Election week is here. Here’s what Vox’s political writers are focusing on

Good morning and welcome to election week! Tens of millions of people have already voted early, and tens of millions more will head to the polls tomorrow when Americans decide whether to become the next president of the United States, between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. It will be.

Between presidential elections, congressional races, and voting measures, there are many issues at stake in this election, from the economy to women’s health care to civil rights to the future of immigrants and their families. If you’re feeling particularly anxious this week, be sure to check out our article on the unique fear of political instability and how to deal with it.

And follow Today, Explained all week long to get election results and analysis delivered straight to your inbox, with writers breaking down what the news means for the country and you.

But first, we’re gearing up to preview the themes, races and storylines our politics and policy team will be watching closely throughout the week.

Andrew Prokop, Senior Political Correspondent

I watch with increasing alarm how Mr. Trump and those around him are confident of victory, and how if he loses it will mean the election was stolen. It’s here. My question is, if Harris wins by a narrow margin, how many of his supporters will ultimately mobilize and how far will he advance? As I wrote last week, there are several procedural and legal reasons to expect a challenge to President Trump in 2024 to be even less successful than in 2020, but they will ultimately matter less than force or partisanship. There are real risks.

Patrick Reis, Senior Politics and Thought Editor

I’m curious to know what the voting breakdown looks like among young men, especially young men voting in their first election. Kamala Harris has a strong lead among young women and has a high approval rating among young voters overall, but a New York Times/Siena College poll shows that she has a strong lead among young men overall. Donald Trump is winning (58% to 37%). There’s a reason Trump and J.D. Vance appeared on Joe Rogan’s podcast (hugely popular, especially among young men), and Tim Walz appeared on World of Warcraft’s Twitch stream. There’s a reason why I did it. Campaigns are trying to figure out where these voters are.

Rachel Cohen, Policy Correspondent

Ten states have abortion bills on the ballot, making it one of the biggest opportunities for voters to make their voices heard on the issue since Roe v. Wade was repealed. Some would overturn states’ blanket bans on abortion, while others would strengthen protections against future restrictions on reproductive rights.

One of the most anticipated contests is Florida, where abortion is almost completely banned. Advocates in Florida have raised more than $100 million to restore access to the unborn child’s lifespan (approximately 22 to 24 weeks), but the measure, known as Amendment 4, was approved by 60 percent of voters. are required and have high standards to meet.

Zach Beauchamp, senior correspondent and author of Vox’s “On the Light” newsletter

There are two X factors I’m looking for to determine whether Harris is topping the polls. The first is North Carolina, where President Trump is supported but Republicans have nominated Mark Robinson, a self-proclaimed “black Nazi”, as governor, a sure loser. Will Ms. Harris get a “reverse coattail” effect where voters abandon Mr. Robinson and vote for her, or will there be a large number of people splitting their votes at the gubernatorial and state level?

The second is Puerto Rican voters in Pennsylvania. The Puerto Rican community appears to have rallied in response to the “floating island of trash” comment in a way they have never seen so late in a presidential election. Given that there are approximately 473,000 Puerto Ricans in Pennsylvania alone, significant anti-Trump turnout among this group could ultimately create a crisis situation.

Christian Paz, Senior Political Reporter

Imagine a situation where we see a significant shift to the right among Latino voters in places like California, Illinois, Texas, Florida, and New York, but not as much in swing states where Latino voters generally shift to the right. It’s not impossible either. Rather, it leans toward the Democratic Party. I wonder how Latino voters will fare this election, and whether there will be further ideological segmentation (Latino moderates and conservatives shifting to the Republican Party), and where it will be decisive. , very interested.

Given how young this electorate is, it will also be interesting to see whether voter participation increases, as the Trump campaign hopes, meaning higher turnout among non-voters.

Abdallah Fayyad, policy correspondent and author of Vox’s “Within Our Means” newsletter

Arab Americans make up hundreds of thousands of voters in key battleground states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, and they have tended to vote Democratic in recent cycles. I’m paying attention to how Israel’s war in Gaza will affect voters. Some polls show Donald Trump with a slight lead over Kamala Harris. While many of those voters are concerned about the possibility of Trump becoming president again, there is also a sense that Democrats will have to face the consequences of the election for what the Biden administration has done on Gaza. One pollster told me that the vote to “punish Democrats” may be smaller than we expected. But even then, he says, “that’s a huge amount of votes that would be left with Democrats.”

Ian Millhiser, Senior Correspondent

One of the biggest things that keeps me up at night is that the Supreme Court’s Republican majority (the same majority that recently ruled that President Donald Trump was allowed to commit criminal acts during his time in office) decided that Harris If it were legitimate, they would try to overturn the election. winner. Realistically, this outcome could only happen if the election was very close. The Supreme Court picked the winner of Florida’s nail-biting 2000 election. Biden won the 2020 election by a wide enough margin that the court maintained its hand in an election that would have required flipping three states to deny Biden’s victory.

Nicole Narea, Senior Reporter, Politics and Society

President Trump’s closing argument stoked fears about criminal immigration, threatened mass deportations, and racially charged with lies such as lies that Haitians eat pets and claims that immigrants are “tainting the blood” of the nation. It’s a reuse of Trump’s 2016 campaign on steroids, including racist attacks. By deploying such extreme rhetoric, he was able to push Harris, and the entire Democratic Party, further to the right on immigration.

That’s despite the fact that his portrayal of immigrants is not based in reality. Border crossings decreased significantly throughout 2024. Still, Republicans could interpret the election results as vindication or condemnation of President Trump’s approach.

Angela Chen, Senior Editor, Policy and Ideas

I follow many important races, but I’m always interested in what’s happening in my home state of California, especially when it comes to housing. This year, that means focusing on Proposition 33, which expands rent controls, and Proposition 5, which lowers voting standards to make it easier for local governments to build affordable housing. Then there is proposition 3, which is purely symbolic. This would repeal Proposition 8, the infamous anti-same-sex marriage bill that was passed when I was too young to vote against it.