Thanks to Mike Gesicki, one out of three of my bold predictions last week came true. My season record is 8 wins, 18 losses (.308). My batting average for bold predictions is right in the sweet spot. This week’s bold predictions include the quarterback, two teammate wide receivers, and two opposing running backs.
Fantasy Football Week 10 Bold Predictions
Justin Herbert is a top 12 quarterback in Week 10
Los Angeles’ season started with a predictable play call from offensive coordinator Greg Roman. Veteran coach Jim Harbaugh is known for his ground-and-pound tendencies. Through Week 4, the Chargers had the sixth-lowest situational-neutral pass rate (48%) and the ninth-fewest situational-neutral plays per 60 minutes (56), according to RotoViz’s Pace app. Since the Week 5 bye, Los Angeles has the third-highest situational neutral pass rate (62%) and is tied for the sixth-most situational neutral plays per 60 minutes (64).
As expected, Justin Herbert has benefited from this change. Through Week 5, Herbert was 32nd QB in points per game (10.6). Since Week 6, he is QB14 in points per game (18.0). Additionally, Herbert has scored 24.1 and 19.5 fantasy points in his last two games, finishing as QB9 in Week 8 and QB12 in Week 9.
The Week 10 Expert Consensus Ranking (ECR) ranks him as the No. 18 QB. However, I project Herbert to finish as a top-12 quarterback against a pass funnel defense. Since Week 6, the Titans have the fourth-highest situational-neutral pass rate (62%). Herbert can make them pay for their pass funnel tendencies.
Amari Cooper outperforms Khalil Shakir in all scoring formats
The Bills, like the Chargers, dialed up their passing. Since Week 7, Buffalo has the fourth-highest situational-neutral pass rate (63%). This week, the Bills also rank third-highest in implied total (26.0). So it could be a productive week for Buffalo’s pass-catching weapons.
In ECR, Khalil Shakir is WR24 in standard, WR23 in half PPR, and WR23 in Week 10 PPR, while Amari Cooper is WR32, WR33, and WR34, respectively. Shaquill has the benefit of more career reps with Josh Allen, who was sidelined last week with a wrist injury.
Cooper participated in limited practice until Thursday, preparing for his return, but he will be crucial to Buffalo’s passing attack if Keon Coleman is sidelined with an injury. It’s no surprise that Shaquille ranked higher than Cooper.
But digging deeper into this matchup is encouraging for Cooper’s outlook and discouraging for Shaquille’s. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, in Cooper’s two games with the Bills (Weeks 7 and 8), he went wide 88.6% of the time, while Shaquille went wide just 30.4% of the time. It was %. Shaquille entered the slot at a 61.5% clip. Meanwhile, Indy has faced the eighth-highest target rate among wides (42.2%) and lowest target rate among wides (25.0%) since Week 6.
It makes sense for the team to avoid targeting the Colts for a spot. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Kenny Moore played 258 snaps in the slot compared to 138 snaps wide, making him Indy’s best cornerback. Unless Allen wants to make life more difficult for himself, aiming for the corners around Indy is an easier path to success. Conversely, Cooper should be busier than Shaquille. Gamers choosing between Cooper and Shaquille in leagues or DFS contests during the season should choose Cooper.
James Conner outscored Breece Hall in all scoring formats in Week 10
Breece Hall hasn’t lived up to his lofty preseason expectations, and things have gotten worse lately. Since Davante Adams joined Gang Green’s offense in Week 7, Hall has been RB15 in standard points per game (12.5), RB19 in half PPR points per game (14.0), and RB19 in standard points per game (14.0). Tied for RB19 (15.5) in PPR points.
Interestingly, James Conner directly outperformed Hall in each of these formats since Week 7, ranking as RB14, RB18, and RB18 in Standard, Half PPR, and PPR. Despite this, Hall is RB7 in ECR across all scoring formats, and Conner is standard RB17, RB16, RB17, half PPR, PPR this week.
The Jets are the favorites with a 1.5-point lead over the host Cardinals. Still, the difference between Hall and Conner doesn’t pass the sniff test. The Jets are a pass-happy team, and the Cardinals are a run-happy team. Since Week 7, the Jets are tied for the ninth-lowest situational rushing rate (41%) and the Cardinals are tied for the fourth-highest rate (53%).
Additionally, each team attacked the Cardinals from the air and the Jets from the ground. Since Week 7, the University of Arizona’s defense has been tied for the second-highest situational-neutral passing rate (65%) against them, and New York University has faced the fifth-highest situational-neutral rushing rate (52%). are. Finally, Conner has been a more productive runner than Hall this year, and the latter’s PPR scam was dried up by the No. 2 target Hog wideout. As a result, I expect Conner to outperform Hall in every format this week.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. To learn more about Josh, check out his archives and follow @BChad50.
