently churning out orders of more than 2,000 illuminated bathroom mirrors for hotels in Las Vegas.

When then-President Trump imposed tariffs on Chinese imports in 2018, many of Chen’s lights were subject to a 25% tariff. President Trump has promised to impose tariffs of more than 60% on everything made in China during his second term to protect American industry and jobs.

“Worrying doesn’t help.”

But Chen just shrugs. In 2019, the company moved some of its production to Bangkok, Thailand, which is exempt from tariffs. He said many other companies in the business in China have taken similar steps.

“A 60% tariff would make us invest more in factories in Southeast Asia, especially in my case Thailand,” Chen told NPR from his factory in the southern city of Foshan.

“Whether we export through China, where tariffs are added to the price for consumers, or through Thailand, where higher costs result in higher prices, U.S. customers end up paying less,” he said. “We will have to bear the burden,” he said, adding: It doesn’t help business owners like us to worry about (the US president). ”

Chinese government thinks about the future

But it may be difficult for policymakers in Beijing not to do so, at least when it comes to trade. Rising tariffs could have a major impact on exports, the most active sector of the struggling economy.

In other areas, from Taiwan to technology, the risks and opportunities of the incoming Trump administration are less clear at this point.

“I believe that Beijing, like many other capitals around the world, is now in a position of some kind of pre-emptive defense,” said Peter, author of Substack’s Beijing Studies Newsletter and author of the Center on China and Globalization. said Wang Zicheng, a researcher at . A think tank in Beijing.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping congratulated President Trump and said he hoped the two countries could cooperate well.

But when it comes to trade, analysts say the Chinese government is sending out warning signals.

Jude Blanchett, an expert on China politics at the Center for Strategy and Strategy, said, “There are many ways in which the Chinese government could develop a relatively cautious and coordinated strategy similar to the one it used in the first trade war.” “It sends a message that the United States should not expect that.” International Studies, Washington.

He said he would be far more comfortable using broader punitive retaliatory measures, such as devaluing the currency, punishing U.S. companies and allies, and measures that exacerbate U.S. inflation.

“And of course, Beijing has mapped out all the parliamentary districts. They know exactly where and what industries are, so if they need to target a particular lawmaker, they can , they will,” Blanchett added.

Beyond trade, the most thorny issue in bilateral relations may be Taiwan, an autonomous democracy that Beijing claims is part of China and wants to annex.

Trump angered China in 2016 by receiving a phone call from Taiwan’s president after he was elected. At this time, Taiwan has stated that there are no plans for a telephone conversation.

During his campaign, President Trump questioned why the United States should help defend Taiwan. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, he also said that Mr. Xi respects Mr. Trump and knows that Mr. Trump is “crazy,” so he would not dare to oppose the island. He is hinting that there is not. In contrast, President Biden has said four times that the United States would support China in the event of an attack.

Analysts told NPR that Chinese leaders may also be encouraged by the apparent eagerness of President Trump and his running mate, J.D. Vance, to avoid war in general.

“I don’t know what his views are,” said Shen Dingli, an independent international relations scholar in Shanghai. “He wants to negotiate and use that unpredictability to intimidate and deter the mainland.”

Shen said President Trump will likely need to make peace with others in the Republican Party who feel strongly that the United States should support Taiwan more clearly and strongly.

For example, some believe that President Trump’s former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is being considered for a position in the new administration. Secretary Pompeo has explicitly asked the United States to grant formal diplomatic recognition to Taiwan, a step that would almost certainly trigger a crisis across the Taiwan Strait.

Shen says the key will be who President Trump surrounds himself with.

“I think some of them had problems last time,” he says. “I hope that next time you will distance yourself from such radical people.”

For now, Beijing is predicting consistency and hoping for the best, said Wang of the China Center on Globalization.

“I think the opportunity is that President Trump is being pragmatic. A lot of people would use the word transactional,” he said.

“The risk is that he’s quite unpredictable, and that’s actually potentially very difficult.”