Explaining Trump’s influence on world politics

Although the results are not yet in, if Donald Trump wins the 2024 presidential election and regains the presidency, it could fundamentally change international politics.

Mr. Trump has made it clear during his campaign that he believes major changes are needed in U.S. foreign policy. In September, President Trump told an audience at a campaign event in Wisconsin: “We’ve been treated badly primarily by our allies…Our allies actually treat us worse than our so-called enemies.” spoke. “In the military, we protect them, but then they ruin us in trade. We’re not going to tolerate that anymore.”

It’s not an empty promise. The president has wide discretion over foreign policy and can unilaterally enter or break many international agreements.

“Each agreement really varies in terms of what the criteria for withdrawal are, but very few require Congressional approval to withdraw,” said Jennifer Kavanaugh, senior research fellow and director of military analysis at Defense Priorities. told Box. .

In his first term, President Trump pursued what he called an “America First” foreign policy, withdrawing from major international agreements, starting a trade war with China, verbally antagonizing allies, and Attempted complex negotiations with several hostile countries.

This campaign season, he has warned against any attempts to dramatically alter or disrupt international agreements, including the NATO security alliance, in ways that could fundamentally undermine the United States’ place in the world order. I promised to continue.

Of President Trump’s stated foreign policy positions, his proposed protectionist trade policies will likely cause the most direct harm to the American people. His proposed tariff increases would spark a global trade war and drive up prices for American consumers. In the long run, his ideas about America’s role in international affairs could erode American diplomacy and weaken institutions such as NATO and the United Nations. That, like the foreign policy decisions of his first term, could have a lasting impact on the geopolitical landscape.

A brief explanation of the isolationist Trump administration

During his first term, from 2017 to 2021, President Trump withdrew the United States from multiple international agreements, including the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), often referred to as the Iran deal. The deal, negotiated in 2015 under President Barack Obama, effectively eased U.S. sanctions on Iran in exchange for scaling back its nuclear program and increasing international oversight. .

When the deal ended in 2018, President Trump said, “The Iran deal was one of the worst and most one-sided deals the United States has ever entered into.” Since then, Iran has been building up its stockpile of enriched uranium and increasing its stockpile of enriched uranium. The program reportedly brings Iran much closer to developing a nuclear capability with missile supplies, despite the Trump administration’s promise that it would never possess such capability.

President Trump also withdrew the United States from the Paris Climate Accord, which commits all signatories to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Other diplomatic sacrifices of the Trump administration include the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF), a Cold War-era agreement between the United States and Russia that limits the development of short- and intermediate-range nuclear weapons. The Open Skies Treaty allows signatory countries to conduct military reconnaissance in the skies. and two international migration agreements.

President Trump also repeatedly criticized NATO during his first term. Vice President Camara argued that other countries in the military alliance were not spending enough on defense (and had actually begun to increase spending) and questioned whether the organization was still needed, adding that in 2020 Approximately 10,000 troops stationed in Germany were withdrawn. Philip Gordon, Harris’ foreign policy adviser, said the proposal “is intended to send a message about the limits of how much Americans can spend to protect foreign borders and maintain global order more broadly.” He said it seems like it.

What President Trump can do in his second term

In his second term, President Trump has pledged to once again withdraw from international agreements and organizations.

He explicitly committed to withdrawing the United States from the Paris climate accord again after the United States rejoined the accord under President Joe Biden. And President Trump could limit U.S. cooperation with U.N. agencies that his administration has been critical of, such as the World Health Organization. He has also proposed a range of new tariffs, at times calling for new taxes of up to 20% on U.S. trading partners, and most recently imposing a maximum tax on Mexico, the U.S.’s largest merchandise trading partner, in 2024. They are threatening to impose 100% tariffs.

One partnership that will be difficult for President Trump to change is the U.S.-NATO agreement. There is no withdrawal mechanism in the NATO Charter. As Kavanaugh explained, “Congress recently passed NATO-specific legislation that would require Congressional approval for withdrawal from NATO, to further protect America’s alliance members.”

Even with such safeguards, it is unlikely that a second Trump administration would hollow out NATO and other U.S. military agreements, such as agreements between the U.S., South Korea, and Japan aimed at deterring China and North Korea. be.

“Trump could decide to change the U.S. stance on any country, whether it’s Asia or Europe, and he could make any decisions to withdraw troops, close bases, maintain some kind of joint infrastructure or alliances. “Running keeps us connected to our allies and partners. We can stop investing in infrastructure and logistics,” Kavanaugh said. “Any president could do that.”

But ignoring NATO and alienating these allies is the only way the Trump administration could damage U.S. foreign policy and diplomacy, according to James Lindsay, senior fellow for U.S. foreign policy at the Council on Foreign Relations. It is not the only way.

“A lot of it depends on how he staffs his administration,” Lindsay told Box. “We don’t really know who’s going to be secretary of state, secretary of defense, (or) national security adviser.” It can have a significant impact on all kinds of foreign policy decisions, from whether or not transfers occur) to which countries receive arms transfers.

In the absence of a robust and experienced diplomatic apparatus, Mr. Trump may try to negotiate foreign policy largely on his own, as he has in the past. Such attempts to negotiate with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un ended in 2019 with no guarantee that North Korea would halt its nuclear weapons program and without any fundamental change in the relationship. The results were not good. His talks with the Taliban led to the withdrawal of American and NATO forces and the collapse of Afghanistan’s civilian government.

President Trump has made big promises about how he will negotiate as president, including ending the war between Russia and Ukraine within 24 hours, but as in his first term, the reality is that the negotiations are much more difficult than before. It is likely to be much more difficult and troublesome. He suggested it.