Many anxious U.S. election observers constantly update their forecasts from 538 in the final days before polls close, so their focus is on the presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. As is the trend, voting websites’ predictions for House and Senate battles are gaining traction. The situation is even more worrying for Democrats.
As of Saturday night, the 538 number gives Trump a 50% chance of winning the presidential election, while giving Republicans a comfortable 90% chance of regaining the Senate majority and keeping the House majority. Gender is 52%.
These numbers reflect a chilling reality for Americans on the left. Republicans have a good chance of gaining not only the White House but full control of Congress.
Even if Trump loses a majority in both houses of Congress, a presidential election victory would give him significant control over U.S. foreign policy and the composition of the federal government, both of which he could reform. We are aiming for
But a three-way Republican Party in Washington would give President Trump broader powers to implement legislative policy. As outlined by the Guardian through the Stake Project, President Trump’s plans include extending tax cuts, reversing landmark legislation signed by Joe Biden, and advancing a right-wing cultural agenda.
One of Republicans’ most frequently repeated campaign promises is to extend the tax cuts President Trump signed into law in 2017, many of which are set to expire at the end of 2025. An analysis by the nonpartisan Institute on Taxation and Economics found that the policy would cost $288.5 billion in 2026 alone to make the tax cuts permanent and would disproportionately benefit higher-income households. The highest-earning 20% of Americans would receive nearly two-thirds of that tax benefit, while the lowest-earning 20% of Americans would receive only 1%.
Perhaps the most vexing possibility for Democrats is that Republicans could use their governing triumvirate in Washington to enact a nationwide anti-abortion law. President Trump has said he would veto such a policy, but his repeated statements on the issue have raised doubts about that claim. Research shows existing abortion bans force doctors to provide substandard care and are responsible for the deaths of at least four women: Josely Varnica, Nevaeh Crain, Candy Miller and Amber Thurman. is blamed on doctors.
With majorities in both chambers, Republicans could also allocate vast resources to support President Trump’s plan to deport millions of illegal immigrants, a centerpiece of his re-election platform. Although U.S. courts have recognized that presidents have significant discretion in determining immigration policy, President Trump would need to appropriate significant funds from Congress to carry out such a large-scale deportation operation. Probably.
“America is now an occupied country,” President Trump said at a recent rally in Atlanta. “But November 5, 2024 will be American Liberation Day.”
In addition to advancing Trump’s policies, Republicans are almost certainly trying to unravel key parts of Biden’s legacy, including legislation to curb inflation. Because the IRA represented the country’s most significant response to the climate crisis to date and spurred large energy-related investments in many districts, some Republicans hoped Congress would keep some of the law’s provisions in place. It proposes that other provisions be repealed.
The challenge reflects a potential problem if Republicans gain full control of Congress: what to do with the Affordable Care Act (ACA). The last time Republicans held a governing trifecta during the first two years of the Trump administration, they tried and failed to repeal and replace the ACA. Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson recently suggested that if Republicans win a landslide on Tuesday, “Obamacare will go away,” according to a video released by NBC News.
But he told supporters, “The ACA is so deeply ingrained that we need major reform to make it work, and we’ve got a lot of ideas on how to do that.” It seemed like he was warning her of this statement.
Election experts widely expect this year’s House and Senate battles to be particularly close, as both parties have struggled in recent years to govern with narrow legislative majorities. The concerns of two moderate members of the caucus, Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, despite Democrats holding a majority during Biden’s first two years in office. , his proposed legislation was repeatedly blocked in the Senate.
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Even in 2017, when Republicans held a 52-48 majority in the Senate, they were unable to repeal and replace the ACA because three members of the conference blocked the proposal. Two of them, Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, are still in the Senate and could resist various elements of President Trump’s policies, particularly a potential abortion ban. There is.
Despite a possible challenge from a narrow majority, Trump has made it clear on numerous occasions that if he wins on Tuesday, he will use the full power of his presidential powers.
“With your vote this November, we will remove Kamala from office and save America,” President Trump said at a recent rally in State College, Pennsylvania. “We will never back down and we will never surrender.”
Voters will have the final say Tuesday on how much power Mr. Trump and his party will have in January.
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