Almost a month before the November 5th election, I predicted that Donald Trump would win and wrote about it in several articles. My “prediction” caused some controversy, especially after polls showed a close race between Harris and Trump. Understandably, in recent days people have asked how I could have made a call that at the time had no empirical basis for some and was an attack on political sensibilities for others. asked me.
It’s not really rocket science. Inflation was truly rampant, with cumulative inflation exceeding 20 percent over four years. I went to New York to teach for six weeks almost every spring and was shocked to see how much prices had gone up from the previous year. It was possible to gauge the mood of the public by shopping at the supermarket. There, the joy of shopping, America’s great pastime, was gone, and people trudged down the aisles, grimacing as they stared at food prices that seemed to rise every week. .
When I turned on the TV, I saw images of migrants crossing the border with Mexico in droves and images of Border Patrol agents shaking their heads. Middle-class people in the Northeast suddenly woke up shocked to find themselves in their midst, but they were sent there courtesy of the governors of the border states, who called them “blue They continued to give televised speeches justifying their actions by saying they wanted to give “people from blue states” a taste for “people from blue states.” About “unrestricted immigration” brought about by Democratic Party policies.
And, especially after October 2023, there are concerns that the United States may become drawn into an escalating Middle East war, and that the Biden administration may lose control of Middle East policy toward Israel, causing domestic unrest. There were very real concerns. Videos of confrontations and mass arrests on campus were brought into our living rooms every night. And in the final weeks before the vote, Israel bombed Lebanon, carried out strategic assassinations in Iran and elsewhere, and then bombed Iran’s homeland, indicating that Tel Aviv intends to draw the United States and the Biden administration into active combat. There was a widespread sense of alarm that this might be the case. I had no choice but to watch.
The general feeling when I spoke to the public in the spring was a loss of control, that the Biden administration had lost control of the economy, the border, and foreign and defense policy. This feeling that there is no one trustworthy to steer the ship of the nation has only deepened over the summer and fall, with Biden’s abysmal debate performance and Harris’ succession to the presidential nomination. By early October, Trump was winning not because he had a more appealing vision of the future, but because he was able to exploit and redirect people’s fears about the economy, the border, and war. That was clear. It has turned into an aggressively negative force against the Democratic Party. Just as the 2020 election was a vote against the chaos of the first president, Trump, the 2024 election was primarily a vote against the incompetence of the Democratic Party.
If you agree with this admittedly impressionistic analysis, then you know two things. First, election results were determined primarily by the public’s response to inevitable factors such as inflation, border chaos, and the threat of war. Second, contrary to the panicked reactions of some liberal commentators, this was not a vote for fascism or authoritarianism. Although, of course, the Trump vote included far-right elements.
That’s good news. The bad news is that the far-right MAGA crowd is trying to convert this protest vote into a far-right governing program that, if successful, will make American-style liberal democracy a thing of the past. Fortunately, the American people have democratic common sense, despite its flaws. But it will take good progressive leadership to bring that common sense to the forefront and turn it into an energetic political force. And related to this, there is another piece of good news. A generation of discredited Democratic Party leaders who advocated neoliberal policies in conjunction with the promotion of a liberal empire – Clinton, Obama, Pelosi, Biden, Harris – will eventually be tossed aside. And the stage is set for the emergence of a new generation of young progressive leaders, unfettered by past ideologies and policy paradigms.
The great Italian Marxist Antonio Gramsci said this about the early 20th century, and this holds true today as well. “The old world is dying, and the new world is struggling to be born. This is the age of monsters.” Opportunity and crisis are twins. You can’t reach a new world without defeating monsters…and there’s no guarantee of victory.
But I’m not perfect. I expected a Trump victory, but I didn’t expect how bloody it would be.
